Biden holds 4-point lead over Trump in Minnesota survey

President Biden holds a 4-point lead over former President Trump in a hypothetical general election match-up in Minnesota, according to a survey of likely voters in the state published Monday.

In the Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 poll — conducted June 3-5 — 45 percent of likely voters in Minnesota supported Biden, 41 percent supported Trump, 6 percent supported Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 2 percent supported “someone else,” if the election were to be held today.

Minnesota has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since former President Nixon in 1972, but Trump has recently set his sights on the state. He nearly won Minnesota in 2016, when he fell 1.5 percentage points short of beating Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. In 2020, however, he lost the state to Biden by 7 percentage points.

“We’re going to win this state,” Trump said last month in a speech at the state GOP’s annual Lincoln Reagan Dinner in St. Paul.

“This November the people of Minnesota are going to tell Crooked Joe Biden — right? ‘The Apprentice’? ’You’re fired!’” Trump said in the speech, referencing his former reality television show and the catchphrase he used on it.

In the new poll, both candidates largely retained their supporters from 2020: Biden held on to 87 percent of his 2020 voters, with 1 percent supporting Trump, 5 percent supporting Kennedy and 2 percent supporting someone else; Trump kept 89 percent of his 2020 voters, with 2 percent now backing Biden and 4 percent backing Kennedy.

Independent respondents were split, with 35 percent supporting Biden, 37 percent supporting Trump and 13 percent supporting Kennedy.

In contrast to recent national polling, Biden appears to be performing better among younger voters surveyed in the poll, while Trump got support from older Americans. Among adults ages 18-34, Biden garnered 53 percent support, Trump got 35 percent and Kennedy got 7 percent. Among adults 65 and older, Trump led with 51 percent, Biden got 38 percent and Kennedy got 5 percent.

The poll found a significant enthusiasm gap between voters who said they plan on voting for one of the two candidates. Prospective Trump 2024 voters were two times as likely to say they are “very enthusiastic” about voting for their candidate, at 62 percent, as Biden 2024 voters, at 31 percent.

Biden voters in the survey overwhelmingly listed “protecting democracy” as the most influential issue in deciding how to vote, at 47 percent. The second most influential issue was climate change and the environment, which was selected by 15 percent of Biden voters.

Trump voters were split on “economy and jobs,” which 40 percent listed, and “immigration,” which 33 percent did.

In The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s polling average, Biden narrowly leads Trump in Minnesota with 45.5 percent support compared to the former president’s 44.9 percent.

The Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 poll included 800 registered voters in Minnesota who indicated they were likely to vote in the November election. The margin of error is 3.4 percentage points.