Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) is fighting for political survival in the ugliest Democratic primary of the cycle, as his political future — and the party’s progressive power — hang in the balance.
The race for New York’s 16th Congressional District has pitted Bowman, a progressive, against centrist George Latimer, who has the backing of high-profile figures like Hillary Clinton, in an explosive and expensive fight that has put competing special interests, outside spending and personal attacks front and center.
Polls suggest Bowman, a member of the “squad,” is in serious danger of losing after his criticism of Israel sparked an all-in effort to remove him from Congress. Some are warning that this could be the end for the outspoken progressive lawmaker’s run in the House.
“He’s super vulnerable,” said a Democratic campaign strategist working to reelect Bowman. “He’s not necessarily the most liked internally.”
“Folks think that he’s not going to win,” the strategist added grimly.
The Tuesday primary has emerged as one of 2024’s biggest litmus tests on the topic of Israel. Unlike other contests that have tested the strength of leftist insurgencies against the establishment, the race for the Westchester County-Bronx district is not being fought over nuances in support for President Biden or economic issues such as health care and education reform.
Instead, it’s centered around the conflict in the Middle East after Hamas launched an attack in Israel on Oct. 7, killing nearly 1,000 Israeli civilians and sparking an Israeli response that has led to tens of thousands of Palestinian deaths. The conflict has deepened a long-running split in the Democratic Party, where staunchly pro-Israel Democrats find themselves at odds with those on the left who are incensed at the mounting number of civilian deaths in the Gaza strip.
“It’s definitely become a big dividing line,” said Sam Drzymala, founder of Progressive Victory, a network of online content creators that hosted a rally for Bowman this weekend.
“Israel-Palestine has driven a lot of interest and energy and the long-term implications of the race are far larger than just one issue,” Drzymala added.
Bowman’s primary is emerging as the latest flash point in the intraparty debate.
While Latimer has not snagged any endorsements from Bowman’s House colleagues, some of them are openly criticizing the incumbent and have warned they might wade into the race as Tuesday inches closer.
Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.), who represents the neighboring 15th District, got into a public spat with his fellow New Yorker after Bowman, during a podcast interview last week, said Torres was “very calculated” and “trying to gain political power for himself towards an ultimate objective” when discussing his stance on Israel.
Torres shot back, suggesting an endorsement against the incumbent could be on the horizon.
“I have a general rule of not weighing in against a Congressional Democrat who has not weighed in against me,” he said in a statement. “But Bowman’s gratuitous attack on my character might cause me to rethink that rule. Stay tuned.”
Meanwhile, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, a Jewish Democrat from Florida, declined to take a stance in the New York race when asked about it on CNN last week but did not shy away from bashing her House colleague over his position on Israel.
“All I’ll say about that race is that it is terribly, terribly unacceptable that the rhetoric that Jamaal Bowman has used — he’s engaged in antisemitic rhetoric,” Wasserman-Schultz said, claiming that he has “engaged in conduct unbecoming of a member of Congress, and it’s terribly unfortunate.”
“His constituents will have to decide whether they want to return him to the Congress,” she added.
On the other hand, fellow progressive former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.) did endorse Latimer, igniting a firestorm among left-wing lawmakers and activists who saw it as an affront. Jones himself is trying to reenter the halls of Congress in the 17th Congressional District on Tuesday.
Amid the mudslinging, the progressive coalition from Washington to New York City is playing defense, pulling out all the stops to make sure Bowman survives the brutal, uphill climb to secure a third term.
He has two of the left’s most influential elected figureheads — Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) — in his corner, with the pair hosting a rally for him in the sweltering heat in the Bronx on Saturday.
The Bronx is a place of significance to all three Democrats: Ocasio-Cortez grew up there, while Sanders was the first presidential candidate in decades to visit the area during his 2016 bid. Bowman, a middle school principal in his past life, is counting on residents in the district to receive his surrogates warmly.
Both leaders have framed the race in part as a fight against the influence of special interests in primaries — specifically, the spending from pro-Israel groups that have targeted lawmakers on both sides of the aisle over their stances on the war.
Members of the left have long sought to push back against the influence of groups such as the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), which have poured millions of dollars into candidates that support their cause. The progressive effort against AIPAC and related groups mirrors their years-long push for other forms of corporate reform.
“Big money, from AIPAC to Wall Street, have poured millions to buy this election,” Ocasio-Cortez wrote in a post on the social platform X, advertising the rally with Sanders.
“They have great influence,” Bowman told the “Night School” podcast last week when discussing pro-Israel lobbying groups.
He went on to argue that if he entered Congress in 2021 as a reliable supporter of Israel, his political future would look different.
“If I came in on some tweeting in support of Israel all the time, like when I first got in … my bank account, first of all, would be flushed, right? To the point where the left — ’cause I would then be on the right, so the left would, like, not really want to challenge me because I would have a flush bank account,” he added.
Progressives see the shattered financial records as a key indication of the interest in the race and the dynamics at play over Israel. A tally of spending by AdTrak, a political metrics tracking site, noted the race has “seen over $23M in spending and reservations, making it the most expensive House primary ever,” according to a post on X. United Democracy Project, AIPAC’s super PAC, contributed the vast majority of that funding, at just more than $14 million.
That’s seven times the amount Bowman’s campaign spent, according to the tracker.
“That issue has been hugely galvanizing on a lot of different sides, including a huge amount of debate,” Drzymala said.
Bowman, who has been fending off other scandals this term, from pulling a fire alarm in the House to apologizing for saying allegations of rape of Israeli women were a “lie,” has seen signs that his standing is slipping with voters over the past several months.
“As soon as I got the additional information from the U.N., we condemned the sexual violence, we voted to condemn it, and we’re continuing to do the work,” Bowman told WNYC this week.
A poll from Emerson College/The Hill/PIX-11 taken earlier this month shows Latimer, the Westchester County executive, up a significant 17 points over Bowman among likely voters, a rare advantage for a lesser-known candidate challenging an incumbent. But the poll also found a large chunk of voters — 21 percent — were undecided.
Another survey conducted by Mellman Group, which runs the Democratic Majority for Israel super PAC, shows the same 17-point figure.
Bowman was one of the Democratic caucus’s earliest supporters of a cease-fire, pushing for an end to the fighting when many in the party felt Israel had not adequately responded to the deadly attack on its civilians. As those calls amplified among other progressives in and out of Congress, Bowman doubled down in his support.
Latimer’s approach has been to suggest that Bowman’s words against the conservative government in Israel hamper its right to exist and weaken the United States’s top Middle East ally. Bowman, for example, does not support increasing financial support for the Iron Dome.
Bowman, meanwhile, has repeatedly accused Latimer of using racist dog whistles. He slammed the moderate for a remark that Bowman’s “constituency is in Dearborn, Mich.” — a largely Arab-American city — and alleged Latimer was trying to characterize him as an “angry Black man.”
Some argue Bowman is not on the same footing as other progressive Democrats whose fates have been tested by pro-Israel and moderate rivals. Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.) won her primary bid this cycle, and Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) has a fundraising advantage and earned critical endorsements leading up to her primary in August.
“These other ones have always constantly been challenged,” said the Democratic strategist about vulnerable “squad” members. “They keep winning” — but Bowman, the source noted, may be the exception.
“I think he’s super vulnerable, and that’s why folks are putting money behind us … to go out and do work for him on the side,” the source added. “The prognostication game to me is always scary.”