100 days out from Election Day: Here’s what to watch

Sunday marks 100 days until voters head to the polls for what has already been a tumultuous election, raising questions about what the next several months will hold in store. 

In a span of less than a month, the presidential race has already been rocked by a series of head-spinning twists, including President Biden’s dismal debate performance, the assassination attempt against former President Trump and Biden’s decision to withdraw and endorse Vice President Harris. 

Now all eyes will be watching how the next three months unfold. Here’s what to watch in the last 100 days of the race: 

Whom does Harris pick for VP? 

With Harris consolidating support from Democratic officials and delegates to likely become the party’s nominee, attention has mostly shifted to whom she will select as her running mate. 

Vetting materials have been requested from politicians such as Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D), Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly (D), Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D). 

Whoever is chosen will oppose Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), Trump’s running mate, on the GOP side, at least indirectly if not at a debate, which has not yet been scheduled.

Beshear has become perhaps one of the most prominent attack dogs since Biden officially stepped aside on Sunday, slamming Vance as a “phony” who is not “one of us,” referring to those from Appalachia, the geographic region surrounding the Appalachian Mountains. Kentucky and Ohio neighbor each other. 

Kelly has also gone after Vance for his stance on the Russia-Ukraine war and comments Vance made in 2021 that resurfaced in which he said “childless cat ladies” were running the country. 

Democratic strategists said several of the names under consideration would be strong choices who would help expand the map for the party and improve performance in key states like Pennsylvania. The top names seem to comprise more moderate candidates who would potentially bring more of an ideological balance to the ticket. 

“Each of those candidates is going to bring new voters along with them, whereas Vance’s selection did the opposite,” said Democratic strategist Jeff Rusnak, arguing that Vance only appeals further to “extreme” conservatives. 

Do Trump and Harris debate? 

Biden’s poor performance at what ended up being one of the most consequential presidential debates in U.S. history sparked a string of developments that caused Biden to step away from the race. While the Biden and Trump campaigns had already agreed to participate in a second debate in September on ABC, plans for that event or any others appear up in the air. 

The Biden campaign had earlier said that Harris had accepted an invitation from CBS News for a vice-presidential debate in August. But the Trump campaign refused to commit to a date while it said uncertainty remained as to who would be on the Democratic ticket. 

Since the switch from Biden to Harris, Trump has railed against the choice of ABC to host the presidential debate, accusing the network of being biased and not “worthy” of holding a debate. But he added that he hopes for “many” debates and suggested that Fox News should host the next one. 

Still, the Trump campaign said Thursday that it would not set a debate with Harris until Democrats “formally” decide on their nominee, which could come as soon as early next month if the Democratic National Committee moves forward with its virtual roll call ahead of its convention. 

Harris has responded that she is “ready to go” and accused Trump of “backpedaling” after already agreeing to participate. 

“I have agreed to the previously agreed upon Sept. 10 debate. He agreed to that previously,” Harris told reporters. “Now, here he is backpedaling, and I’m ready, and I think the voters deserve to see the split screen that exists in this race on a debate stage, and so I’m ready. Let’s go.” 

Do the polls shift? 

Throughout much of the 2024 cycle — until the debate — polling between Trump and Biden remained largely stagnant. Just ahead of the debate, the two candidates were essentially tied in national polling, while Trump led by a few points in the key battleground states that will likely decide the election. 

After Biden stepped aside, election models, including the one from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill, went dark to wait for more data to have a better analysis on where the race stands now. The Democrats rallying around Harris came after an assassination attempt on Trump, the Republican National Convention and an incumbent president choosing not to run for reelection closer to Election Day than in any other cycle in modern U.S. history. 

As nominating conventions also typically cause a short-term bump in a candidate’s poll numbers, multiple major events that could affect the race are coalescing at once, with uncertain effects. 

“This was thought to be a sleepy grudge match between two cranky old men, and now it has become a red-hot race again,” said Republican strategist Matthew Bartlett. “Nothing has changed, but everything has changed.” 

Some early polling has shown signs of optimism for Harris and Democrats. Surveys have suggested Harris is making some gains against Trump in key states compared to Biden.

Polling released Friday also showed more comfortable leads in the traditionally blue states of New Hampshire and Maine, which Republicans had begun to target as Biden struggled. 

The Trump campaign’s pollster released a memo Tuesday arguing that Harris will see a temporary polling bump because of a “Harris Honeymoon” period where she receives constant coverage in media. He said it will last until the race settles down, and that the “fundamentals” of the race have not changed. 

Democrats say they recognize the race will still be tight but have new optimism after the switch. 

“I think what we’ve seen is it’s going to be an enormously close race,” said Democratic strategist Justin Barasky. “I don’t think that’s changed. I don’t think anyone, especially with the campaign, would say anything differently, but it’s clear that Republicans are concerned, and I’d rather be us than them.” 

Are there any more surprises? 

As fast as Election Day is approaching, it is still more than three months away. Labor Day, the traditional marker of races reaching their final sprint, hasn’t even arrived yet. As chaotic as the past month has been, it’s not inconceivable that more could still happen to change what defines the 2024 election. 

When Biden was still in the race, he and Trump were set to be the two oldest major party nominees in history, meaning both had an at least somewhat higher than normal chance of a health event forcing them from the race. That remains true for Trump, who is now the oldest nominee in history. 

Following the Trump rally shooting, members of both parties called for toning down rhetoric to lower the intensity of the political environment. But both sides have lambasted the opposing candidate since then, signaling a return to the environment that both sides seemed to acknowledge could lead to more political violence. 

Meanwhile, both campaigns are figuring out how to adjust to the new political reality. Harris was already on the ticket but now is gearing up a presidential run with just 100 days to do so. 

Trump has been running for more than a year and a half but now needs to shift messaging to focus on Harris instead of Biden. 

Republican strategist Nicole Schlinger said Harris is not an “unknown quantity” because of her time as vice president, allowing the GOP to use what was already known about her in the campaign. 

“All of that research was already being done and so we don’t start from zero,” she said. 

“Will having Kamala Harris at the top of a ticket, will that change which states are in play, and perhaps where we deploy some of our voter contact resources?” she added. “So I think some of those decisions will be carefully analyzed, but in terms of the overall message and the direction of the campaign, she’s already a known factor.”