Karl Rove predicts Harris will soon lead Trump in national polling average

Republican strategist Karl Rove brought out his famous whiteboard on Friday to demonstrate how Vice President Harris could get the “momentum” to “leave her in the lead” of the presidential race at the end of the Democratic convention. 

“Five polls have been held since the 26 of July. He leads in only two. She leads in three,” Rove said on Fox News. “So I fully expect that the momentum she has is going to, is going to carry her through, unless it’s a disastrous vice presidential choice. This momentum is going to leave her in the lead at the end of the Democratic convention.”

Rove also pointed out the decrease in former President Trump’s support in the national Real Clear Politics polling average over the last month. Before the June debate between Trump and President Biden, Trump had a 3-point lead. On Friday, that lead had decreased to close to 0.8 points against Harris. 

Earlier in the week, Rove also pointed out that Trump’s polls come on the heels of the Republican convention. 

“If you take those, those nine polls, it is Trump by 0.88. That’s basically nine-tenths of 1 percent. And that’s after he gets the bump coming out of the convention that really showed a unity for the Republican ticket in the Republican Party,” he said on Fox earlier in the week.

“And so this is going to be a barn burner, and it’s very much up for grabs, and the next two or three weeks are going to be critical for both camps,” he added.

The Hill and Decision Desk HQ polling average shows Trump has a 1.1 percentage point lead against Harris. This decreases from a 2.7 point lead on July 21, the day Biden stood down as Democratic nominee. 

Harris has steadily chipped away at Trump’s momentum since Biden dropped out of the race and Harris emerged as the Democrats’ likely new nominee.

Early polls have shown good news for the Harris campaign and Democrats. Some national polls show a close race between Harris and Trump. Harris leads by 2 points in a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, while Trump has a 1-point lead over the vice president in a separate poll by The New York Times/Siena College.

According to CNBC, Harris has also raised $310 million in the last month, compared to Trump’s $138.7 million. 

On Monday, Rove told Fox News that he believes Trump is in a “subordinate” position compared to Harris since she became the nominee. 

“He is clearly in a subordinate role here. He feels uncomfortable with it, I suspect, and he likes being the guy who’s setting the tempo of the campaign. And that’s not happening,” he said. 

Rove called on Trump to find the right campaign messaging against Harris.

“He has difficulties too. And he’s got [to] frame Harris. He’s got to find the right message to go after her because … we’ve got 101 days as of today, then he’s got to get back in control of the dialogue,” he said.