Vice President Harris has enjoyed a strong start as the Democratic presidential nominee. But even those closest to her acknowledge there will be tougher moments ahead.
Harris herself has contended she is the “underdog” in November’s election match-up against former President Trump.
Right now, it’s hard to identify the favorite with certainty. Harris has erased the national polling lead that Trump had enjoyed over President Biden. Some, but not all, battleground state polls have moved in her direction as well.
The forecasting model maintained by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) still gives Trump a 56 percent chance of prevailing.
Here are the big questions Harris faces now and in the weeks to come.
Does she pay a price for her policy shifts?
Harris has enjoyed a stretch of positive media coverage as she quickly wrapped up the Democratic nomination, bathed in the adulation of big crowds, and executed a smooth rollout of her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D).
But the positive headlines have overshadowed the fact that Harris’s current positions differ from those she adopted during her 2020 bid for the Democratic nomination.
She no longer backs a ban on fracking, which she did in 2020. She now considers unauthorized border crossings to be illegal, having previously said the people who made those crossings should not be charged with a crime.
Harris was also a supporter of Medicare-for-All in the past. Biden has not proposed that policy, and it remains unclear if Harris will suggest otherwise.
A lack of clarity over what Harris really believes was one of the reasons her 2020 campaign was disappointing.
She won’t want to suffer the same fate again.
How much detail will she provide on her economic plans?
Harris has said she will reveal more about her economic plans this week.
During a brief gaggle with reporters in Phoenix on Saturday, she said she would focus on “what we need to do to bring down costs and also strengthen the economy overall.”
Later that day, Harris made a surprise announcement that she wanted to exempt service and hospitality workers from having to pay taxes on tips — a plan that originated with Trump. The former president complained quickly and vociferously on social media, accusing Harris of stealing his idea.
It seems likely that Harris will offer something closely resembling the economic arguments Biden had hoped to make.
To be fair, some of Biden’s proposals have received very little attention, and Harris could give them a patina of freshness.
The president previously proposed tax credits for people selling “starter” homes — as well as Americans buying first homes — as a way to loosen up the housing market.
Another Biden proposal with clear political appeal is the suggestion that Medicare should be able to negotiate prices for a wider range of drugs.
Can Harris make the case for such ideas in a more compelling way than Biden has been able to do?
An Economist/YouGov poll last week found 52 percent of Americans disapproving of Biden’s handling of jobs and the economy, while just 40 percent approved.
What specifically does she want to do on Israel and Gaza?
Perhaps the single most divisive issue within the Democratic base is Gaza, and Harris’s direction isn’t entirely clear.
Polls show a clear majority of Democratic voters believing Israel has gone too far in its 10 months of reprisals in Gaza, following the Hamas attacks of Oct. 7, 2023.
Hamas killed around 1,200 Israelis in those attacks. Israel has killed almost 40,000 Palestinians in response, according to estimates from local health authorities.
Biden has been politically damaged by his handling of the crisis.
During the Democratic primary process, “uncommitted” — a de facto protest vote against the president’s stance — wracked up 19 percent of the vote in Minnesota and 13 percent in the battleground state of Michigan.
Harris has, so far, used rhetoric that appears somewhat more sympathetic to the plight of the Palestinians.
She promised she would not “be silent” about civilian suffering, right after she met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last month. In her brief gaggle in Phoenix, she responded to an Israeli airstrike that reportedly killed more than 80 people by saying that “far too many civilians” have been killed in the conflict.
But the question now looms as to whether Harris is proposing any substantive shift from the Biden policy.
If she is not, progressives — many of whom want the U.S. to halt arms shipments to Israel — will be disappointed. If she does move toward the progressives, she will draw criticism from pro-Israel Democrats — and from Republicans, who are almost universally supportive of Israel.
Can she escape the Biden administration’s vulnerabilities on immigration?
The Harris campaign has tried to go on offense on this topic, which has been widely seen as a big vulnerability for the vice president.
Team Harris’s campaign commercials have sought to put a spotlight on Trump’s role in blowing up a bipartisan proposal for immigration reform earlier this year.
The deal would have provided more Border Patrol agents, so Harris can legitimately make the argument that she favored the idea and that Trump sank it.
But the Harris campaign will have an uphill climb to get ahead of the immigration issue overall.
In polling, it is one of the areas where Biden performs worst, with voters disapproving of his performance by margins of around 2 to 1.
Democrats often respond to Trump’s characterization of Harris as Biden’s “border czar” by noting that no such position officially existed.
But Harris was closely identified with border policy, especially at the start of the Biden administration — and was often called the “border czar” in reports from a wide range of media outlets.
Her specific focus — tackling the long-term drivers of migration — was one where demonstrating meaningful progress is hard by its nature.
How will she perform in unscripted interviews and on the debate stage with Trump?
Harris has come under criticism, especially from conservatives, for having avoided any sit-down interviews or full-scale news conferences since she became the Democratic nominee.
The vice president has said she told her staff to schedule an interview before the end of this month.
Her performance in any such encounter will be closely watched. Any missteps could sap the momentum she is now enjoying.
As for debates, the only encounter that appears confirmed as of now is a Sept. 10 clash with Trump to be hosted by ABC News.
There is some possibility of an NBC News debate as well. Team Harris appears highly reluctant to agree to Trump’s proposal of yet another clash, on Fox News.
Any Harris-Trump debates will be among the most vital events of the campaign’s closing stretch.
It’s no exaggeration to say the election’s result could hinge on the outcome.