Harris narrowly leads Trump in nearly all battleground states: Cook poll

Vice President Harris is leading or tied with former President Trump in six of seven battleground states as she continues to transform the 2024 race after President Biden’s exit last month, according to a poll released Wednesday.

The survey from the Cook Political Report Swing State Project showed Harris with an overall 1-point lead over Trump across the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Across the seven battleground states, she has 48 percent of support, Trump has 47 percent, and 5 percent of respondents said they are undecided or would not vote.

The poll found Harris gained ground on Trump since the last Swing State Project survey was conducted in May, when President Biden was the presumptive Democratic nominee for the White House.

Harris is now narrowly ahead of Trump in five of the battleground states and is tied with Trump in Georgia, according to the survey. Trump’s only lead is in Nevada, but Harris has closed his margin there by 6 points since the poll was last taken in May.

In head-to-head match-ups, Harris has a 3-point lead over Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin. In May, Trump had a 2-point lead over Biden in Michigan and was tied with the president in Wisconsin.

Harris has a 2-point lead over Trump in a head-to-head match-up in Arizona, where Trump previously had a 1-point lead over Biden. She also leads Trump in a match-up in North Carolina, overcoming Trump’s 7-point lead in the state in May, and is up by 1 point in Pennsylvania, where Trump had a 3-point lead over Biden.

The two front-runners are tied in Georgia with 48 percent of support. Trump previously had a 3-point lead over Biden in the state, according to the survey.

Harris’s lead is even larger when third-party candidates — most notably Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — are included, including a 4-point lead in Arizona and 5-point leads in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. She has an overall 2-point lead in the seven states when other candidates are included in the poll, with RFK Jr. getting 5 percent of support.

Since launching her campaign last month after Biden withdrew from the race, Harris has gained momentum across national and swing-state polling. According to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s national polling average, Harris has a 1.4 percentage point lead over Trump based on 114 polls.

The Cook survey was conducted among 2,867 likely voters across the seven swing states between July 26 and Aug. 2 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.83 percentage points.

The polling in Arizona has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points. The polling in Pennsylvania has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points. The polls in Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin each have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points