Democrats know they’re winning the presidential race right now. But they also know how quickly that could change.
There could be a global crisis, an escalation in the already violent Middle East, a widespread hacking or a domestic event that could turn the political tides to turn and alter — yet again — the trajectory of the race.
“Every presidential campaign in modern history has had to go through an unanticipated scandal, crisis or world event, and at some point, that political law is going to happen to Kamala Harris’s campaign,” said Fernand Amandi, a veteran strategist who helped former President Obama win Florida in the 2008 and 2012 elections. “And until she passes that stress test — and I’m confident she will — this election is still wide open.
“Anyone who is measuring the drapes at the White House needs a serious reality check,” Amandi added.
One month ago, Democrats were showing signs of despair as they trailed former President Trump. Polls in key states showed Trump ahead of President Biden. Democrats were having an existential crisis over whether Biden should withdraw from the race and hand the reins to Vice President Harris, and they didn’t even know if Harris would be a viable candidate against Trump.
But after Biden removed himself from the race, momentum shifted significantly in Harris’s direction. The vice president is packing arenas with thousands of supporters, and she’s not only winning in national polls but in key states including Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. One survey this week even showed that for the first time this cycle, voters say they trust Harris over Trump on the economy — the most pivotal issue in the campaign.
But Democrats are worried the race could easily swing back in the other direction — especially as Harris begins to face tough questions on her policy proposals. The vice president has yet to face reporters in a sit-down interview or news conference where she will have to answer tough questions on news of the day — including the escalation in the Middle East — or her shifting viewpoints on various issues since she last ran for president in 2019.
While Trump has taken part in a number of media opportunities, including a press conference Thursday and a highly publicized interview with Tesla founder Elon Musk on Monday, even his allies say he hasn’t moved the needle with voters he needs.
“He’s making this race about everything other than the three big issues,” one former Trump aide said. “He’s not doing himself any favors, and I don’t think he’s getting anyone other than his base to vote for him. I’d say, at this point, he’s turning people off.”
The former aide predicted Trump would try to shake up his campaign before the fall in an effort to jump-start it.
Trump’s flailing bid, however, doesn’t give Democrats any hope that this race is locked. Democrats point to the last two election cycles as proof that it’s going to come down to just tens of thousands of votes in the key states.
“Democrats are rightfully elated with the trajectory of the Harris-Walz campaign,” Democratic strategist Tim Hogan said. “But anyone politically conscious over the last decade — especially Democrats — knows that terrain can shift and events beyond our control can quickly change the nature of elections.
“This is going to be a nail-biter,” Hogan added. “No one should convince themselves that this is going to be anything other than extremely close, and we cannot give an inch in the closing 12 weeks.”
Jim Messina, who served as Obama’s campaign manager in 2012, said Thursday that the race is going to be “incredibly close.”
“When you look at who the undecided voters are in this election, we’re down to like 5 percent,” Messina told Dana Perino on Fox News. “And the question is, are some of those voters going to get out and actually vote.”
Democratic strategist Christy Setzer said while Trump hasn’t won an election in eight years, Democrats are still haunted by his win in 2016, and the efforts to overturn Biden’s victory in 2020, which she said “very nearly succeeded [but] for the grace of Vice President Mike Pence.”
“So we come into this with a ton of well-earned anxiety that all the polls in the world can’t entirely dissipate,” Setzer said. “It all looks good, but trust us when when say we take nothing for granted.”