Trump holds razor-thin lead over Harris in new Pennsylvania poll

Former President Trump holds a razor-thin lead over Vice President Harris in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania, according to a Emerson College Polling/RealClearPennsylvania survey released Friday.

The poll showed Trump leading Harris among likely voters by 1 point, 49 percent to 48 percent, in a head-to-head match-up. The lead ticked up to 2 points, 51 percent to 49 percent, when undecided voters were pressed to choose. 

In both cases, Trump’s lead was within the poll’s 3-point margin of error.

When third-party candidates were included, Trump and Harris were even at 47 percent each, while independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 3 percent. Two percent were undecided, and no other third-party candidate, like independent Cornel West, received more than 0.3 percent. 

The results underscore just how close the battle for the Keystone State’s 19 electoral votes is: The state flipped red in 2016 to help Trump clinch the presidency before flipping back and doing the same for President Biden in 2020. 

The poll found both candidates received roughly the same amount of support from members of their own party, with about 91 percent of registered Republicans and Democrats saying they support their respective party’s candidate.

Trump has a slight lead among independents, up by 3 points, 48 percent to 45 percent, in the two-person race. He also has a large advantage among voters aged 50 to 69, 57 percent to 40 percent, and a narrow lead among voters 70 and older, 52 percent to 47 percent. 

Harris’s strengths come from support among young voters, leading 61 percent to 36 percent among those under 40, and with union members, among whom she leads 57 percent to 42 percent. 

The candidates are tied among voters in their 40s, receiving 49 percent each. 

The results follow the release of a Quinnipiac University poll this week that had Harris leading Trump by 3 points in a two-person race and with third-party candidates. Strong support among women helped boost her to the lead. 

Although the Emerson poll has Harris just behind Trump, it is still an improvement for her compared to its poll last month that had Trump leading by 6 points, 51 percent to 45 percent, among very likely voters. 

The poll was conducted among 1,000 likely voters Aug. 13-14.