North Carolina is back in play.
Vice President Harris’s momentum after replacing President Biden atop the Democratic ticket has shaken up the political map and put the Tar Heel State squarely back into battleground territory after it appeared to be slipping out of reach for Democrats just a few weeks ago.
Harris has erased former President Trump’s once-sizable lead in the state, and both the vice president and the GOP nominee visited North Carolina this week for campaign speeches focused on the economy.
Polling published Wednesday from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report showed Harris leading Trump by 1 percentage point in a head-to-head match-up in North Carolina, a shift from May when Trump led Biden there by 7 percentage points.
Winning North Carolina will still be a challenge for Harris. Republicans have carried the state in every presidential election since 1980, with the exception of 2008 when Barack Obama won it by about 14,000 votes.
“We still have an advantage in the Electoral College,” senior Trump campaign adviser Chris LaCivita maintained this week. “The map still does not favor — we still have over 20 different paths to get to 270. She’s got two or three.”
A source with the Harris campaign noted Trump’s past victory in North Carolina by 1.3 percent in 2020, saying they expect it to be close in the state this year. The campaign has touted its efforts in the state, which include the opening of more than 20 offices, including six slated to open their doors next week. Additionally, the campaign says more than 9,500 of the 12,000-plus volunteers who have signed up in the state have taken action to volunteer.
Democrats and some Republicans argue that North Carolina should not be taken for granted at the presidential level, noting the state’s history of electing downballot Democrats.
“There’s a laziness in Washington to say, ‘Well the state is always Republican and 2008 was an anomaly,’” said GOP strategist Doug Heye, who is originally from North Carolina. “Our senators are usually Republican, but Kay Hagan wasn’t. John Edwards wasn’t. And along with electing Democratic governors, that’s why the state shouldn’t be taken for granted.”
Matt Mercer, communications director at the North Carolina GOP, noted that presidential races in the state going back to 2012 have all been under a five point margin.
“If you win by five points it’s a blowout,” Mercer said. “The state’s really red in a lot of areas and really blue in others and it’s a race to get the most.”
Democrats also point to Obama’s winning coalition in North Carolina, where young voters and Black voters played an integral role in securing his 2008 win throughout the state. Additionally, Democrats say they are aggressively targeting North Carolina’s suburban enclaves as well its rural communities.
“Our state is 60 percent rural, 40 percent urban,” said Doug Wilson, a Charlotte-based political consultant who is advising the Harris campaign. “We know that we’re not going to win every rural county of course. But making inroads into those counties to talk to voters in those counties will make the difference and the campaign has been doing that.”
But 2008 was the last time Democrats were able to galvanize Obama’s coalition to win at the presidential level in North Carolina.
Obama narrowly won the state in 2008, while Hagan, a Democrat, defeated Republican incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole. Then-GOP candidate Mitt Romney flipped the state back to Republicans in the 2012 presidential election, and Hagan lost her reelection bid to Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) in 2014. In 2016, Trump won the state and then-incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) sailed to reelection. However, that same year, Gov. Roy Cooper (D) narrowly ousted the state’s then-Republican Gov. Pat McCrory.
“North Carolina will split a ticket, there’s no question about it,” said Trump’s former chief of staff Mick Mulvaney, referring to Trump’s and Cooper’s 2016 wins.
This year, North Carolina is also home to a closely watched gubernatorial race, with Democrats determined to thwart a win by the state’s staunchly conservative GOP gubernatorial candidate, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who has emerged as a lightning-rod figure.
“Enthusiasm is being driven by the governor’s race,” Mulvaney said. “Democrats are fired up about that race and I think that’s sort of trickling over into the presidential race.”
“I do not think Kamala Harris could win North Carolina. Period. End of story. I don’t think it’s even on the table. But if you ask me if you think there’s enthusiasm, yeah there’s more so in large part because of the governor’s race,” he said.
Republicans also argue that the state is still too conservative for a national Democrat to win in.
“I think for a long time the North Carolina Democrat had a different brand from the national Democratic Party and it’s not that anymore,” Mercer said. “It is just as far left as national Democrats.”
Democrats point to population growth in North Carolina, which they say could play in their favor.
“New population does not equal electoral wins,” said Jess Jollett, executive director of Progress North Carolina. “We have to engage those people and talk to those people.”
Republicans point to their voter registration advantage in the state. Data from North Carolina’s State Board of Elections compiled by the New York Times shows the GOP advantage, but also shows a notable surge in Democratic voter registration in North Carolina following President Biden dropping out of the race last month.
Both Harris and Trump traveled to North Carolina this week for speeches focused on the economy, a sign both campaigns view the state as still up for grabs.
Harris used an event in Raleigh to unveil her economic agenda, marking her first major policy rollout since she replaced Biden atop the Democratic ticket. Harris told the audience that the event was her 16th visit to the state since becoming vice president.
Trump, meanwhile, delivered remarks in Asheville, where he attempted to refocus on economic issues as allies urged him to steer clear of personal attacks against Harris.
During an interview following his speech, Trump suggested he had a secret weapon that could help boost him over the top: his daughter-in-law and Republican National Committee co-Chair Lara Trump, who is a North Carolina native.
“I just think that we’re going to do very well,” Trump told WLOS in Asheville. “I think I am helped by somebody that is a fantastic mother and wife to my son Eric, and I think that gives me a big advantage.”