Walz is winning the popularity contest, despite GOP attacks

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz has had a stunningly successful rollout as the Democratic vice presidential nominee, despite Republican attacks on his record in office and in the military. 

Walz has a positive 5-point net favorability score, according to averages from Decision Desk HQ, which stands out as many of the top politicians around him are underwater. 

Walz’s GOP rival, Sen. JD Vance (Ohio), has a negative 9-point net favorability — his favorable rating minus unfavorable rating — in the averages. At the top of the presidential tickets, former President Trump is at negative 10 points, and Vice President Harris’s favorable-unfavorable numbers are essentially tied. President Biden’s net favorability is 20 points in the red. 

Though early surveys showed Walz as unknown to many voters, observers attribute his success in the popularity contest to his down-to-earth profile on Harris’s newly energized ticket, while Vance struggles to carve out his brand alongside the controversial Trump.

Now, with the election fewer than 90 days away, Walz faces the challenge of sustaining that momentum, which political watchers say he can do by leaning hard into his folksy Midwestern persona, upping his national name ID and pulling off a strong showing in October’s vice presidential debate.  

In an “election of vibes,” the former high school football coach is “on the good-vibes swing right now,” Democratic pollster Ben Tulchin said of Walz. 

“Walz is joining a ticket that’s on the upswing, so I think that’s helped him tremendously get off to a really strong start. And look, his profile — former high school teacher, coach — he’s got a really down-to-earth profile,” Tulchin said. 

Across the aisle, Vance had earned some national recognition with the success of his bestselling memoir, “Hillbilly Elegy” and its 2020 film adaptation. But before Walz debuted as Harris’s running mate, he was largely unknown outside his state.

In an ABC News/Ipsos poll in late July, before the announcement, 86 percent of American voters reported they either had no opinion or did not know the Minnesota governor. 

An NPR/PBS/Marist poll taken just before Walz’s debut also found him notably less well known than Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly (D), both of whom were considered among the top “veepstakes” contenders. 

Nevertheless, Walz has been a popular leader in Minnesota. In 2022, he was among the top 20 most popular governors nationwide, according to polling from Morning Consult of voters in each state. In 2023, he dropped into that list’s top 40, but still boasted a strong favorability score. 

Walz saw his national profile start to skyrocket in late July, as he went viral for branding the Trump-Vance ticket “weird,” a unique label after Democrats had long hammered the campaign as an existential threat to democracy. 

The governor’s accessible speaking style has helped him shift his Minnesota success into his nationwide numbers as he hits the ground running with Harris, observers said. 

“For everyone who knew Tim Walz in Minnesota, it’s kind of a joy to now be able to share him with the country, and you are seeing an embrace of him and his type of politics and his plainspoken manner really resonate with people nationally,” said Democratic strategist Tim Hogan, the former communications director for Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s (D) presidential campaign.

Walz has been “firing up the base” in recent rallies with Harris and in his first few solo stops along the campaign trail, Hogan said, as he leans into his union background, his time as a teacher and his Midwestern roots.

That’s a “stark contrast” with Vance, Hogan argued. Though the Ohio senator has shared his experience growing up around poverty and addiction in Middletown, Ohio, as he runs alongside Trump, he’s come under criticism from both sides of the aisle over the background he discusses in his memoir.

Meanwhile, Vance has gone after Walz’s military background, accusing the Army National Guard veteran of “stolen valor,” as Republicans dissect his record in office. 

“It’s partly a race. Tim Walz wants to raise his name ID, introduce himself to millions of Americans in an authentic way, but do it quick enough that you don’t allow the Republicans to completely define you,” said Abou Amara, a Minnesota attorney and Democratic analyst. 

An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll released Friday found 39 percent of voters had a positive view of Walz, and 30 percent had a negative view. That makes his net favorability a positive 9 figure.  

Across the aisle, 32 percent in the poll said they had a favorable view of Vance, while 42 percent had a negative picture, for a net score of negative 10. 

An Economist/YouGov poll taken in recent days found 44 percent of voters think Walz is qualified to be vice president, while 37 percent said the same of Vance. 

Less than a quarter of voters in the poll said they think Vance helps Trump’s chances of winning in November, while 38 percent said they think Walz helps Harris. Though running mates tend to have little impact on presidential election outcomes, observers are keeping close watch on the respective party attack dogs in the wake of the Democrats’ unprecedented ticket shake-up. 

Even as his profile grows, Walz is still new to the national stage and must build his name recognition for many Americans. 

An Emerson College poll released Thursday found nearly a quarter of voters still said they’d never heard of the Minnesota governor, while just 12 percent said the same of the Ohio senator. 

“Walz is still very new to Americans. And even Harris’s transition from being a vice president to being the candidate still feels very new to a lot of Americans who haven’t been paying a ton of attention and still have questions about who she is, let alone who Walz is,” said Joshua Ulibarri, a Democratic pollster at Lake Research Partners.

Ulibarri attributed some of Walz’s polling success to that newness. 

“A lot of this is just simple partisanship. They don’t know who Walz is, but they like him because he’s a Democrat, and because Harris picked him … and base Democrats are very energized about Harris,” he said. “That works to Walz’s advantage.”

That theory should work for Vance, too, but the Republican vice presidential nominee is saddled with baggage from the top of the ticket that Walz has avoided, Ulibarri added.  

Republican strategist Ford O’Connell, though, shrugged off Walz’s favorability numbers, as well as promising polls putting Harris ahead of Trump in battlegrounds, as a “honeymoon” moment for her campaign. 

“I think at the end of the DNC, you’re going to see the best numbers you’re going to see from Harris for the entire election cycle, and after Labor Day, that honeymoon is going to come to an end,” O’Connell said. 

Walz is staring down a high-stakes few months ahead. The Democratic National Convention kicks off in Chicago next week, and the vice presidential debate is now set for Oct. 1.  In order to keep his momentum, he’ll need to keep building out his brand and reaching out to voters in the “blue wall” states and beyond. 

“This good-natured, down-to-earth new vibe, getting energy around calling these Republicans weird and strange — that’s going to have a shelf life,” Ulibarri said of Walz. “And he’s going to advance from being the new governor, who is different and not evil compared to these other two, to being somebody who could be president.”