Harris, Trump neck and neck in 4 critical swing states: Survey

Vice President Harris is closing the gap with former President Trump in several key battleground states as the election inches closer, according to a new survey.

The poll, published Saturday, from The New York Times/Siena College found Harris is leading Trump in Arizona (50 percent to 45 percent) and North Carolina (49 percent to 47 percent). The vice president’s momentum has in recent weeks led her campaign to declare that the Tar Heel Sate, where Trump had built a solid lead when facing former President Biden, is back in play for Democrats.

In Nevada and Georgia, Harris has largely closed the gap with the former president. Trump leads the vice president in the Silver State, 48 percent to 47 percent, and in the Peach State, 50 percent to 46 percent, per the survey.

As an average of the four Sun Belt states, Trump and Harris are tied at 48 percent, the survey shows. A win in at least one of these states with a sweep of the other 3 battleground states — Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania — would likely be enough to clinch the presidency. 

Harris has steadily gained in national polls since Biden announced last month he would withdraw from the race and endorsed her to run in November. She became the official Democratic nominee earlier this month, and will formally accept the nomination alongside her running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz next week at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

A separate survey from The Times/Siena earlier this month found Harris leading Trump by at least four points Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Before Biden withdrew his candidacy, the former president was leading him by 3 percent in the three battleground states.

An August 10 poll from the New York Times/Siena found that Harris leads Trump by 4 points in the three states. Earlier in the year, Trump led Biden by three percent in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, three must-wins for Democrats to hold the White House. 

Saturday’s poll is a significant improvement for Democrats compared to a similar survey conducted in May, in which Trump led Biden by 50 percent to 41 percent in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. That poll did not include North Carolina. 

The latest poll results also come after the independent election handicapper Cook Political Report shifted Arizona, Georgia and Nevada from “lean Republican” to “toss-up,” as Harris continues to chip away at Trump’s lead in most battleground states. 

Democrats are also far more excited about the presidential race with Harris at the top of the ticket compared to Biden, with 85 percent saying they are at least somewhat excited for their candidate and the election, which is also far higher than the May poll. 

Roughly 85 percent of Republicans are also at least somewhat excited to vote, which is close to the same as May. 

Voters overall gave Harris a 48 percent favorable rating, the same as her unfavorable rating. No prior Times/Siena poll had tested her favorability in these states, but national surveys had found that Kamala had as much as a 19-percent net unfavorable rating in February.

Since launching her campaign, Harris has quickly built momentum, especially online, with posts on platforms like TikTok, which have reengaged young voters dispirited by a Biden candidacy. 

That boost was evident in Saturday’s poll, with Harris holding a 13-point lead against Trump among TikTok users in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. Biden had a three-point lead with the same group in May. 

The poll also showed that the people’s votes are increasingly split among racial and gender lines. Harris garnered the support of 84 percent of Black voters and 54 percent of Latino voters in the recent survey.

Overall, she leads Trump with nonwhite voters in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada by 29 points, compared to Biden’s 17-point lead in May. On the flip side, Trump had the support of 66 percent of white voters without a college degree in the four Sun Belt states.

Third-party presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s support has halved since the May poll, and he brought in only 4 percent as an average across the four states, per the poll. His candidacy no longer meaningfully affects the contest between Trump and Harris in these states, a trend mirrored across other swing states since the vice president rose to the top of the ticket.

The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s national polling index shows Trump leading Harris nationally by 1.8 percentage points — 49 percent to 47.2 percent — based on more than 100 surveys.

The latest Times/Siena surveyed 2,670 registered voters across the four states from Aug. 8-15. The margin of error for the polls out of Arizona, Nevada and Georgia is 4.4 percentage points, and the margin of error in North Carolina is 4.2 percentage points.