Axelrod: Trump might win election if it was held today

Democratic strategist David Axelrod on Sunday warned the party against being too euphoric over Vice President Harris’s slight national lead over former President Trump, suggesting the Republican “may well” win if the election was held today.

Axelrod was a prominent voice this summer calling for President Biden to drop out of the race, and he said the Democratic Party is in a better position for November with Harris as its presumed nominee.

“Look, she [Harris] has made extraordinary progress. We were all in Milwaukee [for the Republican National Convention] a month ago and, you know, there was euphoria there and a sense that this race was over, that they were going to win by a landslide, perhaps sweeping big majorities in the House and Senate,” Axelrod said during a CNN panel.

At the time, Trump held a healthy lead nationally and in swing states over Biden.

“Things have changed dramatically” over the past four weeks following Biden’s withdrawal from the race and Harris’s subsequent replacement at the top of the Democratic ticket, Axelrod said.

Nonetheless, Axelrod suggested it is too early to call it a race for Harris, who is slightly leading the former president in some national polls.

“But this is still a very competitive race. If the election were today, I’m not sure who would win and I think it may well be President Trump, because it’s an Electoral College fight,” Axelrod said.

“I’ve said several times here that, you know, for [a] Democrat to win those battleground states, they have to have a significant lead in the Electoral College,” he continued. “Remember, Joe Biden won by 7 million votes nationally last time, and a margin of 45,000 votes or 44,000 votes in the three closest battleground states combined.”

While tens of millions of people will vote in the general election this fall, just about a half-dozen critical swing states will likely determine the race.

“So, she’s [Harris] right to be telling people it’s good to be enthusiastic. That enthusiasm is really, really important for the Democratic Party,” Axelrod added. “But you have to turn that into energetic action in order to win the election. I think that’s going to be part of what you hear here.”

While Harris has a razor-thin lead over Trump in various national polls, the two have been largely been neck and neck in polling from some critical swing states.

A poll published over the weekend from The New York Times/Siena College found Harris is leading Trump by 5 points in Arizona, 50 percent to 45 percent, and 2 points in North Carolina, 49 percent to 47 percent.

In Nevada and Georgia, Harris has largely closed the gap with the former president. Trump leads the vice president in the Silver State, 48 percent to 47 percent, and in the Peach State, 50 percent to 46 percent, according to the survey.

In a CBS News/You Gov survey released Sunday, Harris and Trump are in a dead heat across seven battleground states.