Election forecaster moves NC gubernatorial race toward Democrats

An election forecaster shifted its rating of the North Carolina gubernatorial race toward Democrats on Wednesday, as the Democratic nominee, state Attorney General Josh Stein, leads his Republican counterpart, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, by notable margins in recent polling. 

Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved its rating from from “toss-up” to “leans Democratic” in light of the recent polling and a significant fundraising advantage Stein’s campaign has built. The race is one of the relatively few seriously contested governor’s races this year and is taking place alongside former President Trump and Vice President Harris competing for the battleground state in the presidential election. 

Sabato’s explanation of the shift notes that Robinson, who “personifies the MAGA wing” of the GOP better than any other statewide official in North Carolina, has been known to make a wide range of provocative comments on many issues, including abortion and LGBTQ individuals. 

He has referred to homosexuality and “transgenderism” as “filth” and frequently called abortion “murder” and “genocide.” He has seemed to soften his stance on abortion recently, however, following an ad his campaign released this month revealing he and his wife had an abortion 30 years ago. 

Robinson said he is supporting the state’s current 12-week ban that provides “common-sense exceptions” such as in instances of rape, incest and protecting the life of the mother. 

The forecaster said Stein has mostly avoided addressing some more conspiratorial statements Robinson has made but slammed his staunchly conservative position on abortion. And the Democratic nominee has significantly outpaced Robinson in ad support, by more than a 2-to-1 margin.

Several recent polls of the race have shown Stein with increasing leads, and he is ahead by 10 points in The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s polling average. 

But Sabato’s notes that double-digit wins in North Carolina are rare, and Stein’s leads are likely not as large as polling suggests. Outgoing Gov. Roy Cooper (D), who is term-limited, led in polling by 11 points going into the the 2020 election but only won by about 4.5 points. 

“While we would be surprised if Stein wins by, or even surpasses, Cooper’s 2020 margin, we do feel comfortable designating him as a modest favorite,” Sabato’s stated. 

The rating shift comes a day after Cook Political Report also moved its rating of the race to lean toward Democrats.