Sheehy leads Tester in Montana Senate race’s homestretch

Republican Tim Sheehy is narrowly leading Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester in the homestretch of the Montana Senate race, according to a poll released Sunday.

A survey from Emerson College Polling and The Hill found Sheehy leading Tester 50 percent to 46 percent, with 3 percent undecided.

When undecided voters were asked which candidate they’re leaning toward, Sheehy’s advantage shrunk to 3 points, 51 percent to 48 percent. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The polling also found 48 percent of respondents had a favorable opinion of Tester, versus roughly 51 percent who said they had an unfavorable opinion of him.

Forty-eight percent said they had a favorable opinion of Sheehy, while 50 percent said they had an unfavorable opinion of him.

“With just over a week until Election Day, the incumbent Senator’s support among Montana voters faces a test as Trump appears poised to exceed his 2020 margin of 16.4 percentage points in the state,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, explained in a press release. “Split-ticket voters are crucial for Tester, with about 1 in 10 Trump voters also backing him on the Senate ballot, while virtually no Harris supporters lean toward Sheehy.”

Kimball also noted Tester performs better by 14 points among women, while Sheehy performs better among men by 22 points.

Tester is one of two Democrats running for reelection this cycle in a state Donald Trump won in 2020. Recent polling has shown Tester may have an increasingly tough bid against Sheehy.

The Montana Democrat is seeking his fourth term and has experience running in tight races before; he narrowly won his last bid, in 2018 against Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.), by less than 4 points.

But Tester’s name is also set to appear on the same ballot as Trump’s and during a presidential cycle when more voters are likely to cast ballots, which could make his latest reelection a tougher climb.

An aggregate of Montana Senate surveys compiled by Decision Desk HQ shows Sheehy leading Tester, 51 percent to 44 percent. 

The survey from Emerson College Polling and The Hill was conducted Oct. 23-25 with 1,000 likely voters.