Trump up by 5 points over Harris in Texas survey

Former President Trump is leading Vice President Harris by 5 points among likely voters in Texas, according to a new survey.

The poll, released Tuesday from the University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research, shows Trump with 51 percent support compared to Harris’s 46 percent in the Lone Star State. Asked who they think will win the state, regardless of preference, 55 percent said Trump will be victorious over Harris, who received 43 percent, according to the survey.

With just six days left until the election, The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s aggregate of polls shows the former president with a 7.6-point edge over Harris in the state — 52.1 percent to 44.5 percent.

“The margin of the election will likely determine whether pundits classify Texas as a red state or a battleground state in 2026 and 2028,” said Kenneth A. Wink, a UT Tyler professor and poll director.

The former president won the state in 2020 and 2016.

“Though the race is close, more Republicans than Democrats claim they will be voting on election day, and voters who intend to vote on election day tend to turn out at rates lower than those who plan to vote early,” Wink noted.

Despite the strong polling margin, 41 percent of voters in the state considered the GOP nominee to be “very unfavorable,” compared to 36 percent who said he was “very favorable.” Broken down by race, 38 percent of white voters found Trump very favorable, while 29 percent of Latinos and 13 percent of Black voters said the same, according to the poll.

Among likely voters 28 percent said Harris was “very favorable,” compared to 46 percent who said she was “very unfavorable.” Roughly 47 percent of Black voters, 29 percent of Latinos, and 22 percent of white voters said the Democratic nominee was very favorable, the data shows.

When asked about their confidence in the party nominees’ ability to provide leadership to the U.S. military as commander in chief, Trump led Harris by 8 points.

The results show a partisan divide on the topic. About 68 percent of Republicans, 20 percent of independents and 4 percent of Democrats supported Trump on the matter. About 65 percent of Democrats, 8 percent of independents and 5 percent of Republicans said Harris would better lead the military, the survey shows.

Just under 30 percent of likely voters in the poll listed abortion as the most important issue, 24 percent said “securing the border” should be the top priority while 17 percent cited inflation.

“Interestingly, those citing abortion as the major issue are now split differently in the other direction, with 12 percent believing ‘reproductive rights’ is the most important issue and 17 percent citing ‘restriction abortion’ as the most important issue,” Wink wrote.

“Ironically, it seems that the national and state Democratic Party focus on abortion as a winning issue for the Democrats may have the unintentional effect of mobilizing pro-life voters in Texas,” the pollster added.

The topic of abortion has also had a major impact on the Texas Senate race between incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and his rival, Rep. Collin Allred (D). The latest poll found Cruz leading Allred 47 percent to 45 percent among likely voters.

The UT Tyler survey was conducted Oct. 14-21 among 1,129 registered voters — including 805 likely voters — in the state and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.