Trump ahead of Harris in Iowa in new Emerson College poll

Former President Trump is ahead of Vice President Harris by 10 points in Iowa, according to a new poll released Saturday. 

The new survey, from Emerson College Polling/RealClearDefense, found the Republican nominee leading by 10 points, with 53 percent support to 43 percent, among Iowa’s likely voters with just three days to go before Election Day. Some 3 percent of respondents were undecided while 1 percent said they were planning to vote third party. 

Trump had the upper hand among male and female likely Iowa voters. He led by 5 points, 51 percent to 46 percent, among women. The gap was greater among men, among whom he was ahead by 17 points, 56 percent to 37 percent, according to the survey. 

The GOP nominee garnered a 17-point lead among independents in Iowa, getting 53 percent support to Harris’s 36 percent. 

Harris had the advantage among the younger electorate, beating Trump by 8 points, 54 percent to 46 percent, among voters under the age of 30. The former president was ahead among all other age groups. The vice president amassed a 7-point lead with voters with postgraduate degrees, getting 52 percent support to Trump’s 45, according to the poll. 

The Emerson College Poll came out the same day as a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom survey that found Harris leading Trump by 3 points among Iowa’s likely voters. Harris was ahead of Trump by 28 points, 57 percent to 29 percent, among female independent voters. Trump had a 10-point lead, 47 percent to 37 percent, with independent male voters. 

The Trump campaign said that the Des Moines Register survey is an “outlier poll” and referenced the Emerson College survey. 

The former president won Iowa in both 2016 and 2020, by 9 points and 8 points, respectively. Former President Obama was the last Democratic nominee to win Iowa, carrying the Hawkeye State in 2012.

The Emerson College Polling/RealClearDefense poll was conducted Nov. 1-2 among 800 likely Iowa voters. It had a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.