Republicans roll to victories in Senate: Where the races stand

Senate Republicans enjoyed a strong night in the battle for the majority, winning control of the upper chamber and ending the night with chances of running up the score.

Republicans early Wednesday could be assured of having 52 seats. Their big victories came in Ohio, where Sen.-elect Bernie Moreno (R) defeated Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), in West Virginia, where Gov. Jim Justice (R) will replace Sen. Joe Manchin (I), and in Montana, where businessman and former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy (R) topped third-term Sen. Jon Tester (D).

The party held serve in their own seats. Sens. Ted Cruz (R) and Rick Scott (R) both won handily in Texas and Florida, respectively, despite Senate Democrats making a sizable investment in the final six weeks. 

Sen. Deb Fischer (R) also defeated independent Dan Osborn in Nebraska to nab a third term in office after a last-minute scare in the Cornhusker State. 

Whether the GOP majority grows further depends on a series of other races.

Here’s a look at the key results, including contests in which no winner has been called.

Ohio 

This was the race that did the trick for the GOP to end its four-year hiatus in the minority. 

Moreno defeated Brown, who had survived previous challenges as Ohio turned from a purple state to a red state, as former President Trump easily defeated Vice President Harris in the state by a double-digit margin.

The result was not a surprise, but was notable in a race where Brown enjoyed a polling lead for much of the fall.

Moreno was able to almost replicate Sen. JD Vance’s (R-Ohio) performance from two years ago, when he won his Senate race after trailing in polls most of the year. Moreno, like Vance, took the lead in the final days of the campaign.

Moreno led Brown by more than 200,000 votes after 95 percent of the vote was counted, putting him on trajectory to win the state handily. He is projected to win with a 4-point lead, 50 percent to 46 percent.

Former President Trump was projected to win the state by 11 points, 55 percent to 44 percent, over Harris — matching the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s expectation he would win the Buckeye State by double digits.

Montana 

This was late call, with Montana’s polls closing at 10 p.m. on Tuesday. Given the margins in Ohio and elsewhere on the map, the road to a win for Tester was a difficult one. 

Political prognosticators had given Sheehy the advantage heading into Tuesday. 

Sheehy had led Tester in the polls for weeks in a state that former President Trump won in 2016 and 2020 and was expected to win again this year by double digits.

Tester appeared to regain some momentum late in the race after raising questions about Sheehy’s claim that he was shot during a firefight in Afghanistan and Democratic spending groups stuck by the incumbent’s side throughout the race.

But Sheehy ended up winning the race easily with 53 percent of the vote compared to Tester’s 45 percent of the vote after 87 percent of ballots were counted.

Trump is projected to win Montana with 59 percent of the vote, which would give him a 21-point victory over Harris in the Treasure State.

Trump’s margin of victory over President Biden in Montana was 16 points in 2020.

Pennsylvania

Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) is going to need a comeback victory if he is going to overtake Republican David McCormick and win a fourth term in office. 

It’s been a bleak night for Democrats in the Keystone State as they trail in not only the presidential race, but also in races for state attorney general, auditor general and treasurer. 

But Casey is the party’s best chance to win. He is trailing McCormick by around 50,000 votes with 95 percent of the vote counted.

“That’s going to come down to the very wire. His slight overperformance might make all the difference,” said one senior Pennsylvania Democrat told The Hill early Wednesday

The remaining outstanding votes are largely on Democratic terrain: Philadelphia and the city’s collar counties. 

Wisconsin

Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) is projected to narrowly defeat Republican Eric Hovde, according to Decision Desk HQ.

Baldwin trailed Hovde by about 60,000 votes as of early Wednesday morning, but made up ground and the race was called around 10 a.m.

The main source of those votes is Democrat-heavy Milwaukee, and they are likely to land around 3 a.m. EST, but whether they are enough to carry Baldwin across the finish line is in question. 

“There’s a real Tammy wins, Kamala loses scenario here,” one Wisconsin Democratic operative said, noting that Baldwin has outrun Harris in some rural counties to give her a boost. 

Michigan 

Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) has pulled in front of former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) with a small lead in the Michigan Senate race.

She held a slim 12,000-vote advantage over Rogers Wednesday morning out of more than 5.3 million ballots cast. She’s leading Rogers 48.6 percent to 48.3 percent with 95 percent of the vote counted.

There are major differences in the state compared to Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Chief among them is that a much larger portion of the outstanding vote remains in the Wolverine State, including in Wayne County, a Democratic stronghold that includes Detroit. 

Trump is running about 90,000 votes ahead of Harris in Michigan, with more than 2.75 million votes.

As of Wednesday morning, Trump had won about 104,000 more votes than Rogers while Slotkin had won about as many votes as Harris.

Nevada

The Nevada Senate race is essentially tied with 86 percent of the vote counted as Republican Sam Brown is leading freshman Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) by fewer than 1,000 votes, with 84 percent of the vote already counted.

 The Hill’s Decision Desk HQ declared Trump the winner in Nevada early Wednesday morning. He led by nearly 60,000 votes.

Longtime political commentator Jon Ralston, the CEO of The Nevada Independent, noted a big drop-off in support for Brown in Clark County — the state’s most populous — compared to Trump.

Rosen is leading Brown by more than 40,000 votes in Clark County.

Updated at 10:35 a.m. EST

Alexander Bolton contributed.