The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has reserved more than $18 million in fall television time, an initial foray into the media market that shines a light on where the fight for control of the House of Representatives will likely be focused.
Several of the key battlegrounds are in states and districts where President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are most likely to center their own paid media blitzes. Many of the same areas also have competitive Senate contests, a reflection that the epicenters of American politics are converging on a few key regions.
The DCCC has purchased $1.8 million in airtime in the Phoenix market, where Reps. Tom O’Halleran (D) and Dave Schweikert (R) both face competitive reelection battles. Arizona has emerged as a key pickup opportunity for Senate Democrats challenging Sen. Martha McSally (R), and signs increasingly point to a competitive race in the state between Biden and Trump. The president won Arizona in 2016, but Biden has led every public poll there since December.
The committee is blocking off $2.3 million in three Iowa markets — Des Moines, Cedar Rapids and Davenport — where the parties will contest seats held by Reps. Abby Finkenauer (D), Cindy Axne (D) and Steve King (R), as well as an open seat being vacated by Rep. David Loebsack (D). The two parties are also fighting over a Senate seat held by Sen. Joni Ernst (R).
Democrats have reserved $1.4 million in three Maine media markets to protect Rep. Jared Golden, the only Democrat who split his votes on the two impeachment charges against Trump. Golden became the first member of Congress to win election because of a ranked-choice voting system when he beat then-Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) in 2018. Trump won his district, and its lone electoral vote, in 2016.
The party is betting big in Pennsylvania, where they plan $910,000 in spending in the Philadelphia market, $1 million in Harrisburg and $400,000 for two weeks of time in the Wilkes Barre-Scranton markets.
Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) represents the Scranton area. Rep. Scott Perry (R) holds the Harrisburg-based district. And Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R), one of the few Republicans who holds a district Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton won in 2016, is the likely target of the Philadelphia spending.
Democrats also plan millions in spending in Miami, Atlanta, Detroit, Minneapolis and Las Vegas, all media markets where Democratic freshman incumbents may be vulnerable to Republican challengers.
The DCCC has also plunked down $3 million in early reservations for digital advertising in almost 40 districts across the country, a committee aide tells The Hill. That early spending will allow the committee to pick its ad placement spots long before competitive bidding drives prices up.
The two parties and their affiliated super PACs tend to make early advertising reservations in a series of waves to lock in prices before they begin to rise. The committees have until just hours before the ads are scheduled to run to pull them, in case a race begins to look safe enough to abandon or too difficult to win.
The DCCC’s ad reservations are only its first foray of many into the post-Labor Day market. In 2018, the party’s initial ad buys totaled $12.6 million, about two-thirds of this year’s buy; the DCCC ended up spending more than $73 million on television that cycle.
The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has not yet begun purchasing its own fall advertising, though it is likely to do so in the coming weeks.
The DCCC has an early edge on its Republican rivals. The most recent reports filed with the Federal Election Commission show the DCCC has $82 million in the bank, compared with $52 million the NRCC has squirreled away.
The two largest political action committees that back the two parties have already started making their own reservations: The Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC has reserved $43 million in airtime, and the Republican-backing Congressional Leadership Fund has blocked off $51 million for television time.