President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are running neck and neck in Texas, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday, suggesting that the longtime Republican stronghold may be in play in 2020.
The poll shows Trump with a narrow lead over presumptive Democratic nominee Biden, 44 percent to 43 percent, well within the survey’s 2.9 percentage point margin of error.
Among voters from their respective parties, Biden has a slight edge. Ninety percent of Democrats said they would vote for the former vice president in November, while 87 percent of Republicans said they plan to cast their ballots for Trump.
In another positive sign for Biden, independents said they favor him over Trump, 45 percent to 36 percent, according to the Quinnipiac poll.
Texas voters are largely split on who would do a better job responding to the coronavirus pandemic. Forty-seven percent chose Biden, while 45 percent chose Trump. That’s still within the poll’s margin of error, however.
“Too tight to tell in Texas,” said Tim Malloy, a polling analyst at Quinnipiac University. “As the country confronts chaos and COVID-19, perhaps one of the most important states of all is a toss-up.”
In terms of overall favorability, Biden and Trump are also just about tied, though both are in the negative. Biden’s favorability was underwater by 7 points, while Trump’s was underwater by 8 percentage points, according to the poll.
The tight nature of the race in Texas suggests that the traditionally deep-red state may be within reach for Democrats. Republicans have won every presidential election in Texas since 1980, and Trump carried the state by 9 points in 2016.
But an influx of new residents and a growing Latino population have buoyed Democrats’ hopes of winning statewide in Texas in 2020. The party is also contesting several GOP-held House seats and a Senate seat this year and is angling to make gains in the state House.
The Texas Democratic Party touted the poll on Wednesday, insisting that it is a sign Texas may be on the verge of a political sea change.
“The polls released the last few weeks continue to reaffirm an unwavering truth this election cycle: Texas is the biggest battleground state in the country,” Manny Garcia, the executive director of the Texas Democratic Party, said. “Voters are increasingly entrusting Democratic leaders with the future of their communities. Republicans have proven utterly incapable of managing times of crisis, and that has hurt them up and down the ballot.”
The Quinnipiac University poll is based on interviews with 1,166 self-identified registered voters in Texas. The survey was conducted from May 28 to June 1.
This report was updated at 2:37 p.m.