Cook Political Report shifts several Senate races toward Democrats

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report, an independent online newsletter,  shifted a handful of Senate races on Thursday in favor of Democrats, with the November general election just 103 days away.

With the relabeling came a prediction: that Democrats, who control the House, will win back control of the Senate in November.

Cook switched GOP Sens. Joni Ernst (Iowa) and David Perdue’s (Ga.) matchups against Democratic challengers from “lean Republican” to a “toss-up,” while Sen. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) had her race against former astronaut Mark Kelly (D) changed from “toss-up” to “lean Democratic.”

Jon Ossoff, who will challenge Perdue, said last week that internal polling done by Democratic pollster Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group showed him in a dead heat with the Republican senator, 45-44.

Additionally, Democratic Sen. Tina Smith (Minn.) had her race changed from “lean Democratic” to “solid Democratic.” The race for retiring Sen. Tom Udall’s (D-N.M.) seat between Rep. Ben Ray Luján (D) and Republican Mark Ronchetti was also shifted from “lean Democratic” to “solid Democratic.”

For Democrats to regain control of the Senate in November, they need to either win four seats if presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden wins, or five seats if he loses.

The independent report notes that the Senate hasn’t been flipped outright during a presidential election year since 1980, when former President Ronald Reagan (R) beat former President Jimmy Carter (D).

Last week, Cook shifted 20 House races towards Democrats as well. Overall, FiveThiryEight’s average of all congressional races show Democrats with an 8-point lead, 49-41.

The latest ratings from Cook come as President Trump has dropped behind Biden in recent swing state polls. Polls released Thursday showed Trump trailing the former vice president by 13 and 6 points in Florida.

A Fox News poll released Thursday evening also showed Trump trailing Biden in Michigan and Pennsylvania by 9 and 11 points, respectively. Trump won both Pennsylvania and Michigan by close margins against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016.