The Hill’s Campaign Report: What to watch for in Tuesday’s primaries

Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, your daily rundown on all the latest news in the 2020 presidential, Senate and House races. Did someone forward this to you? Click here to subscribe.

We’re Julia Manchester, Max Greenwood and Jonathan Easley. Here’s what we’re watching  today on the campaign trail. 

LEADING THE DAY: 

Five states will hold primaries on Tuesday night, with the biggest showdowns taking place in Michigan and Kansas. 

In Michigan, first-term Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D) is set for a rematch against former Rep. Brenda Jones (D), who beat Tlaib in a special primary election in 2018 to fill the remaining months of former Rep. John Conyers’ term, but lost to Tlaib in a regular six-way primary held that same day that determined who would be the party’s nominee in November 2018. 

Tlaib heads into Tuesday with several key advantages; she has far outraised Jones and what little polling there is in the primary shows Tlaib in the lead. But one factor that may work to Jones’s advantage is absentee balloting. Jones beat Tlaib in the absentee vote in 2018, and a surge in ballots this year could make a difference.

In Kansas, Rep. Roger Marshall (R) and former state Secretary of State Kris Kobach will go head-to-head in the race for the GOP nomination to replace retiring Sen. Pat Roberts (R).

Marshall is the heavy favorite of Republican Senate leaders, who believe that a win for Kobach could cost them a seat in November. But GOP operatives fear that Kobach still has a fighting chance and may be able to eke out a win on Tuesday. Kobach is a divisive figure in Republican circles. He’s a staunch ally of President Trump, though he has a penchant for controversy. And his loss to Democrat Laura Kelly in Kansas’s 2018 gubernatorial race combined with lackluster fundraising efforts have rattled many Republicans. 

Democrats have largely rallied behind the candidacy of state Sen. Barbara Bollier, who’s the heavy favorite to win her primary on Tuesday. Regardless of who emerges on the GOP side, Bollier will begin with a big cash advantage. Her most recent Federal Election Commission filing shows her with more than $4 million in cash on hand. Marshall, by comparison, reported a little more than $1 million in the bank, while Kobach had just over $136,000.

In other primaries to watch, former astronaut Mark Kelly is expected to glide to the Democratic Senate nomination in Arizona, while Rep. Steve Watkins (R-Kansas), who is facing criminal charges related to voter fraud, is fighting for his political life in the Republican primary in Kansas’s 2nd District.

— Max Greenwood

READ MORE:

‘Squad’ member Rashida Tlaib faces strong primary challenger, by Julia Manchester.

GOP scrambles to fend off Kobach in Kansas primary, by Max

FROM THE TRAIL:

Former President Barack Obama rolled out his list of 2020 endorsements on Monday. “I’m proud to endorse this diverse and hopeful collection of thoughtful, empathetic, and highly qualified Democrats. Together, these candidates will help us redeem our country’s promise by sticking up for working class people, restoring fairness and opportunity to our system, and fighting for the good of all Americans — not just those at the top,” Obama said in an announcement published on Medium. The Hill’s Rebecca Klar has more.

Trump’s reelection campaign announced on Monday it was rolling out television ads in the crucial swing states of North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Arizona on local broadcast and cable outlets, as well as on Spanish language channels. Rebecca reports. The president’s reelection campaign also released a new ad which equated progressive politics in the U.S. to socialist dictators and politicians in Latin America. The Hill’s Rafael Bernal reports.

Meanwhile, Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien said in an interview with Fox and Friends on Monday that he wants more debates between Trump and Biden, and that he would like them to happen sooner rather than later. Stepien cited early voting, which begins in a number of states before the scheduled debate on September 29. Trump is behind in the polls, which signals why the campaign wants more chances for one-on-one confrontations with Biden. Max reports.

POLLS:

YOUR VOICE OHIO- OHIO PRESIDENTIAL

Biden: 46%

Trump: 42%

 

EMERSON COLLEGE – MONTANA PRESIDENTIAL
Trump: 53%

Biden: 42%

 

EMERSON COLLEGE – MONTANA SENATE

Daines: 50%

Bullock: 44%

 

PERSPECTIVES:

Brad Bannon: Red flags fly high, but Trump ignores them

Marc Joffe: Biden’s tax plan may not add up

Andrew Stein: Democrats’ silence on our summer of violence is a tactical blunder

MARK YOUR CALENDARS:

Aug. 4:

Arizona primaries

Kansas primaries

Michigan primaries

Missouri primaries

Washington primaries

 

Aug. 11:

Connecticut primaries

Minnesota primaries

Vermont primaries

Wisconsin primaries

Georgia primary runoffs

 

Aug. 18:

Alaska primaries

Florida primaries

Wyoming primaries

 

Aug. 17-20:

Democratic National Convention

 

Aug. 24-27:

Republican National Convention

 

Sept. 1:

Massachusetts primaries

 

Sept. 8:

New Hampshire primaries

Rhode Island primaries

 

Sept. 15:

Delaware primaries

 

Sept. 29:

First presidential debate

 

Oct. 7:

Vice presidential debate

 

Oct. 15:

Second presidential debate

 

Oct. 22:

Third presidential debate