Race tightens in Miami-Dade, giving hope to Trump in Florida

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s lead over President Trump in Florida’s largest county is tightening, according to a new poll, bolstering the president’s hopes in the must-win swing state.

The poll, from the firm Bendixen & Amandi International and the Miami Herald, shows Biden garnering 55 percent of the vote in Miami-Dade County to Trump’s 38 percent. While that 17-point lead is well outside the poll’s 4.4 percentage point margin of error, it’s well short of then-Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s 30-point victory there in 2016. 

The survey also found Biden and Trump statistically tied among Miami-Dade Hispanics. The former vice president carried 46 percent support among those voters to Trump’s 47 percent.

There’s little doubt that Biden will win Miami-Dade in the November election. Democratic presidential candidates have carried the county, which encompasses Miami and its suburbs, for decades. 

But Trump doesn’t need to win Miami-Dade in November to capture Florida’s 29 electoral votes, and if he’s successful at narrowing Biden’s margin of victory there, it could help him make up for possible deficits in other parts of the state, such as in the swing counties along the I-4 corridor in Central Florida.

Biden leads Trump among white and independent voters in Miami-Dade, according to the Bendixen & Amandi poll. Biden garnered 48 percent support among white voters to Trump’s 44 percent, the poll found. Among independents, the former vice president performs even better, notching a 51-33 percent lead over Trump.

The tight race between Biden and Trump for the support of Hispanic voters in Miami-Dade, however, suggests that the president has seen some success in courting Cuban Americans, a massively influential voting bloc in Florida and especially in Miami-Dade.

Those voters have historically leaned Republican far more than other Latinos in the state. In the 2016 presidential election, Clinton won about 62 percent of the total Latino vote in Florida, while Trump carried about 35 percent overall. Among Cuban Americans, however, Trump garnered about 54 percent support among those voters to Clinton’s 41 percent, according to exit polling. 

The Bendixen & Amandi poll came days after another survey from the Democratic firm Equis Research showed Biden underperforming Clinton’s margins among Hispanic voters in Florida. In that poll, the Democratic nominee led Trump 53-37 percent among Hispanic voters statewide.

The Miami Herald-Bendixen & Amandi International poll surveyed 500 likely voters in Miami-Dade County from Sept. 1 to Sept. 4. It has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points for the entire sample of voters.