Poll: Trump opens up 6-point lead over Biden in Iowa

President Trump has widened his lead over Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in Iowa, according to a new Monmouth University poll that shows Trump running 6 points ahead of the former vice president.

The survey found Trump garnering 50 percent support among registered voters in Iowa to Biden’s 44 percent, doubling his lead from 3 points in August to 6 points in September.

But among those voters most likely to cast their ballot in the November election, the race tightens, with Trump capturing 49 percent support to Biden’s 46 percent. Those margins hold in scenarios in which turnout is higher than 2016 levels or lower than it was four years ago.

“Trump’s overall voter support has broadened slightly while Biden’s has held steady,” Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said. “However, this does not seem to be translating to a significantly wider lead for the incumbent among those most likely to vote in November. It is still a very tight race.”

Still, the poll results suggest that Trump still has the advantage in a state that he carried in 2016 by more than 9 percentage points.

In Iowa’s contested Senate race, Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) and Democrat Theresa Greenfield are deadlocked at 47 percent each. Under a model in which voter turnout is higher than in 2016, however, Greenfield gains a 3-point edge, capturing 49 percent support to Ernst’s 46 percent. 

A model accounting for lower turnout than 2016 shows Greenfield with an ultra-slim lead over Ernst, at 48 percent to 47 percent.

Iowa voters are largely split on whether Trump should nominate a new Supreme Court justice to replace Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg before the November election. Just under half of respondents — 47 percent — said they support such a move, while 50 percent disapprove. 

Ginsburg, one of the court’s liberal justices, died on Friday from complications of metastatic pancreatic cancer. Her death set off an immediate fight over whether Trump should name a replacement before the election, with Democrats urging Senate Republicans to stick to the precedent they set in 2016 when they refused to hold a confirmation hearing for former President Obama’s Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland.

Trump is expected to name a nominee for Ginsburg’s seat on Saturday, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has said he plans to quickly move forward with the confirmation process. 

The Monmouth University poll surveyed 402 registered Iowa voters Sept. 18-22. It has a margin of sampling error of 4.9 percentage points.