Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, your daily rundown on all the latest news in the 2020 presidential, Senate and House races. Did someone forward this to you? Click here to subscribe.
We’re Julia Manchester, Max Greenwood and Jonathan Easley. Here’s what we’re watching today on the campaign trail:
LEADING THE DAY:
It’s fight night in Cleveland.
The long-awaited first presidential debate between President Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden is finally here.
No one knows what to expect, except that pretty much everyone believes it could rank among the nastiest and most personal presidential debates ever.
How far will Trump go in attacking Biden’s health or dragging Hunter Biden’s business dealings into the spotlight? Will Biden return the personal attacks or try to pivot back to the president’s handling of the coronavirus?
Moderator Chris Wallace will be running the show, and he’s said he hopes to fade into the background and allow the candidates to duke it out for 90 minutes of uninterrupted debate.
The debate will be broken up into segments focusing on the coronavirus pandemic, the Supreme Court, Trump’s and Biden’s records, the economy, the integrity of the election and “race and violence in our cities.”
Biden has had a clear and steady lead in the polls heading into debate night. He’s the clear favorite, at the moment, to be the next president.
Many of the dynamics that worked in Trump’s favor during his narrow election victory in 2016 are working against him this time around. Biden has run up a big lead in the polls among independents, suburban women and voters who dislike both candidates. Third-party voting is not expected to be a big factor in 2020.
But Democrats are on edge, viewing Trump as a wounded animal who is ready to lash out. They know he’ll be aiming for a game-changing moment that embarrasses Biden and potentially turns the tide of the election with only 35 days to go.
Tune it at 9 p.m. and stay with The Hill all night for breaking news and analysis on this historic moment.
Trump, Biden set for high stakes showdown, by Jonathan Easley.
Five things to watch for at the first presidential debate, by Max Greenwood.
The Biden campaign received a treasure trove of potential new attacks this week in the form of a New York Times report revealing that Trump paid just $750 in federal income tax in both 2016 and 2017 and paid no taxes in 10 of the 15 previous years.
The paper detailed the questionable — but apparently legal — tactics the president used to lower his tax bill over multiple years.
Biden on Tuesday, just hours ahead of the debate, released his own 2019 federal and state tax returns
Biden and his wife reported an adjusted gross income of $985,233 and paid a total of $299,346 in taxes, for an effective tax rate of about 30 percent.
Max and Naomi Jagoda have the full rundown HERE.
THE HILL’S CENTURY OF THE WOMAN:
We’re launching a new project today highlighting women trailblazers who have changed the world in the century since the passage of the 19th Amendment. You can check out our stories here.
While we have you…
RSVP FOR OUR CENTURY OF THE WOMAN SUMMIT ON 9/30: On Wednesday, September 30, The Hill Virtually Live hosts a three-part program bringing together remarkable women leaders and decision-makers to discuss progress and the barriers that remain. Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao, Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo, Rep. Terri Sewell, Lilly Ledbetter, Ellevest’s Sallie Krawcheck, Hilda Solis, Tina Tchen and many more. RSVP today for event reminders.
POLLING RUNDOWN:
Is it getting close to time for Republicans to panic in Georgia? The latest Quinnipiac University poll finds Biden edging Trump by 3 points there. Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.) is tied with Democrat Jon Ossoff and Democrat Raphael Warnock leads everyone in the crowded Senate special election.
The Trump campaign is spending to defend Georgia, which has not gone for the Democratic nominee in nearly 30 years. It’s a battleground in 2020.
Meanwhile, in New Hampshire, a state Hillary Clinton won narrowly in 2016, Biden has an 8 point lead, according to a new survey from the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion. The Trump campaign is seeking to flip New Hampshire but the president appears to have some ground to make up there in the final month.
More troubles for Trump: The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has moved Iowa and Ohio from leaning Republican to the toss-up category. Trump won both states easily in 2016.
STATE WATCH:
State political parties are raking in huge sums from big donors and the two national party committees. The Hill’s Reid Wilson dug through campaign finance reports and found that state party organizations have collected more than $370 million through the end of August. Here are some highlights from Reid’s reporting:
- Seven state Democratic parties have raised more than $10 million this year, with Wisconsin the largest recipient of funds (more than $20 million through the end of August).
- State Democratic parties have raised a combined $213 million through the end of August, and had just under $40 million in cash reserves heading into September.
- The Florida and Texas Republican parties have raised more than $14 million each this year, with state parties in California, Michigan, North Carolina and Ohio nearing the $10 million mark.
- State Republican parties have brought in a combined $157 million, and had about $45 million on hand heading into the post-Labor Day campaign sprint.
State parties often don’t draw the kind of fundraising dollars that high-profile candidates or national party committees do. But they’ve emerged as important clearinghouses, especially for down-ballot candidates who lack the resources, media attention and name recognition that come with Senate or presidential campaigns.