NYT-Siena poll finds Biden up three points in Iowa

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds a narrow 3-point lead over President Trump in Iowa, according to a new poll from The New York Times and Siena College released on Wednesday.

The poll shows Biden notching 46 percent support in the Hawkeye State, with Trump taking 43 percent. Another 7 percent said they are undecided or declined to name their choice. 

Biden’s support in the state is driven by women, young people and white college-educated voters. Fifty-five percent of each group said they are backing the former vice president over Trump. 

But the poll also shows Biden gaining ground with key constituencies that helped propel Trump to victory in 2016. Biden now leads Trump 49 to 42 percent among voters 65 and older, while Trump now has only a 7-point advantage over Biden among whites without college degrees, at 48 to 41 percent.

In 2016, Trump carried white Iowa voters without college degrees by a 20-point margin, according to exit polls. That same year, he won seniors by a slim 51 to 47 percent margin.

Iowa has emerged as one of the most competitive battlegrounds in the presidential contest, despite Trump’s nearly 10-point margin of victory there four years ago. A Monmouth University poll released earlier on Wednesday showed Trump and Biden statistically tied at 48 to 47 percent. 

In a sign that he may be at risk of losing Iowa, Trump held a rally last week in Des Moines. Biden, meanwhile, hasn’t visited Iowa since January. 

The New York Times-Siena College poll also found Biden’s favorability rating above water, with 50 percent reporting a favorable view of the former vice president and 47 percent saying they have an unfavorable opinion of him. 

Trump, meanwhile, is underwater. Forty-six percent of respondents said they view him favorably compared to 51 percent who see him in an unfavorable light. 

The New York Times-Siena College poll surveyed 753 likely voters in Iowa from Oct. 18 to 20. It has a margin of sampling error of 4 percentage points.