President Trump has a 7-point edge over Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in Kansas after he won the state by over 20 points in 2016, according to a new New York Times/Siena College poll released Thursday.
Trump has the support of 48 percent of likely Kansas voters, according to the poll, compared with 41 percent for Biden. Four percent are voting for Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen, and another 6 percent are undecided.
While independents break Biden’s way by a 46 percent to 33 percent margin, the president has maintained a 24-point lead among men and double-digit leads with voters over the age of 45. The president is leading by a substantial 59 percent to 32 percent margin among rural voters, who make up half of the state’s electorate.
He’s also narrowed Biden’s lead among women — a demographic the former vice president will need to break hard his way in Kansas and elsewhere — to just 8 points.
The brightest spot for Biden rests in the suburbs, where he leads by a narrow 46 percent to 43 percent margin, reflecting the national trend of such areas breaking away from the president.
Overall, 51 percent of likely voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 45 percent disapprove. Biden’s favorability rating is underwater in Kansas, where 44 percent of likely voters have a favorable view of him, and 52 percent of voters have an unfavorable view.
The drop from Trump’s overwhelming win in 2016 is stark in the ruby-red state, which has voted for the Republican presidential nominee in 12 consecutive races, though the state is still expected to vote for the president.
But the move away from Trump in Kansas may be impacting the state’s Senate race, which the new poll shows as a margin-of-error contest.
Rep. Roger Marshall (R) leads with 46 percent of the vote, followed in second by state Sen. Barbara Bollier (D) with 42 percent. The difference falls just within the poll’s margin of error, and 6 percent of voters also remain undecided.
The Kansas Senate race is not considered as competitive as others in states like Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina, though Democratic and Republican outside groups have poured in money as polls have shown a tightening contest. Bollier has cast herself as a centrist lawmaker after defecting from the GOP in 2018, while Democrats hope Marshall emerged wounded from a bitter GOP primary against hard-liner Kris Kobach.
The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, rates the Senate race as “lean” Republican.
The New York Times/Siena College poll surveyed 755 likely Kansas voters from Oct. 18-20 and has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.