Trump predicts GOP will win the House

President Trump predicted at the final presidential debate on Thursday that Republicans would take back the House majority, contrary to the expectations of most election experts. 

“I think we’re going to win the House,” Trump said speaking from the debate stage in Nashville. 

He later said that he believes his party will take back the House in part because of the behavior Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), saying he wants a coronavirus stimulus deal, but she is stopping it.  

“That’s one of the reasons I think we’re going to take over the House because of her,” the president said. 

Republicans face a significant uphill battle to take back the House majority, which they lost in 2018. The GOP would need a net gain of 18 seats to flip the lower chamber and in many cases find themselves spending to defend districts they currently hold.

Nonpartisan election forecasters say Democrats have the advantage. Inside Elections has projected Democrats will pick up a net of 10 to 20 seats in the lower chamber, and the Cook Political Report predicts Democrats will likely expand their majority. 

Down-ballot Republicans have had to deal with a number of retirements, particularly in Texas, and redistricting that have together put the party in a defensive position. GOP House candidates have also had to take into account Trump’s low approval ratings, to which Democrats have tied them.