The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden’s big battleground | Trump and Harris hit the trail in Arizona | Turnout surges among new voters

Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, your daily rundown on all the latest news in the 2020 presidential, Senate and House races. Did someone forward this to you? Click here to subscribe.

We’re Julia Manchester, Max Greenwood and Jonathan Easley. Here’s what we’re watching today on the campaign trail:

LEADING THE DAY:

There’s a new batch of polling out of key battleground states, and none of it brings particularly good news for President Trump. 

The most striking poll out today comes from ABC News and The Washington Post and shows Trump trailing former Vice President Joe Biden by 17 points — 57 to 40 percent — among likely voters in Wisconsin. To be sure, the poll is an outlier, but it also comes as the Badger State sees a massive spike in COVID-19 cases and coronavirus-related deaths, and if anything has been made clear over the past seven or so months, it’s that Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic is one of his greatest weaknesses with voters. 

Another Wisconsin poll from Marquette Law School released on Wednesday found Biden with a more-modest 5-point lead: 48 to 43 percent. But that survey also shows the race remaining relatively stable. Another Marquette poll released earlier this month found Biden leading Trump 47 to 42 percent. 

Meanwhile, in Michigan, another former “blue wall” state that Trump carried in 2016, a new poll from The New York Times and Siena College showed Biden leading Trump 49 to 41 percent, propelled by strong support among women, Black voters and college-educated white voters.

In another sign of trouble for Trump, a Monmouth University poll showed Biden gaining a 5-point advantage over the president in Georgia, a state that Trump carried in 2016 by 5 points and one that could portend bigger trouble for him on election night if Biden is able to pull off a win there. That same Monmouth poll also spelled trouble for Republicans in both of the state’s Senate races; Democrat Jon Ossoff led Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.) 49 to 46 percent, while Democrat Raphael Warnock notched 41 percent support in the special election for former Sen. Johnny Isakson’s (R-Ga.) old seat. The two top Republicans in that race, Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) and Rep. Doug Collins (R-Ga.), garnered 21 and 18 percent support, respectively.

Democrats have long been reluctant to express optimism about Biden’s chances, given Hillary Clinton’s unexpected loss in 2016. But some are becoming more bullish about their odds heading into the final days of the 2020 presidential race. On Wednesday, Guy Cecil, the chair of Priorities USA, the largest Democratic super PAC, declared that even red states like Texas are “up for grabs,” and noted that the group’s polling data shows the race breaking in Biden’s favor. 

“This is the largest number of states we’ve had in the Democrat, lean Democrat and toss-ups category since we began doing this work,” Cecil said. “Overall, the numbers are moving in our direction as we head into the final week.”

READ MORE:

Top Democrat strikes bullish tone: ‘Numbers are moving in our direction,’ by Jonathan. 

Biden takes 5-point lead over Trump in Georgia in new poll, by Max. 

Poll: Biden holds on to 8-point lead in Michigan, by The Hill’s Justine Coleman.

Biden maintains 5-point lead over Trump in Wisconsin: poll, by Max.

Biden up 17 points in new Wisconsin poll, by The Hill’s John Bowden.

TRAIL HAPPENINGS

Wednesday marked yet another busy day on the campaign trail in the final week before Election Day. 

President Trump and Democratic vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris both campaigned in Arizona — Trump holding a rally in Bullhead City and Harris holding a drive-in rally in Tucson. 

The president used his go-to jabs to hit Biden and Democrats, and claimed that the former vice president was mentally “shot.” Additionally, he said that Biden would hike taxes across the board. 

Trump also addressed the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, claiming that the U.S. was in a better place with the virus, despite rising case counts across the country. 

“We will deliver record prosperity, epic job growth, and a safe vaccine is coming very quickly,” the president said. “We are rounding the turn regardless, you know that.” 

In Tucson, Harris hit Trump over the handling of the coronavirus pandemic, telling an audience in 100 cars that he “failed the American people.” 

Additionally the senator took aim at Trump’s efforts to dismantle the Affordable Care Act, also known as ObamaCare. 

“You have Donald Trump who together with his boy Bill Barr are in the United States Supreme Court suing to get rid of the Affordable Care Act,” she said. 

Meanwhile, Biden delivered remarks in Wilmington, Del., after receiving a coronavirus public health briefing. He then went to cast his own ballot and took questions from reporters. Biden addressed the violence in Philadelphia over the police killing of Walter Wallace Jr.

“There is no excuse whatsoever for the looting and the violence. None whatsoever,” Biden said. “I think to be able to protest is a totally legitimate, totally reasonable.” 

“As the victim’s father said, ‘do not do this. You’re not helping, you’re hurting. You’re hurting my son,'” he said. 

THE TURNOUT GAME:

Six days out from Election Day, at least 75 million people have already cast their ballots, many of them for the first time.

More than 16 million people who didn’t vote in 2016 have cast ballots this year. Many of those voters, according to experts tracking early-voting data, are young people and minorities. The high turnout among voters who sat out the 2016 election is the latest sign of sky-high enthusiasm to vote in one of the most divisive elections in modern U.S. history. 

Both young voters and minorities are disproportionately Democratic. In Florida, for instance, more than 335,000 voters between 18 and 29 who did not vote in 2016 have cast their ballots so far. Half of those voters are registered Democrats; about a quarter are registered Republicans. Remember: Trump carried Florida in 2016 by little more than 100,000 votes, so those early numbers aren’t insignificant.

Likewise, in Georgia, a state that Biden appears to have a real shot at winning this year, more than 700,000 Georgia voters who didn’t vote four years ago have already cast ballots. Nearly a third of those voters are African American, and nearly 30 percent are under 30 years old. 

The Hill’s Reid Wilson has a deeper dive into the numbers here.