Biden leading in Pennsylvania and Ohio: poll

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has leads in Pennsylvania and Ohio in a new survey from Quinnipiac University Poll, indicating strength in two key Rust Belt states the former vice president is looking to return to the Democratic column this November. 

Biden gets the support of 51 percent of likely voters in Pennsylvania, compared to 44 percent for President Trump. Another 4 percent are undecided. The Democrat has a 48 percent to 43 percent advantage in Ohio, where another 8 percent of likely voters are undecided.

Biden’s favorability rating is positive in both states. In Pennsylvania, 51 percent of likely voters say they have a favorable opinion of him, compared to 43 percent who have an unfavorable view. The margin is much tighter in Ohio, where 47 percent of likely voters have a favorable view of the former vice president, while 46 percent have an unfavorable opinion. 

The leads in each state are fueled not only by Biden running up the margins among Democratic-leaning blocs, including double-digit advantages among women, voters under 35 and people of color, but also his 10-point lead among seniors, historically a Republican-leaning group, in both states. Trump maintains leads among men and white voters.

Trump won both Pennsylvania and Ohio in 2016 in his upset victory over Hillary Clinton. His win in Pennsylvania marked the first time the Keystone State went for a GOP presidential nominee since 1988, while he won Ohio, a perennial swing state, by a comfortable 9-point margin, leading Democrats to all but write the Buckeye State off earlier this cycle. 

Both states will test Biden’s hypothesis that he can win back white, working-class Americans who historically voted Democratic but shirked the party in favor of Trump’s historic 2016 bid, which effectively mixed messages of white grievance with tales of the “forgotten” Americans who were left behind by international trade deals and “globalists.”

“As the pressure builds and both campaigns circle their wagons around Pennsylvania, Joe Biden holds onto his lead as Donald Trump hopes to recreate his 2016 win there. What’s working to Biden’s advantage is his ability to stay above 50 percent support, and that voters like him better than they do Trump,” said Quinnipiac University polling analyst Mary Snow.

Of Ohio she added: “A race that’s been virtually tied now looks to be tilting toward Joe Biden. The question is whether he can hold onto that slight lead in a state where President Trump won comfortably in 2016.”

The Quinnipiac University Poll surveyed 1,324 likely voters in Pennsylvania and 1,186 likely voters in Ohio from Oct. 23-27. The polls have margins of error of 2.7 percentage points and 2.9 points, respectively, for the two states.