Kemp’s move scrambles GOP effort to oust Ossoff

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s (R) decision to pass on a Senate challenge to Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) is setting off a scramble among Republicans ahead of one of the most crucial races in next year’s midterms.

Republicans were intent on recruiting the popular governor, who would have likely entered the race with an edge against Ossoff, a first-term incumbent who scored an upset victory in 2021 in a state President Trump would go on to win by a few points in last year’s election.

Kemp’s surprise decision not to run dealt a blow to the party and has left it without a clear nominee, with some Republicans acknowledging their path to flipping the seat has gotten trickier.

“They are in shambles,” one Georgia Republican operative said when asked about the party’s mood since the Kemp announcement.

“Nothing makes me optimistic. I mean … this is a red state if you have the right candidate and if you have the right national mood,” the operative said. “And I’m just looking at this going, like, not going to have the right candidate, national mood is bad.”

Kemp’s announcement has left the door wide open for other Republicans. Among those who have stirred speculation that they might announce Senate bids are Georgia Reps. Buddy Carter, Rich McCormick, Marjorie Taylor Greene and Mike Collins, in addition to Georgia Insurance Commissioner John King and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.

Raffensperger and Greene might also run for governor.

Recent polling had shown Kemp to be a formidable candidate against Ossoff. A survey released by The Atlantic Journal-Constitution, conducted by University of Georgia’s School of Public & International Affairs Survey Research Center, showed Kemp edging out Ossoff 49 percent to 45.7 percent in a hypothetical match-up, within the poll’s margin of error.

The polling shows Ossoff with a 48 percent approval rating in the state, compared to Kemp with a 60 percent approval rating.

That same polling showed Raffensperger faring better against Ossoff than King or Greene did — but still trailing the incumbent by close to 10 points.

“We’re in for a tougher fight without him on the ballot,” another Georgia Republican operative said.

Still, the second GOP operative suggested there was room for hope within the party despite Kemp not running.

“I’m cautiously optimistic, and I think other people are too that the governor and the president can, you know, unite potentially behind someone or help kind of guide the primary field in a way that is helpful and gives us the best chance to have a good nominee with the best chance of winning in November,” the operative said.

That same source believes Ossoff is vulnerable, pointing to his vote in favor of the Inflation Reduction Act and his record on issues such as the border, transgender women playing in sports that align with their gender identity and his vote on two resolutions, which ultimately failed, that would have barred certain arms sales to Israel.

Ossoff has previously defended his record, including his criticism of legislation Republicans wanted to advance that would have banned schools receiving federal funding from allowing transgender women to participate in women sports. He has also stood by his Israel resolutions, arguing that using the leverage “that comes with the provision of arms” was “not just sometimes necessary, it’s expected and appropriate.”

A third Republican suggested the party still feels good about its chances to win the seat.

“I don’t think Georgians are that depressed. I think they’re more optimistic,” the third operative said.

“As opposed to D.C. … there might be some people that think, ‘Oh, well, if Kemp’s not running, then we’re just, you know, tough luck,’” the operative added.

Stewart Bragg, a Georgia Republican strategist who worked on Lt. Gov. Burt Jones’s 2022 campaign, described Ossoff as “as far to the left as Bernie Sanders” in a statement and said: “Regardless of who the Republican nominee ends up being, Jon Ossoff remains the most vulnerable incumbent in the nation.”

One Republican who has made the party anxious, however, is Greene, a firebrand conservative who has closely aligned herself with the president and who’s attracted controversy over some of her remarks.

Members of the party expressed concern that while she could prevail in a Republican contest, she’d have a harder time in the general election. Some surveys have showed her trailing Ossoff by double digits. The Democratic senator, meanwhile, has appeared to goad her to get into the race.

The third Republican operative said they “don’t know anybody outside of her” that thought “those polls of her general election match-up are not accurate.”

Greene’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

In an interview on The Hill’s sister news channel NewsNation on Monday, she maintained that polling showed her faring well in whichever race she decided to pursue.

“The polling shows I can win the governor’s primary or I can win the Senate primary,” she said.

“That’s a choice that I can make, and I’ll give it some thought,” she said when pressed which one she was pursuing. She said she did not have a time frame for her decision.

Members of the party are also keenly aware that they could be contending with midterm backlash that the president’s party in power typically sees. The AJC poll found Trump’s approval rating at 43 percent, and Democrats across the country have been looking to galvanize anger around the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency and the effect of its cuts.

Republicans also acknowledge Ossoff is a fundraising juggernaut. He hauled in $11 million in his last fundraising quarter alone.

Members of the GOP underscore that candidate quality will be crucial in the primary, particularly after the 2022 cycle in which the party nominated former football star Herschel Walker as its nominee. His personal controversies dogged him in the general election, helping Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) win the seat.

“I’m hoping that Georgians are very attentive to what happened in 2020 and 2022, especially 2022, where we nominated a candidate that was the reason that we didn’t win,” said Cole Muzio, founder and president of the Family Policy Alliance of Georgia and a Kemp ally.

“We need to make sure that we’re very discerning as we approach the nomination process,” he added.

But the party maintains that it’s prepared, no matter who emerges as its nominee. 

“As we’ve said for the past few months, Senator Ossoff is well-prepared to defeat any challenger,” Ossoff campaign manager Ellen Foster said in a statement Monday.