Cornyn trailing Paxton by 22 points in Texas GOP Senate primary: Poll

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) trails Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) by 22 points in the state’s Republican Senate primary, according to a poll released Tuesday.

The survey, which was conducted by pollster Robert Blizzard on behalf of the Educational Freedom Institute and first obtained by Punchbowl News, showed Paxton leading Cornyn 50 percent to 28 percent among Republican primary voters. 

Paxton expanded his lead among voters described as “very conservative GOP primary voters,” leading Cornyn 60 percent to 22 percent. Among voters described as “high propensity 3/3 GOP primary voters,” Paxton leads Cornyn by 30 points. The poll also showed Paxton leading Cornyn by 35 points among “MAGA voters” and by 12 points among senior voters. 

In a statement to The Hill, Cornyn’s campaign said it was “silly season for polling and this one takes the gold medal.”

“A poll conducted by a longtime Paxton supporter doesn’t pass the smell test. We remain confident that once Republican primary voters fully understand Ken Paxton’s record of ethical failures, mismanagement and corruption, we will win this primary,” said Matt Mackowiak, a Cornyn campaign senior adviser.

The poll is the latest in a string of data points showing the incumbent trailing the conservative primary challenger. Last week, a poll from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University showed Paxton leading in a hypothetical two-way contest with 43 percent to Cornyn’s 34 percent, and 23 percent unsure.

A separate internal poll released last month by the Senate Leadership Fund, which is supporting Cornyn, showed Paxton trailing Cornyn by 16 points. 

Cornyn’s allies have maintained that once the primary campaign kicks into full swing and voters become more engaged, the gap in the polls will begin to close. Another factor that stands to impact the race is a potential President Trump endorsement. 

However, Tuesday’s poll finds Cornyn appears to lose support on “an informed ballot test.” After voters were told to assume Trump would endorse Cornyn, Paxton would attack Cornyn for his past comments on Trump and Paxton would attack Cornyn over working with Democrats on gun safety legislation, Cornyn trailed Paxton 62 percent to 21 percent. 

The poll was conducted May 27-28 among 600 Texas Republican primary voters on behalf of the Educational Freedom Institute. The margin of error is 4 percentage points.