Kamala Harris sees support drop in potential 2028 horse race: Poll

Support for former Vice President Kamala Harris in the theoretical 2028 presidential horse race has dropped, polling indicates, as she weighs her next political steps. 

The latest Emerson College Polling survey found Harris in second place among a field of potential 2028 Democrats, receiving support from 13 percent of Democratic primary voters. She lagged slightly behind former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who was at 16 percent. 

The biggest share of Democratic voters, 23 percent, said they were still undecided. Just a hair behind Harris was term-limited California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), with 12 percent. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) rounded out the top five possible contenders, with 7 percent each. 

The latest numbers are significantly different from Emerson’s November survey, when respondents were asked to write in their preferred 2028 candidate. Taken a couple of weeks after the 2024 election, Harris received 37 percent support, followed by Newsom with 7 percent, Buttigieg with 4 percent and Shapiro with 3 percent. Another 35 percent were undecided.

On the heels of her loss in the 2024 presidential race, speculation is swirling about Harris’s next moves.

She’s reportedly giving serious consideration to a run for governor in California, which she previously represented in the Senate and where she served as state Attorney General. The suspense has had a freezing effect on the gubernatorial field, and she’s said to have given herself an end-of-summer deadline to decide whether to enter.

At the same time, early 2028 polling has repeatedly shown Harris as a Democratic front-runner if she were to lodge another bid for the White House. A run for the Golden State governor’s mansion could take a 2028 presidential campaign off the table, but she’s reportedly considering all options.

“I’m not going anywhere,” Harris said at a leadership summit for Black women in California this spring.

Across the aisle, the poll found Vice President Vance with a clear lead among potential Republican contenders for 2028, with 46 percent support from GOP primary voters. Just 17 percent were undecided.

Next were Secretary of State Marco Rubio with 12 percent and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who ran against Trump in the 2024 primary, with 9 percent.

On a generic 2028 presidential ballot, voters were split between the two major parties, with 42 percent apiece backing the generic Democratic candidate and the generic Republican. Another 16 percent were undecided.

Independents broke for the generic Democrat 37 percent to 29 percent, with 34 percent undecided.

Conducted June 24-25, the poll surveyed 1,000 U.S. active registered voters and had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.