Pro-Vance poll shows tight race in Ohio GOP Senate primary

A new poll conducted for a super PAC supporting JD Vance’s Republican Senate bid in Ohio shows a tight race between him and state Treasurer Josh Mandel in the GOP primary. 

The poll conducted for Protect Ohio Values PAC and obtained by The Hill shows Mandel leading the crowded field with 19 percent support among likely primary voters, compared with 16 percent for Vance, the “Hillbilly Elegy” author. The same poll from April had Mandel leading Vance by a 25-6 margin. 

While the Republican primary to replace retiring Sen. Rob Portman (R) remains crowded, Mandel and Vance are the only ones to hit double digits. Still, 43 percent of likely voters said they are undecided.

The primary is largely characterized by candidates pronouncing their support for former President Trump, who has yet to issue an endorsement in the race. Besides Mandel and Vance, investment banker Mike Gibbons, former state GOP Chairman Jane Timken, state Sen. Matt Dolan and businessman Bernie Moreno are also running. 

Mandel has consistently led scant public and private polling since he launched his campaign and has waged an aggressive social media blitz touting his campaign as well as a slew of culture war issues that are known to play well with the Trump base. 

An internal poll conducted for his campaign last month found him leading the field by 24 points.

The pro-Vance poll, which was conducted for the super PAC by prominent GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio, surveyed 600 likely primary voters from Oct. 17-18 and has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.