A plurality of Democrats say their party will have a better chance of keeping the White House in 2024 if they nominate someone other than President Biden, according to a new poll out Monday.
The NPR-PBS NewsHour-Marist poll found 44 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents believe that a new nominee will give them their best shot at victory in the next presidential election, while 36 percent want the party to stick with Biden. Another 20 percent aren’t sure.
The findings are a foreboding sign for Biden, whose victory in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary hinged on his argument that he was the most electable candidate in a head-to-head match-up with now-former President Trump.
But Biden has had a tough few months in office. After early successes in curbing the COVID-19 pandemic, the country saw a surge in new infections over the summer driven by the more-contagious delta variant. Biden also faced criticism for the chaotic withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in August.
Since then, his approval rating has plummeted. The Marist poll released on Monday shows that 44 percent of registered voters approve of the job he’s doing in the Oval Office, while 49 percent disapprove.
Biden’s party is also facing waning political fortunes ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, according to the Marist poll.
While more voters still say they will vote for Democrats in next year’s congressional elections than those who plan to vote for Republicans — 44 percent to 41 percent — the party’s support is trending downward. A Marist poll released in September showed Democrats leading Republicans 46 percent to 38 percent.
Democrats are defending ultranarrow majorities in both the House and the Senate next year. Republicans need to flip just five seats in the House and net only one in the Senate to recapture control of Congress.
While many Democrats are skeptical of Biden’s strength as a candidate in the 2024 presidential race, Republicans are largely behind Trump. Fifty percent of GOP voters and Republican-leaning independents say that nominating the former president would give them their best chance at victory. Another 35 percent say they would prefer to nominate somebody else.
The NPR-PBS NewsHour-Marist poll surveyed 1,032 registered voters nationwide from Oct. 18 to 22. It has a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points.