Sen. James Inhofe’s (R-Okla.) announcement Friday that he will retire early next year is expected to trigger a crowded special election primary for an open Senate seat in a state where one rarely comes along.
Two candidates have already jumped into the race since the announcement, and others are expected to leap at the opportunity, with early jockeying pointing to a flood of endorsements to come.
“You’re gonna start to see a lot of political movement now,” said Chad Alexander, a former chairman of the Oklahoma GOP.
Inhofe, who holds a prominent role as ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, on Friday announced he would relinquish in early 2023 the seat he first won in 1994. The 87-year-old is grappling with a case of COVID-19, and his wife has also had health issues.
Under state law, the special election to replace him will take place in November, at the same time as the rest of the midterm races, because he announced his retirement before March 1. The primaries will be held over the summer.
“It is now time for that next generation of Oklahomans to have the opportunity to serve the state in the U.S. Senate,” he said in a statement.
In the same statement, Inhofe also announced he was endorsing Luke Holland, his former chief of staff, to replace him, calling Holland a “fierce conservative and the best person to continue my legacy of a strong national defense and investment in local infrastructure.”
The endorsement is not expected to clear the field by a long shot.
Republican Rep. Markwayne Mullin, who represents Oklahoma’s 2nd Congressional District, announced his campaign in a Twitter post Saturday, saying “I’m in.”
“It won’t be easy, but I’ve never backed down from a fight – and that’s exactly why I’m running for the United States Senate,” he added in a statement.
Among the other Republicans floated as potential candidates are Rep. Kevin Hern, who represents Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District, and former state House Speaker T.W. Shannon. Gov. Kevin Stitt and Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell have been mentioned in media reports, but operatives in Oklahoma said they expect them to stay put.
Gentner Drummond, who is currently running for state attorney general, and Mick Cornett, who ran for governor and lost in a runoff to Stitt in 2018, could also jump into the race.
Few candidates besides Holland and Mullin have voiced explicit interest in the race, though Shannon said on Instagram after Inhofe’s announcement that he and his family are “seeking God’s guidance on how our gifts and talents can best be of service to the people of Oklahoma.”
Strategists in Oklahoma consider Hern, Mullin and Shannon to be the most viable candidates to win the nomination ahead of the November election. While Holland has Inhofe’s backing, operatives say it could be hard to overcome the name ID of the top three potential candidates.
“I would say that the tier one ones would be Hern, Mullin and T.W. Shannon, tier two Drummond and Cornett, and Holland, maybe tier five,” said one Oklahoma GOP strategist. “I mean, the only thing he has is the Inhofe endorsement.”
Still, Holland and Mullin are getting a head start over the rest of their would-be opponents. Holland announced his campaign at a press conference Friday and leaned into a spate of issues popular with the Republican base.
Holland said the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention “perjured themselves” over the coronavirus pandemic and accused Democrats of waging “an assault by the left on oil and gas” over climate change bills. However, he did say he supports Inhofe’s decision last year to uphold the results of the 2020 presidential race.
“No one – and I mean no one – has fought harder to advance Donald Trump’s Make America Great Again agenda,” Mullin added in his own statement. “I’m the conservative outsider who will stop Joe Biden’s reckless agenda and take power away from DC’s corrupt political class and their revolving door of career insiders feeding themselves at taxpayers’ expense.”
The contours of the GOP primary are likely going to be shaped by similar postures given Oklahoma’s red hue.
Pat McFerron, an Oklahoma GOP pollster and strategist, expected a mix of culture wars and military issues to animate the primary given the state’s several military bases and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
“Military issues, and given Inhofe’s strength in the Senate, I think that’s gonna be a very important issue. Other important issues we have in the state are kind of cultural, standing up to kind of the woke cancel culture, really important in a Republican primary here,” he said. “I also think that whoever can be the best nemesis to Joe Biden — nobody unites Oklahoma Republicans better than Joe Biden does.”
With most in agreement on policy, candidates are expected to differentiate themselves largely on personality.
“There’ll be a lot of similarities in a lot of ways, but I think they’ll all have their own unique twist and backgrounds on how they present and also how they deliver the message. Oftentimes in a primary you’ll see people that have a lot of policy alignments, but it’s delivering the message and selling the message and getting people to believe you’re the person who’s best equipped to deal with it,” Alexander said.
Looming over the race is former President Trump, who won all 77 Oklahoma counties in 2016 and 2020 and remains wildly popular in the state.
The state Republican Party has a countdown on its website until the 2024 race in increments of “MAGA Days,” “MAGA Hours,” “MAGA Minutes” and “MAGA Seconds.” That same state party is backing a primary challenger to Sen. James Lankford (R) in his reelection bid this year for not endorsing Trump’s allegations that the 2020 election was stolen from him.
While it’s unclear if Trump will get involved, the candidates will likely try to tie themselves closely to him to appeal to his fervent base and avoid any blowback like the kind Lankford faces.
“President Trump still has a huge following, obviously, in the state of Oklahoma,” said Alexander. “I think Trump’s a major figure everywhere in the Republican Party. Oklahoma is no different.”
Despite the policy overlap and expected competition for Trump’s support, McFerron said he expects the primary to be civil — at least until a runoff, which “will be incredibly nasty.”
“With most voters not seeing much ideological difference between these folks, if you attack somebody or someone gets attacked, you don’t know where those votes are gonna go. They’re not necessarily going to you,” he said.
“I don’t see how we don’t have a runoff,” he added.
Beyond the Senate race, Inhofe’s retirement could lead to a broader shakeup in Oklahoma politics.
If Hern joins Mullin in running for the Senate, it would open up two of Oklahoma’s five House seats, potentially sparking bids by state legislators — which in turn could create a string of open seats in the state legislature.
That, on top of Lankford’s Senate race, means Oklahoma is likely headed toward a flurry of political activity through November.
“If both the congressmen from the first and second district get in, then you’re gonna have two open congressional seats, and so you’ll see crowded primaries there. And then that may open up state House and Senate seats. So, this is will be a political domino effect of where you’ll see probably a lot of open seats in Oklahoma right now,” Alexander said. “I think it’s just the beginning.”