The Hill’s Campaign Report — Democrats’ redistricting rollercoaster

Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, where we’ll be tracking all things related to the 2022 midterm elections. You can expect this newsletter in your inbox each week leading up to November’s election. Someone forward this to you? Sign up here and view the full edition here.

Today we’re looking at the setbacks Democrats are facing as states finalize newly drawn congressional maps and a familiar issue Republicans are turning to in their bid to recapture Congress.

Email us tips and feedback: Max Greenwood (mgreenwood@digital-release.thehill.com), Julia Manchester (jmanchester@digital-release.thehill.com), Tal Axelrod (taxelrod@digital-release.thehill.com) and Mychael Schnell (mschnell@digital-release.thehill.com).  

Democrats face redistricting setbacks

Democrats may be faring better than expected in the fight over redistricting – but it’s not all good news for them.  

Over the past few days, Democrats’ redistricting prospects have dimmed in key states. Last Friday, a judge in Maryland invalidated a heavily gerrymandered congressional map that would have likely created a seven-to-one split favoring Democrats. In another blow, the Ohio Supreme Court indicated on Tuesday that it would not rule before the state’s May 3 primaries on a challenge to a map that could give Republicans as many as 13 of the state’s 15 House seats. 

Florida Man strikes again: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) also made good on his promise to veto a new congressional map approved by state lawmakers that would have likely given Republicans 18 seats and Democrats 10 seats. That veto was accompanied by a call for a special legislative session in mid-April to craft new maps. 

It’s unclear how things will pan out in Florida. But the ruling in Maryland and Supreme Court case in Ohio certainly complicate things for Democrats, who are already facing strong headwinds in their bid to maintain control of the House this year. The Cook Political Report now expects Democrats to net one or two seats from redistricting. The election handicapper previously predicted the party could gain four or five. 

That change only increases the GOP’s chances of winning back its House majority in November. Republicans need to net just five seats this year to recapture control of the lower chamber – and they already have history and the political environment on their side. 

COUNTDOWN

223 days until the 2022 midterm elections

ON THE TRAIL 

Republicans are turning to a familiar issue in their bid to recapture control of Congress: the U.S. southern border. 

The Republican National Committee (RNC) is out with the first video in a new series highlighting “the horrors of Joe Biden’s open border crisis.” Check that out here.  

Meanwhile, the Senate Republican Conference is circulating two memos to its members arguing that the U.S. “is facing the worst border crisis in our history” and that the Biden administration is “actively eliminating every tool America has to secure our Southern border.” That includes discontinuing Title 42, the Trump-era immigration policy that directs the government to expel migrants during the pandemic. 

The line of attack isn’t a new one for Republicans. But it’s just one more tool in their arsenal as they look to make the 2022 midterms a referendum on the Biden administration and full Democratic control of Congress. The topic also came up repeatedly last week at House Republicans’ annual retreat in Florida, where GOP members sought to pin lax border enforcement on the rise in drug overdose deaths in the U.S. 

AD WATCH

The main super PAC supporting House Democrats is reserving more than $100 million in TV and digital advertising for the final months of the 2022 midterm cycle.   

House Majority PAC (HMP) said it’s placing more than $86 million in television reservations ahead of the fall, as well as another $15.8 million in digital reservations, bringing the total to $101.8 million. For context, the group’s initial reservations in 2020 totaled $51 million. In 2018, the initial reservations came to $43 million. 

What’s the point? The reservations prioritize expensive media markets. Placing them early as opposed to later in the year will allow HMP to lock in lower rates, effectively giving them more bang for their buck.  

But there’s more to it.   

The ad reservations – which encompass 50 media markets – signal Democrats are competing in an expanded battlefield, even as redistricting has left fewer than 40 traditionally competitive districts. 

Speaking of expanding the battlefield… 

The National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee (NRCC) is adding more seats to its target list. 

The latest additions include California’s 13th and 26th districts, Colorado’s 8th district, Florida’s 14th and 22nd districts, Illinois’ 11th district, Michigan’s 10th district, Montana’s first district, North Carolina’s sixth, 13th and 14th districts, New Mexico’s first district, Ohio’s 9th district, Texas’ 38th district, Nevada’s first district, and Oregon’s sixth district. Nine of the seats are open. 

The updated list, which is now made up of 72 seats, comes after a number of states went through the decennial redistricting process. Florida’s 14th and 22nd districts do not have final maps yet, so the committee said it relied on the old lines. 

“We know this is going to be a dog fight, but we do have the message, the candidates, and the resources that we’re going to need to win in November, NRCC Chair Tom Emmer said in a call with reporters on Wednesday.  

POLL WATCH

Things are looking worse for Rep. Mo Brooks’s (R-Ala.) prospects in the Alabama GOP Senate primary. A new poll from The Hill and Emerson College out Wednesday shows former Army Pilot Mike Durant leading the pack for the Republican nomination at 33 percent. Katie Britt, a former aide to retiring Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), comes in second place with 23 percent. Brooks, whom former President Donald Trump endorsed last year before pulling his support last week, is well behind both Durant and Britt, scoring only 12 percent support. 

Trump hasn’t issued a new endorsement in the race yet, but there’s evidence to suggest that his support would make a difference. Fifty-two percent of Republican primary voters surveyed said they would be more likely to back a candidate if he or she had the former president’s blessing. Tal has more on The Hill/Emerson College poll here. 

ICYMI

Republicans are proactively trying to ward off complacency within their ranks, even as they become increasingly confident that they’ll win back control of the House and Senate this year.  “Look, it’s extremely important to run through the tape,” Matt Gorman, a GOP strategist and former NRCC staffer, said. “As we saw in 2016, things can change quickly. I think we’re extremely well-positioned, we have great recruits, we’re raising the money we need to, the issues are on our side, but we can’t let our foot off the gas.” You can check out the full story from Max Greenwood here. 

THIS WEEK’S OP-EDS

• Ron DeSantis is winning the culture wars

• Pennsylvania’s Senate race is a bellwether for Democrats in 2022 and beyond

That’s it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill’s Campaign page for the latest news and coverage. See you next week.