GOP chances hiked by nominee’s exit

The 11th hour exit of the Republican nominee in a closely watched New York House race has boosted the GOP’s chances of holding the seat, while also raising questions about the Republican leaders’ ability to harness the conservative fervor mounting in the Republican base.

Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman has said he will caucus with Republicans if he wins the special election next Tuesday, maintaining a vote against President Barack Obama’s healthcare plan and the rest of the Democratic agenda.

{mosads}But Republican leaders had to scramble Saturday to shift their support from Dede Scozzafava, the far more liberal nominee chosen by a GOP committee as the candidate to replace Republican Rep. John McHugh in the upstate New York district.

“They’ve got egg all over their face. They bollixed this,” said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato. “They didn’t understand the anger from their base and her positions.”

The National Republican Congressional Committee put nearly $900,000 into the race, though most of that was on attacks against the Democrat in the race, Bill Owens. The NRCC had created a web-only advertisement attacking Hoffman’s positions on civil unions, his position on government bailouts, and his residency. By Saturday afternoon, the ad had been removed from YouTube.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was quick to weigh in Saturday, saying in a statement that Scozzafava was brought down by “eight extreme right wing groups [that] spent more than $1 million to defeat the moderate Republican.

“Today’s developments in NY-23 should send a chilling message to the few remaining moderate Republicans,” DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen said. “The extreme right wing of the Republican Party is in control and will not tolerate differing opinions.”

But the Republican House leadership abruptly changed course Saturday after Scozzafava’s announcement. NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions (R-Texas), who had tangled with fellow conservatives for supporting her, Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va.) and Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) released a joint statement endorsing Hoffman and welcoming him to the caucus should he win Tuesday.

All three previously donated to Scozzafava’s campaign, but they came under fire from their party’s own conservative base for pushing other Republicans to do the same.

And to conservatives like RedState.com’s Erick Erickson, the last-minute conversion was too little, too late.

“Having gone all in for Scozzafava, hoodwinked good men into soiling their reputations by standing behind this leftist, and wasting valuable resources on a victory he will not see,” Erikson wrote. “Only now is Sessions tacitly declaring defeat.”

NRCC officials maintain that they had little choice but to support a candidate selected by local party leaders. And they maintain that the anger in the Republican base will still benefit GOP candidates next year.

Hoffman had stolen away the support of the Republican Party’s most popular conservatives, such as former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) and former House leader Dick Armey, head of the group that organized the Tea Party march on Washington last month.

Scozzafava, whose liberal stances included support for gay marriage, won the support of a few key Republicans – most notably former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.). It seemed wise to many to support a moderate candidate in a district that went for Obama by five points last year. At least one initial congressional supporter — Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) — even recanted his endorsement this week, citing Scozzafava’s low odds of winning.

The two most recent polls predicted Scozzafava would trail both Hoffman and Democratic opponent Bill Owens by double digits. While some of her strongest supporters urged her this week to continue fighting despite those numbers, Scozzafava ultimately decided to exit the race early.

The sudden change has thrust the race into the national spotlight with two other closely watched off-year elections – races for governor in New Jersey and Virginia – often cast as a referendum on Obama.

But Sabato cautioned against the idea that this was the beginning of a Tea Party takeover of the Republican Party. In a reminder that all politics are local, he said voters in the district were resentful of Scozzafava’s selection by a small party committee.

{mosads}”This was a tiny little party committee meeting in a backroom,” Sabato said. “People don’t like that.”

With Owens and Hoffman in a dead heat, much of the speculation centered on which way Scozzafava’s voters would go. Polls showed the two men essentially tied with Scozzafava in the race, trailing each by double digits.

Scozzafava pointedly chose not to endorse either of her two opponents. Rather, she emphasized that her prospective voters should “transfer their support as they see fit to do.”

Hoffman would seem to have the advantage. The conventional wisdom says the Republican nominee’s supporters will be siding with the conservative. And the sudden boost of publicity could give Hoffman momentum going into the last three days of the campaign.

But Scozzafava’s name will remain on the ballot. And polling analyst Nate Silver of the FiveThirtyEight blog noted that crosstabs of the Siena poll widely credited with Scozzafava’s exit show her supporters don’t like Hoffman or Owens. It also shows her supporters have a favorable view of Obama by 64-31.

This story was updated at 8:40 p.m.