The big questions for the fourth quarter

Candidates all over the country are closing the books on their 2009
fundraising efforts, and with most of the players in place, it’s all
about who’s raising what. Fourth-quarter reports, which are due by the
end of the month, are starting to trickle in.

The subplots are many, and money questions remain for plenty of GOP challengers who hope they are part of a wave election.

{mosads}Here are some key questions that will be answered by the month’s end:

Can tea party candidates raise money?

There
is plenty of enthusiasm about the so-called “tea party” candidates, and
they are challenging establishment Republicans in plenty of big-time
races. But it’s so far unclear whether they can raise the kind of money
they’ll need to make themselves into viable candidates. If a few of
these candidates can show the rest how it’s done, it could start to be
a real problem for Republicans, rather than a hypothetical one.

Can Trey Grayson and Lee Fisher turn it around?

The
two most disappointing third quarters on the Senate map came from
Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) and Ohio Lt. Gov. Lee
Fisher (D). Neither raised even $650,000, and both were severely
outdone by other candidates. In the fourth quarter, both have a chance
to assert that the third quarter was a fluke. Grayson primary opponent
Rand Paul, who tracks his fundraising on his website, will not turn in
another $1 million quarter, so the door is open to Grayson. Fisher is
now more than two quarters removed from his own $1 million effort in
early 2009, and he could use another one to silence the critics. He
benefits from what turned out to be a pretty innocuous primary
challenge from Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, but former Rep. Rob
Portman (R-Ohio) is raising big general-election bucks.

Does Sue Lowden or Danny Tarkanian (or someone else) emerge?

We
get it. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) is in trouble. Now
the first person to tell us who will beat the $25 Million Man gets a
prize. No Republican has hit the $350,000 mark through September, and
the race is a jumbled mess. During the fourth quarter, the attention
began to shift to former state party Chairwoman Sue Lowden and
businessman Danny Tarkanian, but the onus will be on them to back that
up with good fundraising. A million-dollar quarter would be ideal, but
a significantly smaller sum would likely still make them into bona fide
front-runners. If they don’t assert themselves early, other candidates
(John Chachas, Sharron Angle, Mark Amodei) will creep into the media
narrative more and more.
Can Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.) scare away Beau Biden?

Here
we are, a whole quarter later, and Beau Biden still isn’t a Senate
candidate. The question is: Is he scared? Castle’s $57,000 third
quarter (all raised as a House candidate) didn’t scare anybody. But the
former governor has a second chance with his fourth-quarter report. If
he turns in a really big number, it will put Biden on the spot. The
current state attorney general probably won’t have trouble raising
money either way — we hear his dad knows some people — but running
against a well-funded Castle is a lot less attractive than running
against a meagerly funded Castle.

Can David Hoffman and Patrick Hughes fund a last-minute push?

Rep.
Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) and state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) both have
vulnerabilities in the Illinois Senate primary, which is less than
three weeks away. But if Patrick Hughes (R) and/or David Hoffman (D)
are really going to make a race of it, they need money. Neither raised
even $400,000 in the third quarter, and Hoffman set an ambitious goal
of $2 million in the fourth quarter. Both can self-fund to some extent,
but Illinois is expensive. Keep an eye on Hoffman; Giannoulias’s
numbers are worse than Kirk’s, and Kirk seems pretty confident right
now.

Also worth watching on Feb. 2, the nation’s first
primary, is the race for Kirk’s House seat, where state Rep. Beth
Coulson (R) and repeat nominee Dan Seals (D) are fighting off
better-funded challengers. In Rep. Bill Foster’s (D-Ill.) district,
state Sen. Randy Hultgren’s (R) number in his primary against Ethan
Hastert will be watched closely.

Do fourth-quarter numbers point to any retirements?

As
a retirement indicator, fundraising numbers are overrated. But they can
provide some subtle hints, especially in certain cases. Rep. Alan
Mollohan (D-W.Va.), for instance, had better get his financial house in
order if he is going to be taken seriously. And Rep. John Murtha
(D-Pa.) was forced to answer retirement questions after his office
asked the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) how it
could use campaign funds when he’s out of office. Fundraising in these
cases may be more of a factor in a potential retirement, rather than a
symptom. Others to watch are Reps. Ike Skelton (D-Mo.), Mike Ross
(D-Ark.) and Marion Berry (D-Ark.). Another Arkansan, Rep. Vic Snyder
(D), doesn’t raise money in the off-year, so he’ll fall even further
behind former U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin (R).

How do new GOP recruits pan out?

Sam
Caligiuri, Jackie Walorski, Jim Gibbons, Mike Grimm, John Loughlin, Dan
Debicella, Joe Heck, Scott Bruun, Mick Mulvaney, Robert Hurt: These are
names national Republicans would like you to know after this month.
It’s one thing to talk up a new recruit to the media; it’s another for
him or her to pan out. The fourth quarter was a big time for Republican
recruitment, and it will be the first quarter of fundraising in many
districts the party hopes to put in play this year. The GOP recruiting
surge will endure its first major test on this count.