Giannoulias, Quinn at risk in Illinois primary

Illinois voters head to the polls Tuesday for the nation’s first primary of 2010.

While much of the action lies ahead in these races, Tuesday’s outcome will determine who will be on the ballot in November, and who has the momentum.

Here’s what you need to know to follow the contests:

Senate
 
State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias’s campaign is confident heading into Tuesday despite some late troubles, and he is the odds-on favorite. If he struggles, it will likely be at the hands of former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman, who has harnessed some momentum but appears to be stunted by the presence of Chicago Urban League President Cheryle Robinson Jackson in the race.

Hoffman has raised more than $2 million for the race, but recent polling shows him trailing by double digits. All of that polling, however, was conducted before the Giannoulias family bank was forced to enter into a consent decree with federal and state regulators to avoid collapse. The bank has also caused problems for Giannoulias because it provided loans to an organized crime figure and convicted political fixer Tony Rezko.

 Should Giannoulias hang on for the win, observers will look closely at his margin of victory for hints as to how strong a general-election candidate he will be against the presumptive GOP nominee, Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.). The good news for Giannoulias is that even if he doesn’t come out of Tuesday looking strong, he has nine months to put together the kind of campaign Democrats hoped for from the young former basketball buddy of President Barack Obama. The bad news is, he’s got plenty more of what’s happened in the past week ahead of him.

Kirk is a heavy favorite on the GOP side, despite some early questions about just how much the GOP base would support someone with a centrist record in the House. Developer Patrick Hughes hasn’t been able to put together the kind of funds needed to give Kirk a real scare, and a crowded field should benefit the congressman on Tuesday. Kirk doesn’t appear terribly concerned with the primary, as he had $3.2 million in unspent campaign funds in the bank as of Jan. 13.

Governor

Gov. Pat Quinn (D) could well be the victim of a primary challenge Tuesday, with state Comptroller Dan Hynes surging toward the end of the race and the two neck-and-neck in the most recent polling. Hynes has used some brutal campaign advertising to call into question Quinn’s competency for the job, which he was not elected to. And that’s to say nothing of the fact that Quinn was Rod Blagojevich’s lieutenant governor.

Republicans are hoping for the best when it comes to their primary, but it’s not clear what “the best” is. Former state party Chairman Andy McKenna brings plenty of personal funds to the race, but he’s involved in a jumbled field of Republican hopefuls. Others who could factor into the primary Tuesday include former state Attorney General Jim Ryan, state Sen. Kirk Dillard and state Sen. Bill Brady. Businessman Adam Andrzejewski and political consultant Dan Proft are also in the mix and could draw significant votes.
 

10th district
 
Kirk’s seat is set to be one of the most expensive battles in the country, with both Democrats and Republicans scrapping over the right to face off in the general election.

 Republicans have come around to the candidacy of businessman Bob Dold, who is chasing after state Rep. Beth Coulson. Another businessman, Dick Green, has self-funded heavily and could also be a player. Coulson has a centrist record that could play well in the general election, but might be a liability on Tuesday. Keep an eye on Dold.

 Two Democrats have waged a pitched battle for their nomination. Dan Seals, the 2006 and 2008 nominee against Kirk, has been significantly outraised by state Rep. Julie Hamos, but he began the race with a stark advantage in name recognition. Whoever emerges, Democrats have a genuine pickup opportunity in an otherwise difficult year.

 
14th district
 
The battle to face Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.) featured a heavy dose of the past for two reasons: One of the Republicans vying for the nomination is the son of Foster’s predecessor, and the primary harkened back to a brutal special-election contest that handed the seat to Foster in the first place.

 Attorney Ethan Hastert, the son of former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.), could struggle with his ties to the GOP establishment, but state Sen. Randy Hultgren hasn’t raised great sums of money as an alternative. At the same time, Hultgren has landed major newspaper endorsements. A Hultgren win here would be a huge rebuke to the Republican establishment.

 
11th district

Iraq veteran Adam Kinzinger hasn’t blown it out of the water, but he’s the only Republican running to face Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D-Ill.) who has raised any significant money. Kinzinger, 31, has been endorsed by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), and the party holds out hope he can reclaim a seat it lost in the 2008 election.
 

13th district
 
Businessman Scott Harper (D) nearly came out of nowhere to upset Rep. Judy Biggert (R-Ill.) in 2008, and he’s a solid bet to get a second chance. If Democrats can recover some of the environmental advantage they’ve lost, this could be a pickup opportunity in November.
 

8th district
 
Rep. Melissa Bean (D-Ill.) has been the forgotten woman this cycle, as frustrated Republicans have failed to field a top-tier candidate to face the oft-targeted incumbent. Businessman Dirk Beveridge and Long Grove Village President Maria Rodriguez have put together the most money, but neither has left a field of four other candidates in the dust. Tuesday’s race should come down to the two of them.