Northup weighs repeat bid after Roberts responds to call of duty

Former Rep. Anne Northup (R-Ky.) is seriously considering another run for Congress in light of Wednesday’s news that current GOP candidate Erwin Roberts has been called to active duty in the Army Reserves and could fold up his campaign.

The news from Roberts, which comes less than two weeks before the state’s filing deadline, could give Northup a chance to resurrect her political career following two failed campaigns in the last 14 months.

Longtime Northup adviser Ted Jackson said just hours after Roberts’s announcement that the five-term congresswoman is mulling her third campaign in two years. After losing her reelection bid to Democrat John Yarmuth in 2006, she lost a primary to then-Gov. Ernie Fletcher in May 2007.

Roberts has not yet canceled his campaign in case his situation with the Reserves changes. But with the filing deadline set for Jan. 29, Republicans will feel pressure to get another candidate on the ballot in what is supposed to be one of their top-targeted districts.

Whether Roberts’s situation is resolved by then, it appears he might be pushed aside.

Sources said nobody other than Northup could pack the kind of name recognition and fundraising ability at such a late date. Northup is also personally wealthy and could potentially help fund her campaign, which is a plus with the cash-poor National Republican Congressional Committee.

Jackson said Northup would not sign up for the race as an alternative in case Roberts cannot run. She has supported Roberts’s candidacy and held a fundraiser for him.

“She’s not going to just be a stalking horse of some kind, out there in case something happens with him,” Jackson said. “If she files, she’s in.”

Roberts announced in a release Wednesday morning that he had been called to active duty for 12 months in the Army Reserves Judge Advocate General’s Corps, also known as JAG.

A lawyer and former director of the state’s Office of Homeland Security, he is a captain in the 139th Legal Support Organization, which is set to be mobilized in March or April.

“This is certainly a difficult situation, but one I hope will be resolved soon,” Roberts said. “As with all Reservists who receive notice of a call to active duty, my main focus is on my family and preparing to serve.”

Northup’s loss in 2006 was one of the most surprising in the country, and it was the first real sign of the Democratic wave on Election Day. Northup had repeatedly turned away tough challenges in a Louisville district that leans slightly Democratic in presidential elections.

Northup lost 51-48 in a race in which she tried to use Yarmuth’s liberal-leaning newspaper columns against him.
Many were writing her political obituary after she lost to the scandal-plagued Fletcher, but sources close to her say  they would not be surprised to see her run again.

The current circumstances give her an opportunity to look like a savior for her party while also getting a chance to win back her old seat, they say.

Jackson said that Northup’s return would give Yarmuth his toughest test.

“This is a nightmare scenario for John Yarmuth,” Jackson said. “She is absolutely the last person he wanted to be running against if she makes this race.”

Local Republicans struggled to think of other candidates besides Northup.

Jefferson County Republican Party Chairman Jack Richardson IV said many who considered the congressional race have since opted to run for other offices or have other obligations.

Richardson noted that Dan Seum, who weighed a bid, is also a member of the state Senate leadership and is important to his party as it tries to keep its majority there. Businessman Chris Thieneman had also thought about running before deciding to run for Louisville Metro Council instead.

One name still mentioned is that of former Lt. Gov. Steve Pence (R), who did not run for reelection with Fletcher last year. Pence backed Northup in the governor’s race.

“It is difficult with the filing deadline about two weeks away,” Richardson said. “It’s a very short period of time for somebody to think about a race that will cost some money — particularly a congressional race — and to gear up for it. We just don’t have any answers right now.”

Roberts has yet to turn in a strong fundraising report and was seen by Democrats as vulnerable to attacks because he was part of Fletcher’s Cabinet. Fletcher went on to lose the gubernatorial race by 18 points.

But Yarmuth’s office signaled he would be glad to run against Northup again.

“This is a woman who said during the gubernatorial campaign that she didn’t want to be in Congress anymore,” said Yarmuth spokesman Stuart Perelmuter. “This is what happens with a professional politician: They keep running.”