Energized by the prospect of taking back the presidency, New York Democrats expect to pick away at the Empire State’s few remaining Republican House seats in 2008.
Democrats now control 23 of the 29 seats, and have set their sights on picking up at least two more. The party’s optimism stems from the boost the candidates would receive from a Democrat winning the White House, the retirement of 10-term GOP Rep. James Walsh and the Republicans’ struggle to field challengers against two Democratic freshmen.
{mosads}“Democrats are thinking, ‘We’ve been out of power for eight years. It’s our turn again,” said Doug Muzzio, a political scientist at the City University of New York. “That makes the job of Republicans at the local level — congressional, state-wide and legislative — a little bit harder.”
More than 1.7 million people voted in New York’s Democratic primary last week, a turnout nearly three times as large as those voting in the Republican contest. That bodes well for Democrats, who were targeting the seats of Walsh and Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) in upstate New York long before Super Tuesday. Walsh and Kuhl both had won reelection by 2 percent margins in 2006.
“New Yorkers are eager for change,” said Carrie James, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, repeating a popular theme invoked by Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.), one of the party’s two candidates for president.
Ken Spain, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, argued that Kuhl and other incumbents are in good position to win reelection and that a Republican will eventually emerge to win Walsh’s seat.
Walsh and Kuhl’s 2006 Democratic opponents are running again. Both candidates, former congressional aide Dan Maffei in Walsh’s district and retired Navy Commander Eric Massa in Kuhl’s, are part of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Red-to-Blue program of challengers who will receive financial support.
Maffei has already raised $518,530, while the GOP hasn’t settled on a candidate. Massa has netted $620,874 compared to Kuhl’s $315,107.
Kuhl also has yet to publicly signal if he intends to run.
About a half-dozen Republicans are considering running to replace Walsh, including New York State Fair Director Peter Cappuccilli. Local Republicans had hoped that prosecutor William Fitzpatrick would run, but he declined.
Both Maffei and Massa are campaigning outside their districts in an effort to weaken Rep. Tom Reynolds (R), who also hails from the Rochester-Syracuse area and will face whomever emerges from a competitive Democratic primary.
“We have three very energized races in the same media market,” Massa said. “Republicans know this is not good. We are certainly members of a team.”
Reynolds will likely face a challenge from Iraq war veteran Jon Powers or Jack Davis, a self-funded candidate who lost to Reynolds by 4 points in 2006.
Powers, like Massa, has criticized the Bush administration for the war and has appeared at events with both Massa and Maffei. Massa, meanwhile, said he shares Davis’s concern over free-trade policies.
“The economy’s in worse shape, and I’ve been talking for five years about the hammering we’ve been taking from the administration’s and the Congress’s position on free trade,” said Davis, who will likely decide on a run in March.
The Democrats’ challengers in all three races could get a 3- or 4-point boost from their party’s presidential candidate, something that would be enough to put them over the top, Muzzio said. But that boost could depend on whether their party’s nominee is New York’s own Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton or Obama.
“The immediate response would be that Clinton is a New York senator, and therefore the turnout in New York would be greater if she were the nominee,” Muzzio said. “But I don’t know. I can’t tell with the enthusiasm that Obama is generating. It’s a crapshoot to figure out.”
Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) is expected to have the closest race among freshman incumbents. Gillibrand was elected in 2006 after allegations of spousal abuse in New York newspapers about then-Rep. John Sweeney (R).
An anti-war Democrat running in a district that has been conservative, Gillibrand now faces a challenge from former New York Secretary of State Sandy Treadwell, who is expected to make immigration and the economy a big part of the campaign.
Spain, the NRCC’s spokesman, said that Gillibrand’s failure to support measures to stop illegal immigration and excessive federal spending “will provide Republicans with a very good opportunity to play offense.”
Republicans have yet to rally behind candidates to take on freshman Reps. John Hall and Michael Arcuri, and they trail in fundraising in all three races. Gillibrand has raised $2.56 million compared with Treadwell’s $1.24. Hall and Acuri have raised $1.3 million and $760,205, respectively.
“Treadwell is the only one who is a top-tier challenger, given his previous office and personal wealth,” Muzzio said. “[Recruiting] has been a general weakness for Republicans.”