Donald Trump has been the biggest factor in the race for the House.
Republicans have been dogged by questions about Trump’s behavior all year, while Democrats tried to tie their opponents in the chamber to the controversial GOP presidential nominee.
{mosads}Democrats are expected to fall short of the necessary 30 pickups to win the House majority. But they could make significant inroads, eliminating the 13-seat gain made by Republicans in the 2014 midterm elections.
Here are the five main themes to watch as the tallies roll in tonight.
Can the House GOP keep losses to single digits?
This would be seen as a significant victory for Republicans, since House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) was predicting her party would net at least 25 seats.
FBI Director James Comey’s announcement last month of a review of newly discovered emails possibly related to Hillary Clinton sapped momentum for Democrats, leading to tightened polls. Comey’s Sunday announcement that the latest investigation uncovered no signs of criminal wrongdoing may have come too late to undo the earlier damage.
“The problem is you spend all this time correctly tying Trump’s unpopular policies to House Republicans in moderate districts, it’s working, [and] then you have … this Comey letter, which makes it less resonant,” Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.), chairman of the party’s messaging arm, said Monday by phone. “Then 48 hours before the election, you know, he says nevermind. It’s hard to make up that week.”
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a division of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said Monday it expects Democrats to gain 13 seats — far shy of the 30 the party would need to flip the chamber.
While the Cook Political Report predicts Democrats will pick up between five and 20 seats, it moved seven races on Monday in favor of Republicans — a shift largely attributed to Comey.
A Democrat with ties to the party’s campaign arm said Monday that several early races will be bellwethers in gauging how well the Democrats will do in the House.
If Democratic challengers are able to pick off GOP Reps. Bruce Poliquin (Maine), Frank Guinta (N.H.) and Carlos Curbelo (Fla.), it’s “a good night for the party,” the source said. If they can win seats held by GOP Reps. Lee Zeldin (N.Y.) and Barbara Comstock (Va.), it’s “a very good night.”
And if they fail to unseat Rep. David Jolly in Florida, then “it’s a brutal night for Democrats.”
Will longtime GOP incumbents survive?
A handful of veteran Republicans are scrambling to keep their seats on Tuesday.
Reps. John Mica (Fla.), Scott Garrett (N.J.) and Darrell Issa (Calif.) — who have more than 50 years of Capitol Hill experience between them — are all in “toss-up” races, according to Cook, while the Crystal Ball analysts put all three in the more-threatened category of “leans Democrat.”
The three lawmakers were not considered top targets for the Democrats early in the cycle. But they all represent affluent, suburban districts where Trump has alienated many voters, particularly college-educated women.
Ousting Issa would be a particular triumph for Democrats.
The eight-term San Diegan took the helm of the Oversight Committee after Republicans won control of the House in 2010, and he relished the role of attacking the Obama administration on issues as varied as the 2012 Benghazi attacks, the Justice Department’s “Fast and Furious” gun-walking operation and charges that the IRS launched politically motivated audits into conservative groups.
Israel said the results come down to one central factor: “It’s all turnout,” he said.
Can targeted suburban Republicans outperform Trump?
Swing-state suburbs will decide how good the night is for Democrats or the GOP.
Once it became clear Trump would be the Republican nominee, Democrats began targeting districts held by Republicans representing well-educated suburban areas.
Watch returns for Reps. Kevin Yoder (Kan.), who represents Kansas City suburbs, or Erik Paulsen (Minn.), who represents a district near Minneapolis, for signs of trouble.
Reps. Bob Dold (Ill.), Mike Coffman (Colo.), Comstock and Curbelo were seen as vulnerable when the race began.
All have tried varying ways to distance themselves from Trump. If they succeed, they are likely to survive to another term.
How many seats can Republicans flip playing defense?
The GOP is at its largest majority since the Great Depression, which makes it tougher to win more seats.
Still, the party sees a few opportunities.
Two open Democratic-held districts in Florida, vacated by retiring Rep. Gwen Graham and Senate candidate Rep. Patrick Murphy, are the most likely to fall into the GOP column.
Freshman Rep. Brad Ashford (Neb.), the first Democrat to represent his Omaha-area district in more than two decades, will have to tough out the GOP-leaning headwinds in his traditionally red state.
And in Minnesota, Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan is in a competitive race against Republican Stewart Mills, in part because Trump plays well in the largely rural district.
Rep. Ami Bera (D-Calif.), who narrowly won reelection in 2014 in overtime, also has a target on his back but is favored to prevail again this year.
How many women and minorities will win seats?
Women currently represent 19 percent of the House, with 65 Democrats and 23 Republicans.
About half of candidates in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Red to Blue” program are women, many of whom are trying to unseat male GOP incumbents in competitive races.
A number of female candidates, such as Pramila Jayapal in Washington and Val Demings in Florida, are expected to win in safe, open Democratic seats.
Republicans, meanwhile, face the possibility of losing some of the strides in diversity they made during the 2014 midterms.
The only two African-American members of the House GOP conference, Reps. Will Hurd (Texas) and Mia Love (Utah), are both in competitive races. Florida’s Curbelo, who is Hispanic, and Virginia’s Comstock are also highly vulnerable.
Republicans had relatively few openings for candidate recruitment this cycle because they’re mostly defending their historic majority.
But a handful of female candidates are in competitive races, such as Claudia Tenney, who’s favored to win New York’s 22nd District and replace retiring Rep. Richard Hanna (R).