Democrats fear electoral bloodbath in North Carolina

House Democrats fighting to flip control of the chamber next year will first have to overcome an expected bloodbath in North Carolina, where Republicans have secured a new map all but guaranteeing a red wave in November.

GOP lawmakers in the state legislature approved a redistricting plan in October that sets the stage for Republicans to pick up at least three seats, and maybe four, in the 14-member delegation — a tally that, by itself, would double the GOP’s slender House majority on Capitol Hill.

The new lines have squeezed more Democratic voters into some blue districts, while carving up several others so that Democratic voters are vastly outnumbered by Republicans — and the incumbent lawmakers have virtually no chance of holding their current seats. 

The impact has been swift and striking: In recent weeks, three Democratic lawmakers — Reps. Kathy Manning, Jeff Jackson and Wiley Nickel — have all announced their retirements at the end of the current term, while a fourth Democrat, Rep. Don Davis, is facing even tougher headwinds in his toss-up run for reelection.

Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.) participates in a photo op for newly elected House members for the 118th session of Congress outside the Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, November 15, 2022. (Greg Nash)

The developments have complicated the math problem facing Democratic leaders as they race to win back control of the House in November, even as President Biden’s approval rating is well underwater and the GOP’s focus on inflation and border security has proven effective.

Democrats have decried the political gerrymandering that’s generated the North Carolina shake-up, but the retiring lawmakers say they were given no choice. 

“There is no question that the way they have drawn these maps, they’ve made it impossible for three of us Democrats to win our seats again,” Manning said. 

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Manning won her Greensboro-based district by a comfortable 9-point margin in 2022, but the new lines lump much of Greensboro with 10 rural counties to the west, all the way to the Tennessee border. The result, she said, is an insurmountable 26-point swing.

“I have looked at the map every which way to see if there is any way possible to win, and you cannot overcome a 16-point advantage,” she said. 

For North Carolina, a lopsided delegation would hardly be a reflection of the state’s politics. The Tar Heel State is a true battleground, featuring almost even numbers of registered Democrats (43 percent) and Republicans (41 percent). And that split is reflected in the current delegation: Of 14 House seats, seven are currently held by Republicans, and seven by Democrats. 

That symmetry had been secured by the Democratic majority of the state Supreme Court heading into the 2022 elections, when the justices struck down a map drawn by GOP state legislators, which heavily favored Republicans. 

Since then, Republicans have won control of the state Supreme Court. And in a rare move this year, the new GOP majority revisited the earlier case and reversed the previous verdict, empowering Republican legislators to adopt a voter ID law and put the new map into effect for 2024.

Supporters of that decision hailed it as a commonsense verdict ensuring that the voices of voters were reflected through their elected state legislators. 

North Carolina House Speaker Tim Moore (R) said the court “ensured that our constitution and the will of the people of North Carolina are honored.” And Phil Berger (R), the state Senate leader, accused the previous court of subverting democracy for specific policy ends. 

“For years plaintiffs and activist courts have manipulated our constitution to achieve policy outcomes that could not be won at the ballot box,” Berger said at the time. “Today’s rulings affirm that our constitution cannot be exploited to fit the political whims of left-wing Democrats.”

Opponents of North Carolina’s redistricting — including civil rights groups, voting rights advocates and Democrats — see something much more sinister, accusing Republicans of abusing their powers to silence voters. 

“The outcomes of all of these elections are basically being decided in advance by the state Legislature that drew the map,” said Jackson, who is now running for state attorney general.

“I don’t know if voters fully appreciate yet the amount of power that’s been taken out of their hands, and the extent to which all of these elections have been decided in advance essentially for the rest of the decade.” 

Manning offered a similar critique, accusing Republicans of playing naked power politics. 

“The thing that’s so shameful is that the court of its own will pulled back the case that they had decided in the last term — same facts, same law — and decided, ‘Oh, we were wrong. Political gerrymandering is OK in North Carolina,’” she said. “I mean it’s obvious, the only thing that changed was the political composition, the political parties, of the justices.”

Rep. Kathy Manning, D-N.C., speaks during a news conference at the Capitol in Washington, Tuesday, July 19, 2022. (AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib)

Manning noted that North Carolina’s redistricting effort extended far beyond the state. The battle for the majority of the state Supreme Court attracted the attention — and millions of dollars — from interest groups across the country last year. And it was also on the radar of GOP leaders on Capitol Hill. 

“The only time I’ve ever talked to [former Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.)], I was asking him for something that I wanted to participate in, and he looked at me and he said, ‘I need three seats in North Carolina.’ Couldn’t have been more clear,” Manning said, referring to the former Speaker. “And he won’t get it, because he’s leaving. But that’s what the resulting gerrymandering is going to give them: Three seats in North Carolina where, if the maps were fairly drawn, we’d have seven and seven.”

The redistricting has triggered a series of federal lawsuits challenging the legality of the new lines, the most recent of which was filed Tuesday by the NAACP and Common Cause, who accuse state Republicans of diluting the voice of Black voters. But those cases are not expected to be resolved in time to impact the current cycle. 

The overall effect on the 2024 election outcome, of course, remains to be seen. Republicans currently hold a razor-thin, three-seat advantage in the House, and the chamber is up for grabs at the polls. The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, lists 74 seats that are contested to some degree, 25 of them “toss-up” districts representing the most vulnerable lawmakers. Fifteen of those seats are currently held by Republicans, and 10 by Democrats. 

Given those numbers, many Democrats like their odds of flipping control of the House, saying the party will compensate for the expected losses in North Carolina with gains in states including California, New York and even Alabama. 

“We can still pick up seats in other states,” said Rep. Deborah Ross (D-N.C.), whose district was made more safely Democratic by the GOP redistricting. “If we win these court cases, and I think we should, we would see the benefits of them in 2026. But I still believe the House has plenty of pickup opportunities in 2024.”

Manning, for one, said she would “absolutely” run again if the federal courts scrap the new map heading into the 2026 cycle. 

In the meantime, those who were pushed out by the process are taking a few shots of their own on their way out the door.

“I don’t think there’s any ethical defense for using redistricting to advantage one party or the other,” Jackson said. “It seems like as ethically clear cut as bank robbery. The only people who can defend it are the ones who are in on it.”

Mychael Schnell contributed to this report.