Democrats cautious, but buoyed by decisive New York win

A decisive win in a special election for a House seat in New York has invigorated the Democratic Party and provided a potential playbook heading into November, when they’re hoping to seize control of the lower chamber.

But even as Democrats were exuberant over Rep. Tom Suozzi’s victory on Long Island, many were also sounding a note of caution, warning that the circumstances surrounding the contest — a special election pitting a well-recognized Democrat against a little known Republican — make it an unusual case, and one that shouldn’t lead Democrats to think that immigration is not an issue or that they can glide to easy victory in November’s general elections. 

“Tom Suozzi is a strong candidate. He’s a known commodity in that district. He’s a trusted voice. And the overwhelming support for him to come back to the House of Representatives is a reflection of his reputation,” said Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.). 

“I don’t read too much into an election now for what happens in November. I just think he was the right candidate at the right time for that particular district to have a big, big win.”

Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.) delivered a similar message, praising Suozzi’s campaign strategy while warning that specific issues resonate differently in each district.

“Every race in every district has to be run on its own merits,” Horsford said. “I don’t focus on New York for how I’m going to win in Nevada. My constituents are my constituents, and my campaign will be run on the issues that matter in my district. But it’s instructive how he approached it.”

Suozzi’s victory came in a district that President Biden had won by 8 points in 2020, but much has changed since then. Not only has inflation dogged Biden’s approval ratings, but a surge in migration has created a crisis that is no longer affecting only the border, as migrants have been relocated to a number of cities across the country, including New York. 

Republican former Rep. George Santos was able to flip the seat for the GOP in 2022, winning by almost 8 points. And heading into Tuesday’s special election to replace Santos — who was expelled from Congress in December over allegations of ethics and campaign finance violations — polls showed that Suozzi was racing neck and neck with his Republican opponent, Mazi Pilip, who had made immigration a central issue of her campaign.

Suozzi had confronted the issue head-on, acknowledging the border crisis but laying out specific policy fixes. He also went on the offensive, saying Republicans have allowed the migrant crisis to continue by walking away from a Senate border security deal, which was negotiated by members of both parties but opposed by former President Trump. 

Suozzi’s 8-point victory has given Democrats new confidence that they can take an immigration issue many feared was their greatest vulnerability and use it to their advantage — if they don’t run away from it in campaigns.

House Democrats were euphoric Wednesday morning as they celebrated Suozzi’s win during a closed-door gathering in the Capitol basement, where the cheering and applause spilled into the hallway. And many lawmakers emerged to say the contest both serves as a bellwether for November’s elections and provides Democrats with a tactical blueprint for seizing the House majority.  

“This bodes very well for the fall, it really does,” said Rep. Ann Kuster (D-N.H.), head of the New Democrat Coalition. “He ran on: Let’s fix it. And when the Republicans walked away from the deal in the Senate and couldn’t take ‘yes’ for an answer, the voters realized they’re not serious about solving … serious problems.” 

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Rep. Juan Vargas (D-Calif.) agreed, saying Democrats can take at least two lessons from Suozzi’s win: “The first one is, wow, Donald Trump is a disaster,” Vargas said. “Secondly, don’t be afraid of the issues. Lean into them. That’s what he did.”

But amid the celebration was a wariness that immigration remains a potential liability for Biden and his party. And if Democrats interpret Suozzi’s victory to mean that it’s not a powerful issue with voters, they do so at their own peril. 

“We’re still not out of the woods on the immigration issue. We can’t sit there and go, ‘See, the immigration thing is not that strong. We’re fine,’” said a former Democratic aide who maintains close connections to lawmakers on Capitol Hill. 

“The immigration issue is still big and potent. We can’t sit on our hands over it.”