Speaker Johnson, GOP face crunch time on Ukraine

The House returns to Washington on Tuesday facing heightened urgency to move more military help for Ukraine but with no formal deadline — and no clear strategy — for getting it passed.

The lower chamber is scheduled to be in session for only four days before a two-week holiday recess, and Kyiv’s supporters, including top Democrats in both chambers, are urging Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to move the additional aid before week’s end.

“We cannot go home for Passover and Easter — we must have this assistance to Ukraine,” former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said Sunday in an appearance on CNN’s “State of the Union” program.

Yet Congress is facing a Friday deadline to fund the government and prevent a partial shutdown — a process expected to dominate the week — and Johnson has given no indication he’s ready to move quickly on a foreign aid package in the short window before the break, nor has he disclosed what such legislation would look like.

Indeed, the Speaker has said he wants to focus first on funding the government and shift to a package of national security issues — including aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, as well as funding for more security at the U.S.-Mexico border — only afterward. 

“We are moving through our normal appropriations process — should be done by this Friday — after which the Speaker’s indicated he’s committed to putting this supplemental on the floor,” Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee, told “Fox News Sunday.”

That timeline would push the earliest potential action on Ukraine until April 9 — three weeks away — when the House is scheduled to return to the Capitol after the long holiday recess. In the eyes of many Democrats, Ukraine’s beleaguered forces don’t have that long to wait.

Russian troops are slowly advancing, while Ukraine is running low on resources. Ukrainian officials said an airstrike killed 20 people in Odessa, and last month Russian troops captured the key city of Avdiivka.

“The clock is ticking, and we have to get the bipartisan national security bill over the finish line before we leave town next Friday, March 22 — before we leave town,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) warned last week. 

“It’s reckless to do otherwise.”

The Democrats’ ultimatums are designed to put political pressure on House GOP leaders to consider a Senate foreign aid package, including $60 billion for Ukraine, which passed easily through the upper chamber last month by a 70-29 vote. Johnson, however, hasn’t budged, rejecting the Senate bill out of hand for lacking border provisions and vowing to send a more conservative House alternative back across the Capitol — maybe as a package, maybe in separate pieces — at some unspecified time in the future.

The issue has emerged as a huge challenge for Johnson, who’s scrambling to provide more military assistance to help Ukraine fend off Russia’s advancing forces without sparking a revolt in his own GOP conference, where the appetite for foreign aid has waned, and the wrong move could cost him his gavel.

Complicating the political math, former President Trump has opposed both Ukraine aid and tougher border provisions — the centerpieces of Johnson’s vague plan — before November’s elections, warning against lending President Biden a political victory on an issue that stands as one of his top vulnerabilities in his rematch against Trump. 

Many House conservatives have adopted Trump’s isolationist leanings, and some are pushing Johnson to scrap the idea of providing any more military aid to Ukraine — now or ever.

Johnson told reporters at the House GOP’s annual retreat in West Virginia last week that he understands the urgency of sending additional aid to Ukraine, but he has disclosed few details on how he intends to accomplish that goal — leaving lawmakers, White House aides and Ukrainian officials in the dark as they sound the alarm about Kyiv’s dwindling arsenal in its battle against Moscow.

The mystery of how Johnson plans to move Ukraine aid is deepening by the day as he gets closer to having to make a decision.

The Speaker told Politico in an interview last week that any Ukraine legislation would likely be a “stand-alone” bill and be considered under a fast-track procedure known as suspension of the rules.

By “stand-alone,” Johnson meant the assistance for Ukraine would not hitch a ride on must-pass legislation such as government funding, according to a leadership aide. But that does not necessarily mean it would be free from border provisions, which has been a key request from congressional Republicans.

The aide said the components of a bill or series of bills are still being worked through with members, and leadership has not provided any guarantees on being able to move something.

During a conversation with Senate Republicans at their retreat last week, Johnson floated tweaking the upper chamber’s foreign aid bill to make it a loan or lend-lease program rather than a grant. He also discussed including language that would allow the U.S. to use seized Russian assets to pay for the aid, similar to the REPO for Ukrainians Act sponsored by McCaul.

But by predicting that the Ukraine aid would move under suspension of the rules — which requires two-thirds support for passage, meaning buy-in from Democrats is a must — Johnson is signaling that the legislation would be bipartisan, a detail that raises more questions about the makeup of the measure.

Johnson last week suggested that border security is still part of the conversation — Republicans have demanded that any aid for Kyiv be paired with policy to address the situation at the U.S. southern border — but it remains unclear how that will attract support from Democrats.

“I believe, and the American people believe, we have to secure our own border as the top priority, and I think that is a sentiment that the vast majority of the people in the country expect and deserve. And we’re gonna continue to press for that,” Johnson told reporters Friday when asked if he was considering moving Ukraine aid without border security policy.

Lawmakers in both parties recognize the difficult situation Johnson finds himself in as he contends with a Ukraine in need, vocal Democrats calling for support for the embattled U.S. ally, a pair of discharge petitions trying to go over his head and a rowdy right flank that has threatened to force a challenge to his gavel.

“It is in everyone’s best interest not to delay. However, we are operating in a divided government with a slim majority,” Rep. Greg Murphy (R-N.C.), a proponent of Ukraine aid, told The Hill.

“Navigating government funding and other foreign aid priorities in this environment requires buy in from everyone,” he added. “I’m confident Speaker Johnson will thread this needle swiftly.”