Trump megabill on thin ice ahead of key vote

A key committee vote for the Republican package full of President Trump’s legislative priorities scheduled for Friday could be punted to next week as hardliners on the panel threaten to block the legislation.

“I haven’t given up yet. But there are concerns about having to get more information, which would potentially delay this to next week, so we’ll see,” House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) said Thursday.

The possible delay comes after a wave of hardliners on the panel — Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas), Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), and Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Ga.) — said they planned to vote against advancing the GOP’s megabill in its current form in a meeting scheduled for Friday.

The defections would be enough to stop it from moving forward, and several other hardline conservative members on the panel also said they were undecided or expressed reservations about the bill.

The Budget Committee is the next stop for the legislation — officially titled the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” — that pairs major Trump priorities like extension of tax cuts with reforms to Medicaid and food assistance programs, as well as other measures that were finalized in marathon markups in the Energy and Commerce, Agriculture, and Ways and Means committees this week.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) was aiming to pass the bill on the House floor next week, but it needs to get through the Budget Committee and House Rules Committee beforehand.

House Republicans are negotiating changes to the underlying legislation ahead of the planned floor vote next week — namely a proposed increase to the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap in exchange for changing other aspects of the bill like Medicaid reforms.

The details of those changes are expected to be negotiated through the weekend as lawmakers wait for budget projections of various proposals, according to lawmakers who met with Johnson on Thursday morning. 

Norman said he raised questions in a Thursday afternoon House GOP conference meeting about timing of work requirements and the level of SALT caps, and didn’t get any answers. As long as those questions are outstanding, he plans to vote against the measure in the Budget Committee.

“We shouldn’t have the vote” on Friday, Norman said – a message he relayed to the rest of the House GOP conference in a Thursday afternoon briefing about the contents of the bill, according to a source.

Twenty-one Republicans and 16 Democrats sit on the Budget Committee, which is where the 11 components of the party’s “big, beautiful bill” will be merged into one package. Rep. Brandon Gill (R-Texas), however, is expected to miss the vote because he is at home for the birth of his first son, meaning opposition from Roy, Norman, and Clyde is more than enough to block the measure if all Democrats are present.

“I’m a NO on advancing the budget reconciliation bill out of the Budget Committee in its current form. There are numerous issues that we must address, such as matters related to FMAP and 2A. I’m actively involved in negotiations to improve this package, and I’m hopeful that we will do so quickly in order to successfully deliver on President Trump’s agenda for the American people,” Clyde said in a statement.

Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R-Ind.) is undecided on the key committee vote, he told The Hill.

Other hard-line members of the House Freedom Caucus sit on the committee, including Reps. Josh Brecheen (R-Okla.), Andrew Clyde (R-Ga.) and Ben Cline (R-Va.). 

Cline and Rep. Glenn Grothman (R-Wis.) declined to say how they would vote.

“As a member of the House Budget Committee, I share @RepChipRoy’s concerns. Further, after a meeting with the CBO this morning, it’s clear we don’t know the true cost of this bill or whether it adheres to the Budget blueprint,” Brecheen posted on the social platform X, referring to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

“We have a duty to know the true cost of this legislation before advancing it. If we are to operate in truth, we must have true numbers—even if that means taking some more time to obtain that truth.”

Blue-state Republicas have warned that they will vote against the bill unless there is a raised SALT deduction cap — now written as $30,000 for individuals making $400,000 or more, an increase from the current law of a $10,000 cap. 

But to balance the fiscal impact of raising that cap, Johnson acknowledged there will be tweaks elsewhere: “If you do more on SALT, you have to find more in savings. So these are the dials, the metaphorical dials I’m talking about,” the Speaker said Thursday.

One of the top asks from fiscal hawks is moving up the start date for Medicaid work requirements for “able-bodied” single adults, which are not set to kick in until 2029.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) said later on Thursday that GOP leaders “absolutely” intend to speed up the implementation of Medicaid work requirements.

Thehardliners have also suggested taking a tougher stance on the “provider tax” that allows states to extract more federal Medicaid matching dollars rather than just freezing it; lowering the Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP) for the Medicaid expansion established with ObamaCare and moving up bumping up the timeline to roll back green energy tax credits.

Johnson earlier in the day had expressed optimism about the bill’s prospects.

“We are still on path to pass this bill next week, to have it on the floor,” Johnson said. “That’s always been the plan, and I don’t see anything that would impede that right now.” 

Updated at 4:35 p.m.