The Hill’s Morning Report — Expectations high for GOP this Election Day

Here’s what we think we know as Election Day dawns nationwide, based on our colleagues’ reporting: It’s going to be a good night for Republican candidates competing for House seats. How good remains to be seen. The GOP could wrest the Senate majority away from President Biden and Democrats by a single seat, although there are other plausible scenarios as millions of Americans line up to vote on Tuesday.

“Look, if we’re able to hold on, we’re going to be in incredible shape,” the president said Monday during a Democratic National Committee virtual event. “Imagine what we can do in a second term if we maintain control. I know that sounds like a very high expectation, but I think — anyway, I’m optimistic.”

In the final moments of a 96-minute Ohio rally Monday night, former President Trump endorsed a long list of Republican candidates across the country and said he plans a “very big announcement” Nov. 15 at Mar-a-Lago, a message immediately interpreted by his cheering audience as his intention to run again for president in 2024 (The Hill). 

“We want nothing to detract from the importance of tomorrow,” Trump said, aware of criticism that teasing his presidential ambitions again on the eve of the midterms might increase Democratic voter turnout and undercut GOP candidates. “We will be a great nation again,” he said.

Biden may or may not be certain on Tuesday night whether his Irish optimism panned out in neck-and-neck races (The Hill). Patience could be needed, for instance, if a close result in Georgia’s Senate contest forces a runoff next month. The Hill’s Al Weaver breaks down the key Senate contests and possible paths to a GOP majority, as well as paths for Democrats to retain control.

“Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat,” wrote the analysts with the University of Virginia Center for Politics’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball. “Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 seats. Our projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 governorship.”

In addition to Georgia’s support for Republican challenger Herschel Walker, who has pressured Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) despite Walker’s personal vulnerabilities, Pennsylvania’s enthusiasm for celebrity TV personality Mehmet Oz (R) led Democratic leaders to throw everything and the kitchen sink behind Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D), who plans to cast his ballot in about two hours. The Keystone State outlook this morning, according to polls? Deadlock (The Hill). 

A favorable outcome for Republicans in the House will change the way Congress operates next year and upend the players in the chamber’s most powerful positions, report The Hill’s Emily Brooks and Mike Lillis. All it will take is a net gain of five House seats. Here’s how to view potential Election Day House outcomes: The GOP wins a narrow majority (gain of 8 to 12 seats), or a healthy majority (20 to 30 seats), or a red tsunami (more than 30 seats). Least likely: Democrats retain control in a history-defying midterm shocker during a period of high inflation and low presidential job approval. 

The Hill is spotlighting seven House races tonight in search of clues about the electorate and issue trends: Connecticut’s 5th Congressional District; Rhode Island’s 2nd Congressional District; Virginia’s 7th Congressional District; Ohio’s 9th Congressional District; Indiana’s 1st Congressional District; New Jersey 7th Congressional District; and Virginia’s 1st Congressional District.

The Hill pulled together final midterm election predictions from eight seasoned Washington pundits HERE. 

And by the way, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who hopes to be next year’s Speaker, is eyeing those and other races tonight during an event at a Virginia Beach restaurant with Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), the state’s lieutenant governor and former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.), who was one of McCarthy’s midterm advisers (3WTKR).

The Hill’s Niall Stanage is taking notes tonight to help answer at least five questions, he writes, including how the abortion debate ultimately impacts the midterm contests, how Latinos vote this time around, and how potential 2024 presidential candidates fare (for example, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, whose popularity among Republicans has gotten under former Trump’s skin).

👉 The Hill’s Editor-in-Chief Bob Cusack and Stanage this week will track election results and implications as part of The Hill TV coverage (info about where to watch is HERE). NewsNation’s election coverage info is HERE.

Outgoing Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R), who has presidential ambitions as an aisle-crossing moderate, broadly hinted at that aim with a Monday night tweet of an America United flag-waving video ad in which he’s featured: “After two years of failed policies, Americans are demanding change. While the President is in our state, we hope he hears about how Governor Hogan has turned the economy around, brought people together, and led with common sense.” 

Journalists, state officials and federal authorities will join members of the public alert to any violence, election interference or intimidation, cyberattacks, refusals to concede contests, calls for recounts and litigation that will take time to move through the courts.

“People should have confidence in their election system,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Monday. 

▪ The Washington Post: Republicans sue to disqualify thousands of mail-in ballots in swing states.

▪ Politico Nightly’s experienced journo Charlie Mahtesian wrote on Monday that the midterms have all the underpinnings of what he described as a disaster: “This year’s election is going to be a train wreck.”

▪ The New York Times and The Hill: In a second setback in as many weeks for GOP efforts to hand-audit elections, a judge in Arizona ruled on Monday that Cochise County could not proceed with a plan to count ballots manually this week based on Republican mistrust of voting machines.

▪ The Washington Post: Election officials fear counting delays will help fuel claims of fraud.

▪ CNN Business: Twitter, recently sold to billionaire Elon Musk, could be a new wild card in the midterms. And by the way, CEO Musk placed his Twitter fingers heavily on the GOP side of the election scales on Monday (The Hill and The New York Times).

▪ Reuters: Election deniers on ballots on Tuesday, including Republicans who support Trump’s false claims that he won the 2020 election, aim to run the 2024 presidential vote.

---

Related Articles

▪ The Hill: The powerful American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) endorsed a GOP challenger in a Pennsylvania House race, angering progressives. “Democracy is on the ballot this cycle and AIPAC is helping the side that wants to end free and fair elections,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) told The Hill. 

▪ The Hill’s Nathaniel Weixel unpacks state ballot measures that deal with abortion, Medicaid expansion, marijuana legalization and collection of medical debts. 

▪ The Hill: Black voters say they’re prepared to get blamed for Democratic political disappointments. 

---

LEADING THE DAY

➤ CONGRESS

While Tuesday marks the end of the election cycle for most, things are just getting started in the offices of party leaders on Capitol Hill.

If House Democrats lose their majority, they will likely undergo their biggest leadership shake-up in decades, and House Republicans are fighting over key leadership positions as they determine the direction their party will take in January.

As Politico reports, the next few weeks could result in the biggest changes to House leadership since the Republican Revolution of 1994, when the GOP claimed the chamber after defeating the sitting Democratic speaker in his reelection bid.

Roll Call: If control of the House is close, Jan. 3 could be chaos. Things could get “pretty messy” with election challenges swirling, legal experts say.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who first held the title from 2007 to 2011, and has led the chamber again since 2019, previously signaled this would be her last term. But she has not spoken definitively about stepping down recently, telling CNN’s Anderson Cooper in an interview airing Monday that “my decision will be affected about what happened the last week or two.”

Pelosi spoke to Cooper in her first television interview since the attack on her husband, Paul Pelosi, at their San Francisco home on Oct. 28. The intruder who attacked her husband with a hammer was looking for the Speaker, police said (The Washington Post).

In the interview, Nancy Pelosi addressed the misinformation and disparaging comments from some Republicans in the wake of the attack (The New York Times).

“You would think there would be some level of responsibility,” she said. “You see what the reaction is on the other side, to make a joke of it. That is traumatizing, too.”

If Democrats lose the House and Pelosi does step down, the door opens for a new generation of party members to rise in the leadership ranks. Multiple lawmakers told Politico the race for the No. 1 slot is looking to be in House Democratic Caucus Chairman Hakeem Jeffries’s (D-N.Y.) favor, though House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) is also expressing interest.

▪ Politico: How a secret meeting put Jeffries on track to replace Pelosi.

▪ The New Republic: The next generation of House leadership — Jeffries on the priorities of tomorrow’s Democratic leaders.

While House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is the likely choice for the Speakership if Republicans take the lower chamber, possible GOP leadership in the Senate looks more complicated.

A big election night for Senate Republicans, who could pick up as many as two to five seats, is fueling chatter of a potential showdown between Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and National Republican Senate Committee (NSRC) Chairman Rick Scott (Fla.) in a majority leader’s race, writes The Hill’s Alexander Bolton. 

Scott on Sunday further stoked the rumors by declining to say he won’t run for the position. The Florida senator has close ties to Trump, who has called on Senate Republicans to “impeach” McConnell. McConnell, meanwhile, is losing several close allies after the election as they plan to retire — including Republican Sens. Pat Toomey (Pa.), Ben Sasse (Neb.) and Rob Portman (Ohio), among others.

If Republicans win, some of their seats will be filled by Trump acolytes such as Eric Schmitt in Missouri and Ted Budd in North Carolina. But McConnell still retains a strong grip on the Senate GOP caucus and has raised $380 million to help take back the Senate majority — more than what the NRSC and Trump have raised for the cause. 

The Wall Street Journal: Arizona’s GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters is noncommittal on supporting McConnell as leader.

---

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

➤ INTERNATIONAL   

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres on Monday said the world was “on a highway to climate hell with our foot on the accelerator.” Speaking at the annual COP27 climate conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, his warning set the tone for the climate talks, which are underscored by the threats of war, global warming and economic unrest taking a toll on every continent.

“We are in the fight of our lives, and we are losing,” Guterres said in his opening remarks (The New York Times).

▪ Reuters: COP27: British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak says climate and energy security go hand in hand.

▪ The Guardian: COP conferences are a big game of let’s pretend and 27 won’t be any different.

▪ The New York Times: As climate pledges fall short, a chaotic future looks more like reality.

At COP27 on Tuesday, the United States championed nature-based solutions to climate change with a report describing a “roadmap” for climate progress. The administration touts examples that can capture and store carbon dioxide, including “protection or conservation of natural areas, reforestation, restoration of marshes or other habitats, or sustainable management of farms, fisheries or forests.” In addition, the United States announced specific agency actions to support an investment of $25 billion in infrastructure and climate funding (NPR).

Biden on Monday spoke with former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to congratulate him on his party’s victory in last week’s elections, where his party teamed up with far-right factions to form a conservative coalition. His main opponent, Prime Minister Yair Lapid, a centrist, conceded on Thursday (The Hill).

Ukraine on Monday accused Russia of looting empty homes in the southern city of Kherson and occupying them with troops in civilian clothing in preparation for street fighting during what both sides predict will be one of the war’s most important battles.

In anticipation of a Ukrainian assault to recapture the city, Russia in recent days has ordered civilians out of Kherson, the only regional capital Moscow has seized since invading in February (Reuters and The Wall Street Journal).

The Washington Post: Ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin boasts he “interfered” in U.S. midterm elections.

New COVID-19 cases surged in Guangzhou and other Chinese cities, according to Tuesday data, making the global manufacturing hub China’s latest epicenter for the virus and testing the city’s ability to avoid a lockdown. China’s aggressive zero-COVID policy has affected the country’s economy; its stocks and currency have slipped over virus fears. “We are seeing a game between rising voices for loosening controls and rapid spreading of COVID cases,” Nie Wen, a Shanghai-based economist at Hwabao Trust, told Reuters.

The New York Times: Apple built its empire with China. Now its foundation is showing cracks.

➤ SUPREME COURT

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson on Monday issued her first opinion since joining the Supreme Court, writing a dissent over the court’s refusal to hear an appeal from a death row inmate.

Jackson, who is the nation’s first Black female justice and the court’s only former public defender, wrote a brief two-page dissent that was joined by fellow liberal Justice Sonia Sotomayor.

In arguing that inmate Davel Chinn’s case should have been returned to a lower appeals court, Jackson said a lower court applied the wrong legal standard when it weighed the extent to which Chinn said his case would be helped by evidence he claimed was improperly withheld at trial (The Hill).

The court on Monday also declined to take up the appeal of a Louisiana man who said he was denied the right to a fair trial when prosecutors called the assistant district attorney — who presented the case to the grand jury — as a witness.

Sotomayor, joined by Jackson, dissented from the court’s decision not to take up the case (CNN).

CNN and Reuters: Supreme Court rejects appeal from Air Force veteran in dispute over Veterans Affairs benefits.

---

OPINION

■ How political violence went mainstream on the right, by Rachel Kleinfeld, guest essayist, Politico. https://politi.co/3DE9FVS 

■ What’s at stake in these elections, by The New York Times Editorial Board. https://nyti.ms/3fIRuGw

---

WHERE AND WHEN

👉 YOU’RE INVITED: Share a news query tied to an expert journalist’s insights: The Hill has launched something new and (we hope) engaging via text with Editor-in-Chief Bob Cusack. Learn more and sign up HERE. 

The House meets at noon on Thursday for a pro forma session. Members are scheduled to return to the Capitol on Nov. 14. ​​

The Senate convenes on Thursday at 3 p.m. for a pro forma session. Senators make their way back to Washington on Nov. 14. 

The president receives the President’s Daily Brief at 9:30 a.m. Biden on Wednesday is expected to speak about the results of the midterm elections and take questions at the White House.

Vice President Harris, who is in Los Angeles, will be interviewed by radio outlets at 8 a.m. PT and at 1:30 p.m. PT. 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with Bahamian Foreign Minister Frederick Mitchell at the Department of State at 1:30 p.m. The secretary will meet at 4 p.m. with Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr al-Busaidi.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen departs on Tuesday for New Delhi, India, to participate in the U.S.-India Economic and Financial Partnership gathering on Friday.

---

ELSEWHERE

➤ PANDEMIC & HEALTH 

Paxlovid, Pfizer’s antiviral pill that reduces the risk of hospitalization and death from COVID-19, also reduces the risk of long COVID, a new study by researchers at the Department of Veterans Affairs shows. 

The study, posted online Saturday, looked at electronic records for more than 56,000 veterans with COVID-19, more than 9,000 of whom were treated with Paxlovid within the first five days of their infection. The analysis showed those who were treated with Paxlovid had a 26 percent smaller risk of developing several long COVID conditions, including neurocognitive impairment, heart disease, fatigue, liver disease, kidney disease, muscle pain, blood disorders and shortness of breath (CNN and The Hill).

Information about COVID-19 vaccine and booster shot availability can be found at Vaccines.gov.

▪ The Wall Street Journal: COVID-19’s drag on the workforce proves persistent. “It sets us back.”

▪ CNBC: Six health insurance terms you need to know as open enrollment begins.

Total U.S. coronavirus deaths reported as of this morning, according to Johns Hopkins University (trackers all vary slightly): 1,072,724. Current U.S. COVID-19 deaths are 2,504 for the week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (The CDC shifted its tally of available data from daily to weekly, now reported on Fridays.)

---

THE CLOSER

And finally … 🌚 This morning’s total lunar eclipse was the last the Earth will see for the next three years. 

The initial phase of the eclipse began around 3 a.m. ET, according to NASA. The partial eclipse then started an hour later, when to the naked eye, it looked like someone was taking a bite out of the moon. The lunar disk entered totality at 5:17 a.m. ET and will last for about an hour and a half — so look out your window as you read this newsletter to catch the last glimpses!

A lunar eclipse occurs when the sun, Earth and moon align, and during a full lunar eclipse, the moon falls completely in the Earth’s shadow — causing it to look red. This is how the phenomenon gets the nickname “blood moon,” and the more dusty or cloudy the atmosphere is, the redder the moon appears.

As NASA said, “It’s as if all the world’s sunrises and sunsets are projected onto the Moon” (The Hill and NPR).

---

Stay Engaged

We want to hear from you! Email: Alexis Simendinger and Kristina Karisch. Follow us on Twitter (@asimendinger and @kristinakarisch) and suggest this newsletter to friends!