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President Biden and many workers, investors and businesses are wondering whether the economy will begin to seriously sag later this year.
The president, relying on his economic advisers, has said he “does not anticipate” a recession. Biden’s reelection bid, which he’s expected to clarify within weeks, could turn on that bet.
As the year begins, one of the maddening truths about economic experts is that they are not in agreement. They argue over whether the Federal Reserve is driving the economy into the tarmac or achieving a soft landing with interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation. They complain publicly that available data lags up-to-the-minute, global uncertainties. Then they gaze into the history books for predictions of a possible 2023 recessionary cycle.
The government on Thursday said U.S. growth in the fourth quarter was 2.9 percent. The New York Times called it “solid growth.” Economic analysts reacted with foreboding, arguing that “under the hood,” the report revealed troublesome numbers on imports and inventories, suggesting a slowdown in business sectors. Consumer demand, responsible for the bulk of U.S. growth, is healthy but has slowed. The experts interviewed by news outlets all have a caveat: They want more data.
Bloomberg Businessweek called it “a tricky call” while trying to explain what’s so tricky: “Among those surveyed by Bloomberg, the consensus is that the effects of tighter credit on corporate investment and hiring, as well as consumer spending, won’t translate into a contraction in gross domestic product until the second quarter. Yet many anticipate the damage — at least from a jobs perspective — will be slight compared with earlier episodes.”
Translation: Recession ahead, but perhaps without massive unemployment and crippling consumer jitters.
On Thursday, the government reported that filings for unemployment benefits last week dropped, even amid announced layoffs in the tech world. There are technical reasons why those layoffs have not shown up in the data. But those who study the details told The Hill’s Sylvan Lane that the persistence of low weekly jobless claims is a sign that laid-off workers still have plenty of chances to find new jobs in a resilient economy.
The Wall Street Journal: Layoffs spread beyond high-growth tech titans. Dow, IBM and SAP say they will lay off thousands of workers as belt-tightening becomes the new business priority.
On Wall Street and at the White House, eyes are trained on the Fed, which will announce its next move on Wednesday, predicted to be an interest rate hike of 25 basis points — and with it, a clear indication that the central bank is not done throttling inflation with more hikes.
Biden, weighing economic unknowns and the political complications that are crystal clear, tells Americans that inflation is down, gas prices have fallen, and that job growth and wages have been strong under his tenure. In case those boasts begin to sound hollow — gas prices are up again, for instance — the president’s backup argument is that things would be worse for most Americans under GOP policies.
On Thursday, he traveled to Virginia to warn in a speech that House Republicans, now in the majority, want to raise gas taxes, cut taxes for billionaires and favor a national sales tax of 30 percent. The president, in his first major economic speech of the year, pledged to reject any such bills (Reuters).
“Not on my watch, I will veto everything they send us,” he said.
Note: Most if not all House-passed legislation is expected to die in the Democratic-led Senate, never making it to his desk.
Biden said that House conservatives who refuse to approve additional Treasury borrowing to pay the nation’s bills unless Democrats agree to deep spending cuts will not get what they want with threats of default.
“I will not let anyone use the full faith and credit of the United States as a bargaining chip,” he said (The Hill).
Related Articles
▪ The Hill and The Wall Street Journal: IBM plans to lay off 3,900 employees.
▪ CNBC: Hasbro cuts 15 percent of its workforce.
▪ Barrons: Why a stock market obsessed with the Fed’s inflation fight should focus on Main Street jobs in 2023.
▪ Bloomberg Businessweek feature: Elon Musk’s epic quest for LOLs is only hurting Tesla. “Musk’s tragic flaw is his inability to accept that he’s extremely, painfully unfunny.”
▪ CBS News: Musk’s company, Tesla, on Wednesday reported record year-over-year profits.
LEADING THE DAY
➤ POLITICS
A super PAC supporting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) for president in 2024 will have a presence at this weekend’s New Hampshire GOP meeting, planting its flag in the state for the Florida governor and potentially setting up a clash with former President Trump, who will also be in attendance, writes The Hill’s Brett Samuels.
“Ron to the Rescue,” the only super PAC thus far actively organizing support for DeSantis as the GOP nominee, will attend Saturday’s annual meeting in New Hampshire. John Thomas, a GOP consultant who founded the group, described it as the super PAC’s “first significant coming out event at a party event.” The group will be collecting signatures to build up its team on the ground in the Granite State and unveiling a list of former New Hampshire Republican elected officials who are backing DeSantis over Trump ahead of next year’s primary.
As Trump prepares for his first public events since announcing his presidential campaign, dozens of members of the Republican National Committee (RNC) are expressing doubts about his ability to win back the White House and are calling for a competitive primary to produce a stronger nominee in 2024. The 168 members of the RNC are gathering in Southern California to select their own leader on Friday, and The New York Times found few eager to name Trump as their nominee for a third time.
Republican National Committee members will elect a new chair of the party on Friday, ending a race that has seen Ronna McDaniel’s RNC leadership tested by two rivals. McDaniel, who has led the RNC since being tapped by Trump to the role in 2016, is being challenged by Harmeet Dhillon, a legal adviser to Trump’s 2020 campaign; and MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell (The Hill).
▪ The Hill: DeSantis weighed in for Dhillon.
▪ WMUR: Trump to speak in New Hampshire at the annual meeting of state Republicans.
▪ Reuters: Trump seeks to shift his idling White House campaign back into gear.
Trump risks losing access to his Facebook account again unless he changes the style of content he posts as part of new guardrails added by Meta, write The Hill’s Rebecca Klar and Brett Samuels. While Meta is letting the 2024 candidate back on its platforms, his posts on his Truth Social platform, which has more lax content enforcement, would run afoul of Meta’s standards that accompany his reinstatement.
The Hill’s The Memo: Trump tries to turn the page, on social media and campaign trail.
Also heating up is the 2024 California Senate race, where Rep. Adam Schiff (D) on Thursday announced his candidacy for the seat currently held by Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), 89, joining other Democrats poised to compete for a promotion to the upper chamber. Schiff’s announcement follows Rep. Katie Porter (D) jumping into the race earlier this month. Feinstein has not said whether she will run for a sixth term but is expected to retire. Others, including Reps. Barbara Lee (D) and Ro Khanna (D), are also said to be plotting potential campaigns for the seat.
“I have just tremendous respect for her and — more than respect — admiration and affection,” Schiff told the Los Angeles Times of Feinstein. He said he informed her of his plans and spoke to her on Wednesday (The Hill).
Vox: Schiff just made California’s Senate race a whole lot messier.
Senate Democrats say the agenda they discussed among themselves this week essentially boils down to the annual defense bill and the farm bill, with nominations sprinkled in, writes The Hill’s Alexander Bolton. After going big and bold in the 117th Congress, Democrats are playing it safe heading into 2024 with 23 Senate seats on the line, including in Republican-leaning states such as West Virginia, Montana and Ohio.
The National Archives is asking former presidents and vice presidents to re-check their personal records for any classified documents or other presidential records in the wake of discoveries at the residences of Trump, Biden and former Vice President Mike Pence since the summer. The Archives on Thursday sent a letter to representatives of former presidents and vice presidents from the past six presidential administrations covered by the Presidential Records Act — from former President Reagan’s White House to the present.
“The responsibility to comply with the [records law] does not diminish after the end of an administration,” the letter states. “Therefore, we request that you conduct an assessment of any materials … previously assumed to be personal in nature might inadvertently contain Presidential or Vice Presidential records … whether classified or unclassified.”
Former President Carter didn’t receive a letter from the Archives because he’s technically exempt. The law he enacted took effect after he left office (CNN).
Bloomberg News: FBI Director Christopher Wray says classified document laws “are there for a reason.”
➤ CONGRESS
A GOP-backed bill aimed at abolishing the tax code as we know it is getting a lot of attention, but its fate is far from certain in the lower chamber as it faces an avalanche from opposition from Democrats and even Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), write The Hill’s Tobias Burns and Aris Folley. The Fair Tax Act was thrust into the national spotlight earlier this month after reports emerged that it was agreed it be brought to the floor for a vote as part of negotiations between McCarthy and his GOP detractors during the days-long ballot to secure the Speaker gavel earlier this month.
But as the bill becomes fodder for growing Democratic attacks, including from the White House, more Republicans are distancing themselves from the legislation.
▪ Vox: FairTax, the GOP plan for a 30 percent national sales tax, explained.
▪ The Hill: House lawmakers launch the “Congressional Dads Caucus.”
▪ Roll Call: The Senate’s slow start to 2023 rolls on. The upper chamber took two roll call votes, but is still waiting for an organizing resolution.
House Republicans have called top health officials to Capitol Hill to testify about the Biden administration’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Bloomberg News reports. The now-GOP controlled House Energy and Commerce Committee is planning a public hearing for Feb. 8 to interrogate leaders from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Food and Drug Administration, the National Institutes of Health, and the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response.
ABC News: Five women, immense power: Can they keep the U.S. from a fiscal brink?
Truth & Consequences? Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) remains firmly in the headlines.
A set of updated campaign finance reports are deepening the mystery surrounding the source of high-dollar loans that Santos made to his campaign last year, writes The Hill’s Max Greenwood.
Santos’s campaign previously reported that a pair of six-figure loans from the candidate — one for $500,000 that was made last March and another for $125,000 in October — came from his personal funds. But in an amended filing with the Federal Election Commission on Tuesday, Santos’s campaign unchecked a box indicating that the $500,000 loan came from personal funds. Similarly, a separate updated report left the same box unchecked for the $125,000 loan. The changes were first reported by The Daily Beast.
Further complicating the matter is the fact that filings from later in 2022 still mark the $500,000 loan as coming from personal funds, leaving the source of the money unclear. Campaign finance experts are struggling to unpack the latest disclosures from Santos’s campaign, which they say are riddled with potential errors and discrepancies.
▪ Politico: As Santos digs in, both parties ramp up campaign plans for his demise.
▪ The New York Times: Santos says he has a new treasurer. The treasurer does not agree.
IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES
➤ INTERNATIONAL
The Hill’s Brad Dress reports that Ukraine’s breakthrough in securing heavy tanks from the U.S. and Germany this week has quickly ignited debate over whether world-class fighter jets could be next. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has long sought air defenses, a no-fly zone and fixed-wing fighter jets from allies (The Hill). Kyiv operates a fleet of aging Soviet aircraft and has requested Western, modern fighter jets since the onset of the war — but so far it has remained out of the nation’s grasp. But Ukraine has gradually secured more advanced weaponry from the U.S. and European allies, and it’s likely American-made F-16s will follow that same course, experts say.
▪ Politico: U.S. to send Ukraine more advanced Abrams tanks — but no secret armor.
▪ The Washington Post: Ukraine faces logistics hurdles ahead of tank deliveries.
▪ CNBC: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky demands more sanctions as Ukraine reels from Russian bombardment; explosions heard near nuclear power plant.
▪ Reuters: A Russian graveyard reveals Wagner’s prisoner army.
▪ The Washington Post: What is the Wagner group, the Russian mercenary outfit in Ukraine?
▪ The Wall Street Journal: Wagner group designated by the U.S. as a transnational criminal group.
▪ The New York Times guest essay by journalist Mikhail Zygar: Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner group and the man who may challenge Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Russia launched several volleys of missiles at Ukraine on Thursday, with strikes reported across the country killing at least 11 people, the authorities said. The attacks follow the promise of tanks for Ukraine, and as it has for months, Moscow targeted energy infrastructure, Ukraine’s prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, said in a post on Telegram (The New York Times).
“The main goal is energy facilities, providing Ukrainians with light and heat,” he said.
▪ The Wall Street Journal: Russia’s war on Ukraine changed global oil trade. Here is what it looks like now.
▪ NBC News: U.S. troops killed Bilal al-Sudani, a senior leader of the Islamic State terrorist group, and 10 other ISIS fighters in an overnight assault operation in northern Somalia ordered by Biden.
▪ The New York Times: In China’s crackdown on protesters, a familiar effort to blame foreign powers.
▪ Reuters: Israeli troops kill seven Palestinian gunmen, two civilians in Thursday’s Jenin clash, Palestinians say.
▪ Reuters: Israel hits Gaza as conflict flares after West Bank clashes.
▪ The Washington Post: These Peruvians depend on Machu Picchu to survive. They shut it down anyway.
➤ ADMINISTRATION
Biden is considering a trip to Europe next month to mark a year since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. The White House has not made a final decision but is exploring ways and locations in which the president could showcase allied unity and Ukraine’s resilience against Russia‘s war as the conflict enters a new phase, NBC News reported.
The president anticipates a busy February, including a scheduled event with Vice President Harris on Feb. 3 in Philadelphia, his televised State of the Union address on Feb. 7 and domestic travel to contrast Democrats’ agenda with the GOP while leaning into what is expected to be his bid for reelection.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken will travel next week to Egypt, Israel and the West Bank, the department confirmed on Thursday and Haaretz reported early this week. The secretary will meet with Israeli leadership on Monday and Palestinian leadership on Tuesday as the Biden administration seeks an understanding with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s new hard-line government (The Times of Israel).
Reuters: Biden is moving to restart Trump-era rapid asylum screenings at the U.S.-Mexico border in an attempt to address a record number of illegal crossings.
OPINION
■ We profiled the “signs of crisis” in 50 years of mass shootings. This is what we found, by Jillian Peterson and James Densley, contributors, The New York Times. https://nyti.ms/3kGQwwB
■ Turkey, Finland and Sweden: Strategic patience, but with a deadline, by John R. Deni, opinion contributor, The Hill. https://bit.ly/3ZYgbRA
WHERE AND WHEN
👉 INVITATION to The Hill’s virtual newsmaker event TODAY, 2 p.m. ET, with Heather Boushey, a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, in discussion with The Hill’s Sylvan Lane. RSVP and join live.
📲 Ask The Hill: Share a news query tied to an expert journalist’s insights: The Hill launched something new and (we hope) engaging via text with Editor-in-Chief Bob Cusack. Learn more and sign up HERE.
The House will convene at 9 a.m.
The Senate meets at 3 p.m. on Monday.
The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 9 a.m. He will depart the White House at 5:30 p.m. for Camp David in Maryland, where he will remain through the weekend.
The vice president at 2 p.m. will host an event at the White House focused on accelerating replacement of lead pipes in communities. She will participate in a moderated conversation with Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael Regan.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in South Africa, where she will visit the coal mining region of Mpumalanga and emphasize the U.S. commitment to South Africa’s Just Energy Transition Partnership. The secretary will tour a job training facility funded by the United States and deliver remarks after joining a roundtable with local women working in the renewable energy sector. She also will tour the Apartheid Museum in Johannesburg.
The secretary of State and United States Trade Representative Katherine Tai will host a virtual event at 1 p.m. for the Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity.
The White House daily press briefing is scheduled at 1:30 p.m.
Second gentleman Doug Emhoff is in Krakow, Poland. He will tour the Auschwitz-Birkenau State Memorial and Museum and participate in candle-lighting and wreath-laying ceremonies. To mark International Holocaust Remembrance Day, he will attend the commemoration of the 78th anniversary of the liberation of the German Nazi concentration and extermination camp Auschwitz. Emhoff will attend a Shabbat dinner hosted by the Jewish Community Center with members of the Krakow Jewish community. He will be in Poland through Sunday and in Germany next week.
ELSEWHERE
➤ NEWS MEDIA
BuzzFeed’s stock soared 150 percent on Thursday after it became public that it will use ChapGPT’s AI to create some content for readers. The decision marks a milestone in how media companies implement the new technology into their businesses. Jonah Peretti, BuzzFeed’s co-founder and chief executive, told employees in a memo that they can expect “AI inspired content” to “move from an R&D stage to part of our core business” (CNN). BuzzFeed envisions using the technology to create quizzes and to “personalize” some of its content. The company for now will not use artificial intelligence to help write news stories, a spokesperson told CNN.
A recent decision by DirecTV to let its carrier agreement with conservative cable network Newsmax expire is the latest blow to a handful of conservative media outlets that have sought to carve out a space for themselves in the wake of Trump’s election loss in 2020 (The Hill). Newsweek reports that Trump will lose access to millions of potential viewers Saturday at the first rally of his 2024 campaign because of Newsmax’s disappearance from DirecTV.
▪ CNN: Mega-publisher Dotdash Meredith cuts 7 percent of its workforce, citing weakened ad market.
▪ Axios: Media layoffs 2023: Vox, NBC News, The Washington Post cut workers.
➤ HEALTH & PANDEMIC
A Food and Drug Administration advisory committee on Thursday voted in favor of rolling out a simpler COVID-19 vaccination strategy that would be less confusing and ideally encourage more people to get the jabs. The panel would like to periodically target the same viral strain or strains for initial COVID-19 shots and boosters, regardless of the vaccine’s manufacturer. Under the proposal, most people would be offered a single shot in the fall. Older people, young children and people with compromised immune systems might be offered multiple shots spaced some time apart instead of a single shot. The vote for the change was unanimous: 21-0 (NPR).
“We can’t keep doing what we’re doing. We have to move on,” said Bruce Gellin, a physician and leading vaccine and infectious disease expert who is chief of global public health strategy at the Rockefeller Foundation. Gallin is a temporary voting member on the FDA panel. “I think this is a reasonable approach,” he added.
The Atlantic: What we actually know about how COVID-19 spreads.
Information about the availability of COVID-19 vaccine and booster shots can be found at Vaccines.gov.
In states where abortion is no longer protected by law, nearly half of residents say abortion access has narrowed in the months since the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade. As the Hill’s Daniel de Visé writes, a small but significant number of Americans now know someone who has traveled across state lines for an abortion, undergone a birth-control procedure or delayed having a baby since the Dobbs ruling. And, as a new IPSOS-NPR poll reflects, the country has entered a divisive new reality: In roughly half of the states, a Republican majority wants to make abortion harder for Americans to access. In the other half, Democratic majorities want it available to all. But most Americans say abortion should be legal in most or all cases.
▪ NPR: Many Americans don’t know basic abortion facts. Test your knowledge.
▪ The New York Times: How do heavy metals like lead get in baby food?
▪ The Washington Post: New study finds six ways to slow memory decline and lower dementia risk.
▪ U.S. News and World Report: Older people with hearing loss were more likely to develop dementia, according to research that suggests hearing aids — which are now available over-the-counter at much lower prices — may reduce this risk.
Total U.S. coronavirus deaths reported as of this morning, according to Johns Hopkins University (trackers all vary slightly): 1,107,559. Current U.S. COVID-19 deaths are 3,756 for the week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (The CDC shifted its tally of available data from daily to weekly, now reported on Fridays.)
THE CLOSER
And finally … 👏👏👏 Bravo to this week’s Morning Report Quiz winners! Puzzlers had smart guesses about big cats, our theme this week with a hat tip to many headlines about Leopard 2 tanks.
🐆 Here’s who roared to victory, going 4/4: Richard Baznik, Ted Kontek, Mary Anne McEnery, Patrick Kavanagh, Cliff Grulke, Kody Kirk, Amanda Fisher, Bill Grieshober, Lou Tisler, Daniel Bachhuber, Stan Wasser, Ki Harvey, Lesa Davis, Richard Fanning, Luther Berg, Pam Manges, Mark Roeddinger, Randall Patrick, Robert Bradley, Laura Rettaliata, Terry Pflaumer, Steve James, Eric Truax, Harry Strulovici, Jerry LaCamera and J.A. Ramos.
Readers knew that among our list of big cat options, lions are considered social animals.
NFL’s whiskered nod to a big cat? How about the Carolina Panthers, the Detroit Lions and the Jacksonville Jaguars — which means “all of the above” was the answer we needed to see.
The only big cat native to North America is the jaguar.
Beautiful and fast, leopards can run up to 36 mph, according to researchers. Video compilation HERE. 🐾
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