Welcome to The Hill’s Morning Report, and happy Thursday! This daily email, a successor to The Hill’s Tipsheet, is reported by Jonathan Easley and Alexis Simendinger to get you up to speed on the most important developments in politics and policy, plus trends to watch. (CLICK HERE to subscribe!)
Special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russia’s election interference and “related matters” has hit the one-year mark.
Chances of Trump tweeting about the probe today are high, especially considering that a joint press conference planned this afternoon disappeared from his overnight schedule.
The New York Times has a look back at the early days of the investigation and can report that the probe is aptly named “Crossfire Hurricane.”
Mueller’s team has been tight-lipped but this much is certain: The Russians interfered in the 2016 election with the aim of sowing social unrest among Americans and to boost President Trump’s outsider campaign. That is the determination of the intelligence community. On Wednesday, the Republican and Democratic leaders of the Senate Intelligence Committee confirmed the finding.
“We see no reason to dispute the conclusions.” — Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee.
Whether Trump campaign officials participated in a criminal conspiracy on that front is still being investigated. One year in, there is no public evidence or official conclusion.
***BREAKING over the last 24 hours*** Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani tells multiple news outlets that Mueller’s team told Trump’s attorneys they will follow Justice Department guidance and will not indict the president (CNN) …The Senate Judiciary Committee released transcripts of its interview with Donald Trump Jr., offering the most thorough account yet of his 2016 meeting with the Russian lawyer at Trump Tower who offered dirt on Hillary Clinton (The Hill)… Missing files motivated leak by a law enforcement official of Michael Cohen’s financial records (The New Yorker)
*** MORE *** Democrats claim to have evidence that the Kremlin funneled money to boost Trump through the National Rifle Association (Sen. Dianne Feinstein [D-Calif.]) … Mueller has subpoenaed the social media expert for longtime Trump adviser Roger Stone (Bloomberg) … Indicted Russian company says Mueller is refusing to hand over evidence (Reuters) … Partisan divisions over Russia probe deepen (The Hill) … Jonathan Turley: What the Trump Tower transcripts tell us.
What’s next
- Expect Trump’s allies and attorneys to be out in force today marking the anniversary by demanding an end to the investigation. Giuliani: If Mueller subpoenas us, we’ll challenge it.
- An interview between Mueller and Trump would likely be a final investigatory step. Giuliani says negotiations are in a holding pattern. There is a deep deficit of trust between Mueller’s team and Trump’s attorneys, who assert the special counsel wants to try to trick the president into lying.
LEADING THE DAY
INVESTIGATIONS: A rundown of the Mueller probe as we enter year two…
Individuals who have been charged
- Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort has been charged with a litany of financial crimes pertaining to his business dealings and foreign lobbying work. He maintains his innocence.
- Manafort’s former top deputy Richard Gates has been charged with many of the same crimes but has pleaded guilty to two charges and is cooperating with Mueller.
- Former Trump campaign adviser George Papadopoulos has pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI and is cooperating with Mueller.
- Trump’s former national security adviser Michael Flynn has pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI and is cooperating with Mueller.
- Attorney Alex van der Zwaan has pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI and is serving a short prison term.
- Thirteen Russian entities and three Russians have been indicted.
The sidebar investigations
- Trump’s firing of former FBI Director James Comey opened questions about whether the president sought to obstruct justice in the Russia investigation.
- Mueller’s team referred an investigation of Trump’s personal attorney Michael Cohen to the U.S. attorney’s office for the Southern District of New York.
- House conservatives are clashing with the Justice Department (DOJ), demanding documents that show how the investigation started and whether the Trump campaign had been infiltrated or illegally spied upon (The Hill).
The collateral damage
- Trump is furious with Attorney General Jeff Sessions, blaming him for recusing himself from the Russia investigation and paving the way for the special counsel. The investigation is being overseen by Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, who after a year is a target on the right.
- FBI officials Peter Strzok and Lisa Page were purged from the special counsel’s team, and are being investigated by some in Congress for sending disparaging texts about Trump.
- Former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe was fired a day before he was set to retire for “lacking candor” in interviews with the DOJ and his bosses at the FBI over his handling of the investigation into Clinton’s emails and activities.
Players to watch
- The investigation sparked an epic clash between the nation’s top current and former law enforcement officials and the White House. It has made media stars out of Comey and former spooks John Brennan and James Clapper, while turning Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) into the face of the collusion investigation on Capitol Hill.
- House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes (R-Calif.) has suffered reputational damage but maintains the support of GOP leaders and continues to target rogue actors at the FBI and DOJ, whom he believes mishandled the investigation.
- The press and cable news feast on developments with around-the-clock coverage, but corrections and retractions also dinged some news outlets and cost a few journalists their jobs.
CONGRESS: Lawmakers with politics in mind often chafe at moving in lockstep during an election year, and Wednesday was a good example on a number of fronts.
Immigration: The Hill – Hours after House GOP leaders privately warned rank-and-file lawmakers not to attempt to force immigration votes on the House floor, two more Republican lawmakers signed up to do just that Wednesday. Momentum is building for a rebellion and the split is a crisis for Speaker Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis.) team. Lawmakers huddle over discharge petition (The Hill)…
> Reuters: To try to fend off a discharge petition to move immigration changes to the floor, Ryan is telling his conference that he’s working on a piece of immigration legislation with the president. He has offered no details.
> The Hill: Trump used harsh language Wednesday to describe MS-13 gang members in the U.S. illegally. During a White House roundtable focused on his opposition to “sanctuary cities,” the president said, “These aren’t people. These are animals.”
Net neutrality: The Hill — The Senate on Wednesday voted to reinstate the Federal Communications Commission’s (FCC) net neutrality rules, passing a bill that has little chance of advancing in the House, but offers supporters of the pre-Trump rules a small victory. It also lends Democrats a political rallying point about “open, fair” internet access for use in the midterm elections.
Spending: The Washington Post – Republican lawmakers are pushing back against Trump’s request for Congress to cut $15 billion from programs including children’s health insurance and Ebola disaster relief, saying the vote could make them vulnerable to Democratic attacks in this year’s midterm campaign.
Infrastructure: The Hill – The president’s legislative framework for a sweeping infrastructure investment proposal appears to be on ice. Despite bipartisan support for the idea of restoring U.S. roads, bridges and broadband, the endeavor faded this year among lawmakers caught up with other legislative matters.
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IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES
➔ INTERNATIONAL: North Korea: The Hill — Trump acknowledged Wednesday his planned summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un might not take place after Pyongyang threatened to scrap the historic meeting. Despite those threats, Trump said he would insist North Korea surrender its nuclear weapons while still keeping the door open to talks.
TRADE: The Hill – Trump administration officials plan today to meet with Chinese officials in Washington to continue negotiations about trade. In a written statement, the White House said the meetings today and Friday at the Treasury Department are aimed at “rebalancing” the U.S.-China economic relationship.
> Bloomberg reported a subplot Wednesday: China critic and White House adviser Peter Navarro was to be sidelined during the talks because of recent “unprofessional” behavior. The White House later indicated Navarro would be part of the U.S. team.
> Axios added details with a report citing five sources saying Navarro blew up and cursed at Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin earlier this month during trade talks in Beijing.
> Bloomberg: Trump tries to defend his sudden and controversial support for China’s ZTE, a phone-making company, saying trade talks with China are just beginning.
> Reuters: Japan, seeking exemption from U.S. tariffs, now contemplating World Trade Organization retaliation.
NAFTA: The Hill — Trade experts and lawmakers say a new North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) deal, negotiated for months among the U.S., Canada and Mexico, is within reach.
>The Wall Street Journal: Ryan had set this Thursday as an informal deadline to get a deal through Congress this year. The deadline is a soft one, but each day after that date makes U.S. ratification of an accord more difficult.
Middle East – The Hill —The Treasury Department applied a series of new sanctions aimed at Hezbollah.
>Reuters: Oil prices hit their highest level since November 2014 today, with Brent crude creeping closer to $80 per barrel as supplies tighten and U.S. tensions with Iran simmer.
>Opinion from former Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.): For Israel, today is one of real miracles. (The Hill)
➔ WHITE HOUSE & ADMINISTRATION: The president spent two hours visiting first lady Melania Trump at the hospital on Wednesday. It was the third consecutive day Trump made the trip to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center to visit his wife, who is recovering from treatment for an unspecified kidney ailment.
The Hill: The president acknowledged for the first time on Wednesday that he paid his personal attorney more than $100,000 to reimburse him for a hush-money payment to adult-film actress Stormy Daniels, who says she had an affair with the president. The admission came in a financial disclosure released by the Office of Government Ethics (OGE).
OGE acting Director David Apol said the payment “should have been reported” as a liability last year but that it’s unclear whether the omission was “knowing and willful.”
Cabinet watch
Perpetually embattled Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt faced a grilling from senators on Wednesday. The session was crashed by protesters holding “fire him” signs.
Pruitt has been defiant but acknowledged that he has made some mistakes (The Hill).
“There have been decisions over the last 16 months or so that, as I look back on those decisions, I would not make the same decisions again.”
Meanwhile, the Senate Intelligence Committee voted to send Gina Haspel’s nomination to the floor. She could become the first-ever woman to lead the CIA as soon as this week (The Hill).
➔ STATES:
Michigan
Americans for Prosperity (AFP), the conservative group backed by billionaire businessmen Charles and David Koch, is playing the Michigan Democratic gubernatorial primary. AFP is pumping $270,000 into digital ads and mailers attacking Gretchen Whitmer (YouTube). The Democratic primary is on Aug. 7 and Whitmer is locked in tight race against Shri Thanedar.
The Detroit Free Press: Michigan State U. to pay $500 million in settlements to Dr. Larry Nassar’s victims.
West Virginia
The Hill: Trump is planning several trips to West Virginia and intends to make Sen. Joe Manchin (D) a top target this cycle. Trump carried West Virginia by 42 points in 2016. Manchin is among the most vulnerable Democrats seeking reelection.
California
The Hill: California’s jungle primary system is causing havoc in the governor’s race. Democratic front-runner Gavin Newsom would love to face Republican businessman John Cox in the general election, rather than former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa or state Treasurer John Chiang.
Robert G. Boatright: Could too many candidates be a problem for Democrats?
The Associated Press: Liberal victories in primaries cheer some Democrats, worry others.
OPINION
It Sure Looks Like John Bolton Is Trying to Sabotage the North Korea Talks, by Joshua Keating, Slate. https://slate.me/2GoKB5G
I Helped Start the Gaza Protests. I Don’t Regret it. “Our voices needed to be heard, and they have been,” by Ahmed Abu Artema, The New York Times. https://nyti.ms/2wEKZgP
WHERE AND WHEN
The House convenes at 10 a.m.
The Senate convenes at 9:30 a.m. A Senate Appropriations subcommittee will question FCC Chairman Ajit Pai this morning, less than a day after the Senate rejected net neutrality changes Pai championed.
The president has lunch with Secretary of Defense James Mattis. Trump holds several bilateral meetings with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
ELSEWHERE
> Facebook’s Zuckerberg to appear before European Parliament about data privacy policies, by Ali Breland, The Hill. https://bit.ly/2IlQLcx
> Boston Dynamics will soon sell its terrifying robot dogs. What could go wrong?, by Nestor Ramos, The Boston Globe. https://bit.ly/2GnRN1O
> Research links physicians prescribing opioids with their receipt of meals and payments from drug manufacturers: “Amidst national efforts to curb the overprescribing of opioids, our findings suggest that manufacturers should consider a voluntary decrease or complete cessation of marketing to physicians. Federal and state governments should also consider legal limits on the number and amount of payments.” Journal of the American Medical Association research letter, May 14. https://bit.ly/2L3GG1o
THE CLOSER
And finally … Unstuck it! Kudos to a community that joined forces in a hurry in Wentzville, Mo., Wednesday to rescue a 1,300-pound pregnant cow mired overnight in a mud pit up to its shoulders. On live television, local fire department personnel and a good Samaritan with a backhoe needed just 80 minutes in a suburb of St. Louis to dislodge the shaken cow, which immediately headed off to graze on some grass. The owner’s relieved reaction? “Thank you, thank you, thank you. And I’ll be bringing pies by.”
