The Hill’s Morning Report – Sponsored by CVS Health – A pivotal day for House Republicans on immigration

Welcome to The Hill’s Morning Report, and TGIF! This daily email, a successor to The Hill’s Tipsheet, is reported by Jonathan Easley and Alexis Simendinger to get you up to speed on the most important developments in politics and policy, plus trends to watch. (CLICK HERE to subscribe!)

The story is changing by the minute, but here is what we know about the GOP mutiny on Capitol Hill over immigration…which now involves the farm bill:

From The Hill’s Melanie Zanona and Juliegrace Brufke: GOP lawmakers hope to reach an agreement by the end of the day to end a revolt by Republican centrists demanding votes on legislation to protect “Dreamers”…House conservatives and GOP leaders hope to come up with a way forward that moderate Republicans, conservatives and even some Democrats could support (The Hill)…The bill that conservatives favor will get a vote next month. That’s a problem for some who want to vote on immigration before the farm bill roll call. It’s also a problem for centrist Republicans who have indicated they may torpedo the bill sponsored by House Judiciary Committee Chairman Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.), voting against the rule bringing it to the floor. (The Hill).

This is a stunning and abrupt turn of events that seemed unimaginable only a week ago. Moderate Republicans running in swing districts have effectively forced Speaker Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis.) hand by threatening to work with Democrats to force a vote on an immigration bill.

Analysis from The Hill’s editor-in-chief Bob Cusack:

“This is a multi-layered problem for Republican leaders, who are getting squeezed by the Freedom Caucus and moderate Republicans who are in danger of losing their seats this fall. For years, centrist GOP lawmakers have talked tough and then caved to leadership. But on this issue, they are organized and not backing down. Are Republicans going to get a sweeping deal on the thorny issue of immigration less than six months before the election? Color me skeptical.” 

Keep coming back to TheHill.com as more developments unfold today …

Watch: House Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) tells The Hill that Republicans are close to an immigration deal.

The Hill: GOP leaders will roll the dice on a Friday farm bill vote even as conservatives threaten to take it down over immigration. 

***DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT***… Police shot and wounded an armed man who was firing a gun and yelling about President Trump at Florida’s Trump National Doral golf club this morning…no one else is believed to be hurt… terrorism has not officially been ruled out (Sun Sentinel).
 

LEADING THE DAY

INTERNATIONAL: Around the world in 12 minutes. That’s the upshot of President Trump’s discussion in the Oval Office Thursday with the White House press pool. Appearing to speak through the media directly to North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and President Xi Jinping of China, the president said:

• Kim can remain in power and receive U.S. military protection if he agrees to denuke his country (The Hill);
• The “Libya model,” as referenced by national security adviser John Bolton but reinterpreted as regime change, is not in store for Kim … unless he continues along the nuclear path he’s pursuing;
• President Xi Jinping may have influenced Kim Jong Un during their recent meeting to cool North Korea’s optimism about a meeting with Trump in Singapore;
• A planned June 12 meeting between Trump and Kim, now in limbo, is still being logistically planned between U.S. and North Korean officials;
• U.S.-China trade talks are in their second day in Washington, but are unlikely to bear fruit because “China has become very spoiled”;
• Chinese telecom giant ZTE has done “very bad things” to the U.S. economy, but U.S. tariffs on China are also punitive to U.S. companies, so he agreed to Xi’s request to examine the impact.
  

  Talking trade with the Vice Premier of the People’s Republic of China, Liu He. pic.twitter.com/9T7Iq6F3Xe

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 17, 2018

  Trump volunteered his own doubts about a possible trade deal with China while bilateral talks are underway in Washington (The Hill) …. China prepares up to $200 billion in trade concessions, but skepticism abounds (The New York Times) … China denies offering $200 billion in trade concessions (Reuters) … U.S. farms and factories cannot produce enough to meet White House goal to close trade gap with China (The Wall Street Journal).

  ZTE: The Hill —- FBI Director Christopher Wray warns against a Trump deal with China’s ZTE.

  North Korea: Trump offers “protections” if North Korea surrenders nuclear program (The Hill) … Trump contradicts his national security adviser on North Korea. What’s the “Libya model” they’re talking about? (The Washington Post analysis) … White House repeats: If North Korea wants to meet to discuss denuclearization, Trump will be there (The Hill).

  NAFTA: U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer says NAFTA countries ‘nowhere near’ a deal (The Hill).

  ****

  INVESTIGATIONS: Yesterday marked the anniversary of special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia probe, and from a news standpoint, the developments did not disappoint.

  And late Thursday, it was reported that Paul Manafort’s former son-in-law cut a plea deal with the Justice Department to cooperate, according to sources (Reuters). The guilty plea agreement, which is under seal, could add to the legal pressure on Manafort, Trump’s former campaign chairman, who is facing two indictments brought by Mueller.

  Meanwhile, the president opened a new line of attack against the ongoing investigation(s):

  Wow, word seems to be coming out that the Obama FBI “SPIED ON THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN WITH AN EMBEDDED INFORMANT.” Andrew McCarthy says, “There’s probably no doubt that they had at least one confidential informant in the campaign.” If so, this is bigger than Watergate!

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 17, 2018

  Trump referred to this piece in the National Review. For those who are unfamiliar, Andrew McCarthy is a well-regarded former prosecutor and his work is required reading among conservatives who believe the Mueller probe has used questionable tactics or run too far afield. The latest from McCarthy: Spinning a crossfire hurricane.

  The Wall Street Journal: Was Trump’s campaign set up?

  The Washington Post: Trump joins push to expose an FBI source.

  But as The Hill’s Niall Stanage reports, there is no sign the Mueller probe is wrapping up and the cloud of investigation could hang over the Trump administration for some time, even as the president’s team has become more aggressive.

  Michael Avenatti, the lawyer for adult-film actress Stormy Daniels, continues to be a thorn in the president’s side. Speaking on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” Avenatti claimed that two additional women have approached him claiming to have been paid to stay quiet about alleged affairs with the president (MSNBC).

  ***MORE***Judge to rule on release of special counsel’s contacts with the media (The Hill)…The crazy true story of Trump Moscow (Buzzfeed)…Mueller gives judge full memo explaining basis for case against Manafort (Bloomberg)…Inside Mueller’s FBI team (Politico)…Trump can’t stop discovery in ‘Apprentice’ alum’s defamation suit (The Hollywood Reporter)…Who leaked Michael Cohen’s bank records? It may not be secret for long (Bloomberg).

   

  IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

  ➔ CONGRESS: The Hill —- The Senate, by a vote of 54-45, confirmed Gina Haspel to become the first female director of the CIA. She captured a broader margin of support than some expected, with six Democrats voting “yes” and two Republicans voting “no.”

  House prison reform: The Hill —- Democrats urge colleagues to oppose a prison reform measure, once a legislative goal that was backed by former President Obama and a bipartisan group of lawmakers when it was combined with criminal justice reforms. Democrats call the current House measure, which is strongly supported by Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner, flawed.

  House “right to try” bill: The Hill —- The House will vote next week on Senate-passed legislation aimed at making it easier for sick patients to access experimental drugs, a priority for Trump, Vice President Pence and groups backed by conservative mega-donors Charles and David Koch.

  ➔ WHITE HOUSE & ADMINISTRATION: The White House communications team has scrapped its large daily meeting one week after The Hill first reported on an official who made a disparaging remark about Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) cancer diagnosis at one of the gatherings.

  That story blew up, provoking demands from lawmakers that the White House official, Kelly Sadler, apologize. Rep. Walter Jones (R-N.C.) has even drafted a resolution calling for an official apology. Sadler called McCain’s family to apologize but has not addressed the controversy publicly.

  The White House has been criticized for appearing to care more about smoking out the leaker than addressing the incendiary remark.

  The Associated Press: White House threatens firings after McCain remark gets out.

  Kellyanne Conway: “Some White House leakers are senior officials.”

  More news from across the administration…

  The Associated Press: Trump to deny federal funds to family planning clinics that discuss abortion.

  The Hill: A behind-the-scenes look at the stories Trump told lawmakers at a closed door meeting this week, including one about French President Emmanuel Macron begging him not to pull out of the Iran deal because the French are trying to sell Renault cars to the Iranians. “Who buys Renault?” Trump joked.

  The Hill: The White House is furious over media reports that Trump called immigrants “animals.” The president was clearly referring to MS-13 gang members, despite press reports to the contrary.

  USA Today: Trump earned $40 million last year from his company’s Washington, D.C., hotel.

  The New York Times: Kushner family nears deal with Qatar-linked company for troubled real estate project.

  ➔ CAMPAIGNS: A few nuggets from this Washington Post interview with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky)…The midterm elections will be “very challenging” for Republicans…McConnell says the battle for the Senate will run through nine states, but he left off three states that Trump carried in 2016: Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which are supposed to be big GOP targets.

  The Hill: Washington Democrats worried about ascendant left.

  The New York Times: Half the women candidates running in House primaries have won so far.

  WTOP: Valerie Ervin running for Maryland governor after her running mate died.

   

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  OPINION

  The diplomatic security relationship between Russia and Israel, by Stephen Blank, opinion contributor to The Hill. https://bit.ly/2KCbx4h

  How tax cuts are impacting Americans and businesses, by Grover Norquist, opinion contributor to The Hill. https://bit.ly/2IVAJp4

  WHERE AND WHEN

  The House expects to vote on a farm bill at 10:30 a.m.

  The Senate returns to work May 21.

  President Trump will address a bipartisan “prison reform summit” in the East Room this morning, and is scheduled to have lunch with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer (also busy this week with U.S.-China trade talks). Trump later meets with António Guterres, secretary-general of the United Nations.

  Vice President Pence will deliver opening remarks in the East Room for the “conversation on prison reform.” Later today, he’ll travel to Indianapolis for a tax policy event, and fundraiser for Mike Braun, the GOP candidate for the Senate in Indiana; Josh Hawley, the GOP Senate candidate in Missouri; and Rep. Jim Renacci (R), who won the primary to run against Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in Ohio.

  The Bureau of Labor Statistics at 10 a.m. will release state employment and unemployment data for April.

   

  ELSEWHERE

  > Fox News gets first female CEO, names Suzanne Scott to top leadership position, by Joe Concha, The Hill.

  > Closing tech sector’s gender gap will take decades (especially at the top), by Jennifer Saba, Reuters Breakingviews.

  > Hawaii’s Kilauea volcano erupted from its summit before dawn Thursday, shooting ash about 30,000 feet into the sky, continuing a drama that closed roads, evacuated homes, and shuttered the Hawaii Volcanoes National Park earlier this month. (Phys.org news and US Geological Survey).  

  > Heart Failure: At St. Luke’s in Houston, patients suffer as a renowned heart transplant program loses its luster, by Mike Hixenbaugh of The Houston Chronicle and Charles Ornstein of ProPublica https://bit.ly/2KvL5ZZ.

  ***SPOTTED*** at the Capitol Visitors Center for the screening of the upcoming HBO documentary, “John McCain: For Whom the Bell Tolls,”: Sens. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), John Kennedy (R-La.), Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.), and Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.).

  The Hill’s Judy Kurtz has the write-up from the evening.

  THE CLOSER

  It’s Friday morning, so let’s lighten things up with puppets and princes.

  The Twitterverse shared the laughter yesterday as 5 minutes of outtakes from “Sesame Street” in 1977 made the rounds, retweeted and rediscovered via a YouTube segment (keep the sound turned up!). The Muppets joined the social media conversation yesterday because creator Jim Henson died 28 years ago this week.

  16 May 1990 Jim Henson, puppeteer (Sesame Street, Muppet Show), dies at 53-. pic.twitter.com/2rZ2h0NImQ

  — Ｈｉｓｔｏｒｙ (@HistoryTime_) May 16, 2018

  And finally … millions of people —- perhaps some of you —- will watch television coverage of the wedding of Prince Harry and Meghan Markle on Saturday. USA Today shares a TV lineup (and early-morning start times) for U.S. royals-watchers. Kensington Palace with news today that Prince Charles will walk the bride down the aisle. Cheers!